It started with the production of playing cards. Finally, why did the yen appreciate and by how much? 300%. Can this still be considered the result of the Plaza Accord's forced requirement for Japan to appreciate its currency? The central idea is one: ensuring growth while suppressing inflation is unavoidable unless the property market begins economic soft landing now. What are the mid-term holding benchmarks that can be selected from the basics of the securities market, such as bonds and some stocks? As for inflation expectations, I won't judge whether he loves me or not. Prevent spreading terrifying information!!!!!! At least, Lao Tang's methods are definitely different from ours. We only pray that China does not become Japan. After all, Japan is a country labeled as capitalist, it could afford the lost decade, but China cannot. Only, Germans don't pretend, Japanese do, so domestically, Germany shows slow growth while Japan shows recession. As you have said, the rationality lies in development. This is actually universal. Temple calculation, I believe, is more than just a simple thought. Here, I added quotation marks. Why? "Negative翁" refers to your liquidity being in a contraction state, not exceeding income levels and prematurely over-consuming. This topic has become complex, like on http://www.haiyou100.com: http://www.haiyou100.com/20120202_199994.html. One point is undeniable: the sudden appreciation of the yen caused losses that were fatal to Japan's economy. This topic has become complicated, there are too few effective investment options available to the domestic masses! Let's skip this part and prepare to enter the exchange phase. In China, institutions always raise funds, never considering retail investor interests, they won't give up a bone. The financial market's supporting mechanisms are extremely underdeveloped. The appearance of real estate speculation groups indicates that besides speculating in real estate, the masses have very few investment options. If we consider another angle, after collecting two trillion dollars in reserves and printing 16 trillion RMB, this is what maintains the exchange rate at 6.8. If free conversion was allowed, the local currency would have appreciated long ago. Reasons: 1) An export-oriented economic policy can fully absorb employment. Some things, even after a long time, when remembered feel like yesterday. Especially during the end of the Han dynasty and the Jin dynasty, the Kongming family was most numerous. It should be said that the cheap export-oriented model of economic growth is difficult to sustain globally in the long term. There must be an international struggle process involving local currency appreciation, reducing exports, focusing on internal demand, and industrial transformation. Because I still have a mortgage to pay. If inflation accelerates, I would rather convert my assets into a form that can retain value than pay off the mortgage. Because if everyone plays the game of preserving value, no one will actually preserve value. Below is a quote from Xiao Lou Yi Ye Ting Qiu Yu on the 47th floor: Below is a quote from Duansl on the 42nd floor: Below is a quote from Navalmanchw on the 40th floor: Below is a quote from Duansl on the 36th floor: Below is a quote from Navalmanchw on the 34th floor: Below is a quote from Duansl on the 32nd floor: The Plaza Accord is considered the beginning of Japan's decline. I think it's a case of mistaken causality. This topic has also become complex. One point is undeniable: the sudden appreciation of the yen caused losses that were fatal to Japan's economy. Below is a quote from Duansl on the 32nd floor: Below is a quote from Helen426 on the 19th floor: Below is a quote from Duansl on the 18th floor: Everything waits until April 15th, observe the exchange rate changes, then continue. Workers in the blood sweat factories in the Zhujiang Delta, using $200-300 monthly wages, working 12 hours a day, consuming three times the resources of the West, produced large quantities of cheap daily necessities! The Bretton Woods system and our blood sweat factories! The three functions of money are similar to the separation of powers in the Western system. Its partial life ended due to the system established post WWII when the U.S. forced their allies to link the dollar directly to primary currency! A country's currency value fundamentally stems from all of the nation's production activities! For example, pre-WWII Germany, through restricting and blocking the actions of the international currency manipulation group led by American financial conglomerates, concentrated national resources to restructure production, enabling Germany to quickly escape the economic crisis. Rapid progress in national industry and agriculture quickly halted the insane devaluation of the German Mark. Jewish financial groups destroy a nation's economic system starting by shorting the country's currency in circulation! Nazi leaders saw through this clearly. They began resisting the shorting of Germany by restoring large-scale national production, with evident results. In just a few years, Germany's machine tools, alloy steel, aircraft, and aluminum production leaped to world first place. During the 2008 financial crisis, the U.S. rapidly transferred the crisis by mass printing of currency! This is easy to understand: Will draw the bow full moon Northwest look shoot wolves To run fast, one must absorb more information sources, learn more foundational theoretical knowledge in various fields, and think more. In the central bank's 2007 asset statement, foreign currencies account for about 62% of its total, meaning the credit of the local currency is realized through foreign currency reserves. The current issue is that the real estate industry has already held the national economy hostage. No matter how high the GDP is, it conflicts with the basic requirements of ordinary people: living in peace and prosperity. Regardless of whether China's RMB appreciates or not, the U.S. has quietly entered the village - the dollar has already depreciated, though not significantly. I only listen to lectures, dare not comment, and write learning reflections after listening. Since I already own housing, I am more concerned with inflation and the problem of wealth shrinking. I'll stop here for a moment, as speaking alone is tiring. Interaction is best. I think the Plaza Accord was something Japan secretly desired. How much did the Plaza Accord require the yen to appreciate? 