Stock index fluctuations in the head market are declining, breaking through the bottom support requires observation ----- Analysis and prediction review on the night of November 23, Friday: (It is expected that the Shanghai Stock Index will consolidate with reduced fluctuations on Monday. The upward consolidation signal for the stock index is at 3280 points, and the upward fluctuation consolidation signal is at 3333 points. The weaker support downward is at 3241 points, and the stronger resistance upward is at 3352 points. The stocks discovered by Mr. Zhuo, such as Weiwei Shares and Weiyanshen Shares, have reached their daily limit. The reminder point of 3333 has become the benchmark for institutional operations.
The Shanghai Stock Index opened at 3308 points, quickly rising to 3320 points, then retraced to stabilize at 3310 points, and again rose steadily in two waves until it hit the wall at 3333 points and fell back. Approaching the noon closing, the stock index probed to 3309 points. Concerned about the lunch break, the afternoon opening saw a rebound to 3324 points before retreating. The prices of key stocks like PetroChina, Sinopec, and Rural Commercial Bank dropped, showing signs of intentional pressure on the stock index. The stock index probed to a minimum of 3305 points. The market did not show panic as the stock index consolidated between 3316 and 33010 points. Institutional participation pushed the stock index upward, and trading volume expanded accordingly. At 2:57 PM, the stock index encountered the sensitive point of 3333 again. Institutions aggressively pushed up the trading volume, which significantly increased. Ultimately, the stock index closed at 3338 points, reaching the highest point of the day, increasing by 30.32 points, with a rise of 0.92%. The turnover was 2054 billion yuan. The K-line showed a large bullish candlestick breaking upward, and the stock index once again set a new high for this round. However, it lacked the momentum and energy to attack upward, merely setting a new high through fluctuations. With the current upward trend still firm, whether the stock index can continue to push upward today still requires confirmation through tomorrow's closing observation.
For tonight, it is expected that the Shanghai Stock Index will experience inertial upward fluctuations or possibly adjust downward. The characteristics of fluctuations and downward trends may be unpredictable. The upward signal point is at 3352 points, resistance at 3374 points, weaker resistance around 3400 points (a quick drop to this level often results in excessive gains), consolidation support at 3310 points, and weaker support at 3280 points (standing at this position often leads to excessive losses).
Among the listed companies, 1382 stocks increased, 77 remained flat, and 294 decreased. The bulls controlled the market initiative, driving the head market higher. 26 stocks reached their daily limits. The food manufacturing sector surged by 4.11%, with Maotai Liquor, Weiwei Shares, and Lianhua Flavoring reaching their limits. Aquaculture and fisheries were up by 3.36%, with Dahu Stock, Dongfang Ocean, Yasheng Group, and Xinjiang Tianye leading the gains. Transportation equipment was up by 2.72%, with Dongfeng Technology and Dongfeng Motors reaching their limits, while Jianghuai Motors, Jinbei Motors, and Dimas Shares performed strongly. Nonferrous metals were up by 2.62%, trade and commerce by 2.52%, food and beverages by 2.42%, petrochemical refining by 2.52%, rubber products by 2.39%, non-ferrous metals by 2.38%, chemical products by 2.22%, and instruments by 2.11%. The commercial and chemical sectors deserve attention, with Luozhuhua, Chongqing Tianhua, Xufeng Chemicals, Haitai Development, Hualian Shares, Baihuabu, Hangzhou Department Store, and Wuhan Commerce showing signs of strength. The significant rise in heavy-weight stocks was the main reason for today's fluctuations. Real estate, financial insurance, energy coal, and steel sectors are consolidating in a strong position. Financial stocks like China Life Insurance, Shanxi Guotou, Bank of China, CITIC Securities, and China Trust are performing strongly. Keep an eye on the movement of Haitong Securities. The real estate sector has a rotation demand after long-term consolidation, with Wanke Vanke, Fenghua Shares, Zhejiang Guangsha, Wanye Enterprise, Huaye Real Estate showing strength. Stocks like Sunshine Property, Yue Hongyuan, Tianjin Logistics, Yinji Development, Gentleman Development, and Laiying Development have strong upward demands. Steel stocks like Baosteel have shown signs of a strong rally, including Tangsteel, Shaogang, Hanggang, Angang, Yuansteel Plates, and Maanshan Iron & Steel. These might present opportunities during tomorrow’s intraday fluctuations.
The decline and rise tonight were mainly due to Sinopec and PetroChina, whose short-term fluctuations have shaken out the heavyweights, but they are now looking to move higher, which should be positive for the stock index. Rural Commercial Bank adjusted for three days receiving support from the 10-day moving average and also has a rebound requirement, which could drive the index higher tomorrow.
Today's increase in the number of stocks with deep declines includes Wandada -2.37%, among others, like Tiankang Biotech, Zhonghui Medicine, Times New Materials, Chengxing Shares, Tianke Shares, Xindu Hotel, Shanghai Melon, etc. Due to the large adjustment, these are considered normal consolidations, a clear characteristic of a strong market. Therefore, today's stocks that spiked and then fell are more likely experiencing a washout than hitting bottom, so don't panic unnecessarily.
The stocks discovered on Friday, Weiwei Shares and Weiyanshen Shares, reached their limits, Old Cast Iron Pipe +4.5%, Hunan Jinhuan +3.86%, Public Communications +3.74%. Today's discovered stocks include CITIC Securities, Shenzhen Airport, China Construction, Weiyanshen Steel, Tangsteel, Sunshine Property, Yue Hongyuan, Gentleman Development, Foreigner Life Insurance, Wuhan Commerce, Chongqing Tianhua, Yaguo'er, Jinlong Shares. The stocks discovered by people are not necessarily good, readers should observe and confirm outside the market, based on today's intra-day stock price movements for learning and research purposes only, not as operational guidance. It is hoped that readers select some backup operation stocks during the hot market period for exchange, there are no experts in the stock market, only winners and losers, wishing readers to become winners.
Trading Strategy:
1. When the stock index approaches 3300 points, consider adding positions appropriately, flexibly increasing short-term positions. In principle, adopt a strategy of chasing dips in popular stocks, maintaining a general position of around 70% with a floating range of 30%, responding flexibly to the stock index's fluctuations. Avoid full positions to manage risks using capital management.
2. Prevent the risk of sudden spikes and drops in individual holdings, design your stop-loss and take-profit points carefully each day. Prioritize taking profits over stop-losses, combining both strategies for quick reactions and rapid decision-making. Key to successful execution is precision and speed.
Relevant theme articles:
Market activity updates on August 20th, recent company announcements, fourth-quarter fund additions and increases in 2009, IPO subscription guides issued on the evening of August 14th, last week's minor investment events, and market activity updates on August 18th.