Stock index volatility leads to upward break, further upward borrowing requires observation ----- November 23, Friday analysis prediction review: (It is expected that the Shanghai Composite Index will increase its consolidation on Monday. The signal for upward consolidation of the stock index is 3280 points, and the signal for upward consolidation is 3333 points. Stronger support downwards is 3241 points, and stronger resistance upwards is 3352 points. In Henan, the main discovery stocks are VV shares and Yan Shen shares, which have hit the limit. The reminder point 3333 became the benchmark for institutional operations. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3308 points, quickly surged to 3320 points, archived at 3310 points and stabilized again, then moved down after two waves of upward defense hitting the wall at 3333 points and declining. Near noon, the stock index probed to 3309 points, showing concerns during lunchtime. In the afternoon, it rebounded to 3324 points but fell back. During this period, the share prices of China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and Rural Commercial Bank dropped, showing signs of intentional pressure on the stock index. The stock index probed to a minimum of 3305 points, and the market did not show panic as the stock index consolidated between 3316 points and 33010 points. Institutional entry promoted the upward movement of the stock index, accompanied by an expansion in trading volume. At 2:57 pm, the stock index encountered the sensitive point of 3333 points again. The institutional push caused a noticeable reduction in trading volume. Ultimately, the stock index closed at 3338 points, reaching the highest point of the day, rising 30.32 points with an amplitude of 0.92%, and a trading volume of 205.4 billion yuan. The K-line showed a large bullish candlestick breaking upwards, creating new highs for this round, but lacked the momentum and energy to attack downwards. It was merely a new high created through vibration, seemingly lacking solid justification. Considering the continuous decline of the +DI in the DMI technical indicators of the stock index night chart and the conflicting situation of the 60-minute KDJ golden cross moving upwards, whether the stock index can continue to attack upwards tomorrow still needs confirmation through observation after tomorrow's opening. However, the mid-to-long-term upward trend of the stock index remains unwavering.
It is expected that tonight’s Shanghai Composite Index may experience either a volatile rebound after a quick drop or an automatic adjustment followed by another upward vibration, mainly characterized by downward vibrations. The upward signal point is 3352 points, the resistance is 3374 points, weaker resistance is around 3400 points (a fast drop to this level might be an excessive loss stop point), the vibration support is 3310 points, and weaker support is 3280 points (standing at this level might be excessively beneficial).
Among the two markets, 1382 stocks rose, 77 remained unchanged, and 294 fell, indicating that the bulls controlled the market initiative, pushing the head market higher. 26 stocks hit their upper limits, with the food manufacturing sector increasing by 4.11%. Jin Jing Gong Jiu, VV shares, and Lianhua Wei Jing all hit their upper limits. Aquaculture and fishing increased by 3.36%, with Dahuhu Shares, Dongfang Ocean, Asia Prosperity Group, and Xinjiang Tianye having the largest gains. Transportation equipment increased by 2.72%, with Dongfeng Technology and Dongfeng Automobile hitting their upper limits, while Jianghuai Automobile, Jinbei Automobile, and Dimas Shares weakened. Non-ferrous metals increased by 2.62%, commerce and trade by 2.52%, food and beverage by 2.42%, petrochemical refining by 2.52%, rubber products by 2.39%, ferrous metals by 2.38%, and chemical products by 2.22%. Instruments and meters increased by 2.11%. The commerce and trade and chemical sectors, which deserve attention, showed strengthening trends in Liantianhua, Chitianhua, Xufeng Chemical Agriculture, Haitai Development, Hualian Shares, Guangbai Shares, Hangzhou Department Store, and Wugang Progress. The significant reversal of heavy-weight stocks was the main reason for today's volatility. The real estate, financial security, energy coal, and steel sectors were in strong consolidation. Financial stocks such as China Life, Shaanxi Investment, Bank of China, CITIC Securities, and China Trust strengthened. Pay attention to the trend of Haitong Securities' dual listing, which could lead to significant excavation. The real estate sector has a demand for rotation excavation after long-term consolidation, with Wan Jia Wan Jia, Feng Hua Shares, Zhejiang Guangsha, Wan Ye Enterprise, and Hua Ye Property strengthening. Meanwhile, Yangguang Shares, Yue Hongyuan, Tian Tian Liu, Yin Ji Progress, Gentleman Business, Lai Yin Business, etc., showed strong upward demands. Steel stocks represented by Baotou Iron & Steel have shown signs of forceful excavation, including Tangsteel, Shaoguan Iron & Steel, Hanggang, Northern Iron & Steel, Yuansteel Plates, and Yansteel Shares. These could present short-term opportunities in today's market. Today's stock index decline and rise were both caused by Sinopec and PetroChina, whose current offline vibrations have cleaned up heavy chips, making them look more likely to rise, positively impacting the stock index. Rural commercial banks adjusted for three days and received support from the 10-day moving average, also showing signs of upward rebound, potentially driving the stock index to break upwards tomorrow. Today, there were more declining stocks with deeper declines, such as Wanben Da -2.37%, along with other stocks like Tian Kang Biology, Zhonghui Medicine, Times Old Materials, Chengxing Shares, Tianke Shares, Xin Du Hotel, and Shanghai Melon. Due to larger adjustments, these all belong to normal consolidations, which are clear characteristics of a strong stock market. Therefore, for stocks that experienced a high retracement today, washing out rather than bottoming out should be considered less alarming, and one should not scare oneself into panic.
On Friday, discovered stocks like VV shares and Yan Shen shares hit their upper limits, with Old Casting Pipe +4.5%, Hunan Jin Huan +3.86%, and Public Communication +3.74%. Stocks discovered today include CITIC Securities, Shenzhen Airport, China Construction, Yansteel Shares, Tangsteel, Yangguang Shares, Yue Hongyuan, Gentleman Business, Foreigner Life, Wuhan Progress, Chi Land, Yago Er, Jinlong Shares. Discovered stocks may not necessarily be good; readers can confirm through intraday observation, taking the intraday stock price trend as the standard, only for learning, research, and application, not as operational advice. Readers are encouraged to select some backup operation stocks when the stock market is hot for mutual exchange. There are no experts in the stock market, only winners and losers. Wishing readers become winners.
Trading strategy:
1. When the stock index tops near 3300 points, consider moderate position reduction and flexibly adjust short-term positions. Under normal circumstances, maintain 70% position with a fluctuation of 30%. Flexibly adjust the position according to the stock index's offline fluctuations but avoid full positions to manage risks.
2. Avoid the risk of sudden sharp rises and falls in individual stocks during the holding process, similar to riding an investment elevator. Design non-elastic stop-loss and take-profit points daily for your held stocks, prioritizing profit-taking and using stop-loss as auxiliary measures. Combine high sales with standing stop-losses to ensure rapid reactions and decisive actions, with key selection points being accurate and actions swift.
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Stock index volatility leading to upward breakthrough still requires observation ----- November 23 evening
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