30%. I believe the active preservation method should be to act as a "negative翁". Why don't we abandon mandatory settlement, open foreign exchange control, and just settle? Our RMB has appreciated relative to the dollar, but has depreciated relative to oil, gold, and diamonds. I'll just see how many care about their own wealth. I cautiously decide to introduce the topic of real estate. I continue, the U.S.'s disingenuous logic towards China in 2008-2009 was as follows: The price of our country's agricultural products is astonishingly low! This is the direct factor ensuring the quality of life for low-income individuals, which is an abnormal phenomenon. Talking about investment means, investing in gold is the least efficient. Not feasible! Investing in real estate, basically has little relation to common people, unless there are large-scale property speculation groups with over 500 households, like the Wenzhou property speculation model, which may also involve illegal fundraising suspicions. Not feasible! Stocks, futures? Haha! Forget it, not suitable for the average person. Facing RMB appreciation, it's actually a false proposition; appreciation relative to the dollar isn't necessarily appreciation. The price of our country's agricultural products is astonishingly low! This is the direct factor ensuring the quality of life for low-income individuals, which is an abnormal phenomenon. My personal view is that increases in oil and electricity prices will inevitably be transmitted to basic agricultural products within about three months. My personal view is that appreciation is inevitable, otherwise it would lead to a trade war. It's just a question of slow versus fast appreciation. Friends involved in foreign trade and the overall upstream industrial chain should think more about this. I admit, this topic is quite broad, hard to explain clearly, and hard to control direction. Personal views, inevitably inviting ridicule, any mistakes please point out. The structure might be loose. Just consider it as learning notes. There will be many references, but quoting is not a bad thing, the key is that the quoted material aligns with your thoughts. Preparing in advance is talking about this remarkable person. The remarkable feature of this person is that when escaping, they had their family cut the cart tracks short and wrap them with iron early. Deeply understanding the joke of "when the bear comes," I just need to run faster than you. Why must the reply content also be placed within the quotation box? Many people aren't used to it. Using brainpower, just wanting to keep a few small coins in hand. The sorrow of commoners. When investing in gold, I refer to physical gold, not paper gold. The value of gold lies in preservation. There have been statistics showing that gold underperformed against the dollar from the 1960s to the 1980s because it was also America's golden age. Investing in gold is about risk prevention, not investment returns. When investing in gold, I refer to physical gold, not paper gold. The value of gold lies in preservation. There have been statistics showing that gold underperformed against the dollar from the 1960s to the 1980s because it was also America's golden age. Investing in gold is about risk prevention, not investment returns. Investing in real estate, basically has little relation to common people, unless there are large-scale property speculation groups with over 500 households, like the Wenzhou property speculation model, which may also involve illegal fundraising suspicions. Not feasible! Mentioned in the preface. I admire Tian Dan, this remarkable person. Preface: Writing such a sensitive topic, as economics inevitably touches on policy, has no other intention, neither criticism nor suggestion. Opportunities always come to those who are prepared, similarly, risks always avoid those who are prepared. Be prepared for danger in times of peace. A few days ago, I read history books, Tian Dan was really remarkable. So, I boldly predict, the local currency will inevitably appreciate. The code is that foreign countries must relax high-tech restrictions, increase industrial transfer intensity, and domestically increase distribution intensity. To maintain stability, this kind of policy or can be called bottle-feedingism. This is the only way to reconcile. Talking about investment means, investing in gold is the least efficient. Not feasible! It will definitely collapse. By then, local real estate will rise to 6000-8000 yuan per square meter. Disclaimer: I am not an economist, and there is a significant gap in this area compared to the original poster. Practical feelings, mostly adults here, judge for yourselves. Besides inflation caused by our foreign exchange policy, what other pressures does appreciation bring us? Three, the Federal Reserve supported the bad debts of various financial companies and the vast and perfect American social security welfare system by wildly printing dollars, this distorted monetary function under the Bretton Woods system ensured the shameless primitive plundering of Chinese sweatshop workers and resources by Americans! As long as dollars are printed without restraint, American unemployed wanderers can still live leisurely, and Chinese sweatshop workers will still sweat! Why did we attack the dollar's world currency status so strongly in 2009? Whether it was effective or not, at least we made a sound! Of course, whether it was effective or not requires a global reshuffle of technological productivity and soft power! Within 20 years, I cannot see us having the ability to break the deadlock, being able to hold onto the current situation is already good enough, let alone rebuilding! Breakdown is impossible, let alone "standing"? Our future lies in our talent cultivation system and high-end industrial innovation mechanism. Our current advantage is only the population size advantage, and with the premature arrival of aging, this advantage is also precarious! I have repeatedly said that the root cause of China making Western countries fear and dislike is proposing to allow 1.3 billion people to live like Westerners, which is terrifying because the world's pie is only so big. On this