Thursday, the main contract of rebar futures 1205 opened at 4153 (yuan/ton, same below), with the highest test at 4194, and the lowest test at 4145. It closed at 4176, down by 18 or 0.48%. The trading volume was 676,000 lots, a decrease of 75,000 lots compared to the previous trading day. The position was 707,000 lots, an increase of 6,546 lots compared to the previous trading day, showing two consecutive days of position recovery. Currently, the long position is 246,000 lots, increasing by 11,000 lots in a single day; the short position is 208,000 lots, adding 6,877 lots in a single day. The daily range is 49, still in an active level. A small bullish candlestick appeared on the daily K-line, showing a bottom testing and rebounding then falling back. The combination of Wednesday's K-line still indicates a bearish outlook for the future steel prices, suggesting that a major adjustment is inevitable.
The overnight external market showed a bearish trend for steel prices. Among them, the dollar index regained its strength, suppressing London metals and causing significant losses, erasing the gains from Tuesday's market. Especially the LME copper showed a worse trend, as it fell after testing the upper edge of the bottom triangle, which will increase the possibility of breaking through the lower edge. If the LME copper breaks through the lower edge of the bottom triangle, it will trigger a new round of decline, which will have a negative impact on the entire commodity market. The European stock market, which has been rising for four consecutive trading days, fell again due to the recurrence of the Eurozone debt crisis, reflecting the difficulty for the international capital market to maintain a sustained upward trend in the short term. Specifically mentioning the dollar index, due to the rise in gold and oil prices and year-end hedging fund adjustments, the dollar index has shown a pause at a high level recently. It is expected to remain in a high-level fluctuation in the short term. Under this unfavorable situation, the steel price continued yesterday's weakness, opening low and declining further, once hitting a low of 4145 but found support from three combined supports and stabilized after fluctuations. It rebounded to a high of 4194, confirming the reverse pressure line trend, providing short sellers with selling positions, who re-entered the market, pushing the steel price back below the 4180 region.