2008 Mobile Communications
It is almost certain that 3G will definitely meet consumers in 2008, and the first standard to catch our eye will be the TD-SCDMA standard with full independent intellectual property rights. Affected by various factors, it may still be difficult for 3G to be launched nationwide in 2008. However, consumers in the ten Olympic cities can experience the ultra-fast data speed of the 3G network earlier due to the hosting of the Olympics. Whether it's data downloading, online video calls, or live broadcasts of Olympic events, 3G will enter our lives in 2008, changing and enriching our lives. After the Olympics, we believe that China's 3G process will not stagnate but will develop faster instead. Moreover, unresolved industry conjectures such as the operator restructuring, splitting, and归属of the two other 3G standards besides TD-SCDMA will eventually be settled.
If the operation of 3G is born for the live broadcast of the Olympics, then mobile TV also becomes a new highlight in 2008 for the same reason. Although there is still no clear conclusion on which mobile TV standard will ultimately be adopted nationwide, at least in the Olympic cities, the fixed digital TV standard has already started operating and basically meets the demand for mobile phone broadcasting during the Olympics. In 2008, disputes surrounding mobile digital TV will continue. This super-sized cake, which is no less significant than 3G, will undoubtedly become a hotly contested focus among various interest groups.
There is no doubt that with the launch of new standards, the new market brought about by these standards will certainly become a major growth point in the mobile communications industry. At the very least, emerging 3G mobile terminals and mobile digital TV terminals will become key focuses for many terminal manufacturers. Meanwhile, the new content service areas led by these two standards will also become a brand-new growth point in the industry: the road has widened - 3G has arrived, the car speed has increased - mobile phones are being updated and upgraded, so related services must keep up accordingly.
Compared to the upward trend of standard updates and the overall industry environment, the mobile terminal market, which is most closely connected with consumers, presents a different and brutal picture. Objectively speaking, the capacity of China's mobile user market has exceeded 600 million. According to regular replacement ratios and the addition of new terminal markets, we estimate that the capacity of China's mobile terminal market in 2008 will exceed 300 million units! Just looking at the numbers, this is a figure that makes everyone envious, but in 2008, mobile phone manufacturers competing in the Chinese market will face many brutal battles, even close combat: the cancellation of the mobile phone production license approval system has greatly reduced the threshold for entering the mobile phone market. In 2008, we will surely see many unheard-of mobile phone brands appearing on the market. Traditional forces, off-brand armies, and new players will all fight fiercely in the terminal market. Perhaps later in 2008, we will witness a reshuffling similar to what happened in the MP3 player market a few years ago - even if such reshuffling does not occur in 2008, the mobile phone terminal market is likely to face a similar fate in 2009. By the end of 2008, how many large and small mobile phone manufacturers will still be standing tall?
Not only the manufacturers are closely related to the terminals, but changes in the channels also deserve attention. From what we see now, the current situation where professional communication stores, 3C stores, and mobile operators share the market equally might be broken in 2008. Stores like Suning and Gome are increasingly showing their strong growth momentum, and their control over the market is extremely noticeable. Regardless of how much share they will take from the terminal market channels, we believe that in 2008, besides operator-customized phones, there will also be customized phones from 3C dealers appearing before us: after all, strength brings sufficient say, plus the relaxation of policies, and in 2008, "anything is possible!" for channel providers.
This article originates from Pin-Dao Network. Original link: http://www.pin-dao.com/finances/200803050049.html