issue, we have no retreat, cannot openly sacrifice the future quality of life of our nationals to gain a despicable temporary peace with the West. Rescuing the sweatshop factory situation starts from improving the industrial chain level, high-endizing China's social productivity to destroy the currently nominally defunct Bretton Woods system. If it creates a large unemployed population, it will severely affect stability, which is an unbearable burden. If I am not mistaken, this number is disclosed for the first time. The situation is very serious. If inflation is small, then, money must be used to repay the mortgage as soon as possible. If the property price continues at the current rate for another three years? If externally appreciating and internally devaluing, how do we preserve value? Japan's ten years of decline were actually ten years of transformation. Japan's export model is fundamentally unsustainable. Under the condition where RMB appreciates externally and devalues internally. How do common people preserve their hard-earned money... Under the condition where RMB appreciates externally and devalues internally... A few days ago, there was a meeting, saying that this year we will continue to implement a loose monetary policy. Loose monetary policy also represents continued growth in money supply. It is also very likely to lead to increased speculative capital and intensified speculation... These are textbook statements, consult them if anything happens, not my responsibility. In fact, the general idea is not to retain too much physical currency in hand, to prevent "value" from plummeting. In fact, taking Germany as an example, both are defeated countries, both have experienced economic recovery through export-oriented policies. Ultimately, both became economic powerhouses. In fact, the above preservation methods are too theoretical and may be difficult to implement in practice. You this viewpoint I mentioned above, just didn't dare to say it too explicitly. Oral secret information network (http://www.koaomi.com): If we include Japan's investments in Africa and South America, Japan is also slowly growing. At that time, there were two paths. One, a large-scale wage increase. Simultaneously, a significant increase in agricultural product purchase prices. Otherwise, agriculture would collapse. Because farming income would be far lower than labor income. Actual result: Large-scale inflation. To welcome this result, wage increases must begin now. That is, inflation would start now. Facing RMB appreciation, it's actually a false proposition; appreciation relative to the dollar isn't necessarily appreciation. The dollar has significantly depreciated internationally relative to gold, oil, and major agricultural products. Buying a house, actually my meaning is rigid demand, which can be used as a hedge. Because if large-scale inflation occurs, the actual purchasing power of physical currency will greatly decrease. The general idea is not to retain too much physical currency in hand, to prevent "value" from plummeting. Buying a house, actually my meaning is rigid demand, which can be used as a hedge. Because if large-scale inflation occurs, the actual purchasing power of physical currency will greatly decrease. On the floor, someone said that Old Wang could take RMB to the central bank to exchange for dollars and use it to import raw materials. At this point, the foreign exchange control rules come into effect. Due to fear of the dollar impacting the RMB's position, foreign exchange cannot be freely converted. Let me add, once the RMB appreciates, the foreign direct investment part of assets will run away quickly, backed by the government behind them, would you dare not exchange? Meanwhile, why does the country vigorously develop the real estate industry? It's to absorb so much RMB. Money concentrated in the hands of the rich, no matter how great their consumption capacity is, the pressure on inflation is still small. Concentrated in the hands of ordinary people, haha. After talking for a while, sometimes appreciating, sometimes depreciating, what exactly are you talking about? Being indecisive isn't it? No choice, I can only reveal the viewpoint first: external appreciation, internal depreciation! Then slowly continue writing. Actually, quite confused, no outline written, got too carried away, finding materials while writing, thinking wherever it goes, disorder is just one word. Now, let's talk about why the RMB has appreciation pressure? On the floor, generally speaking, there are two types of currency mechanisms. One is backed by national credit. Like the dollar. The other is pegged to the dollar. Here, I want to add a point. The issuance of the dollar is controlled by Congress, not by the U.S. government. The issuance rights of the dollar are granted to the Federal Reserve by Congress. The reserve banks in the Federal Reserve are basically private banks. The issuance rights are in their hands. The issuance mechanism of the dollar is that the government issues bonds, issued globally, and the Federal Reserve buys as many bonds as it issues dollars. - Stop here, no detailed discussion. Interested parties can find their own materials. Theoretically, a country's exchange rate is determined by its economic strength. Currency itself reflects a country's credit, and the currency of a strong country is bound to be strong. Dancing with shackles on, can you sprint? On the floor, why is this issue exposed now? We have implemented this policy for nearly 30 years. There are 3 reasons. Geopolitically: the collapse of the old Yalta system, the U.S. has abandoned the traditional balance of power method. Can the Far East anchor still exist? Economically: the outbreak of the subprime crisis, the U.S. unemployment rate has increased, the loan consumption method is no longer feasible. Before the U.S. finds a new growth direction, it must revive domestic processing industries, not just high-tech industries. Culturally traditionally: the development of news information, foreign government pressures also come from domestic blood sweat factory information reaching abroad. Foreign citizens deeply resent low-standard factories causing their unemployment. Let me add, we talked about WTO entry for over ten years, the greatest pressure was on labor rights protection and environmental protection.