The 5-day moving average suppresses the stock index and hides the upward trend again ---- May 20th. Last night's guess review: It is expected that the stock index will vibrate and then go down. The vibration support is at 2567 points, and the weaker support is at 2547 points. The resistance for downward rebound is at 2623 points, and the weaker resistance is near the 10-day moving average at 2641 points. Pay attention to the formation and involvement of rebound hotspots and the performance of heavyweight stocks on the stock index.
The closing price of the Shanghai Composite Index was 2571 points, with a low opening of 16 points. Then, it went up in the fifth wave and met resistance at 2609 points, clearly suppressed by the 5-day moving average. Two high points of 2609 were left on the chart, starting the adjustment. Afterward, it probed 2582 points and resisted a strong rebound. At 1:11 PM, it probed to a position similar to the morning low point of 2567 points, resisted and rebounded to 2581 points, fell back, and then probed to 2560 points, creating a new low for the whole day. Rebounded to 2574 points but failed to turn the stock index red. At 2:30 PM, another volume drop appeared, driving the stock index down to 2551 points. The market closed at 2555 points, barely closing above the closing price of the bullish candle on May 18 when it probed low and rose. Although the stock index created a new low, it avoided deteriorating the chart pattern, making the next day’s trend uncertain. The whole day saw an increase of 31.87 points, a rise of 1.23%, with a trading volume of 73.9 billion yuan. The K-line showed a positive hammer indicating no further decline. The trading volume accompanied the contraction. The daily technical indicators slightly worsened due to today's drop of 38 points. If there are no significant adverse news tonight, the stock index may attempt to rise again tomorrow.
It is expected that the Shanghai Composite Index will continue to seek support while moving downwards under favorable conditions. Initial support is at 2529 points, and weaker support is at 2500 points. The rebound resistance is at 2604 points, and stronger rebound resistance is at 2646 points. It cannot be ruled out that there might be a downward gap tomorrow, which would be the fourth gap if it appears. Attention should be paid to observing the trend on the board, which could bring good or bad changes.
There were 268 rising stocks, 122 flat stocks, and 1471 falling stocks in both markets. The long side's resistance was weak compared to the powerful short side. Today, four new stocks were listed: N Hai Mo closed at 37.18 yuan (+12.67%), P/E ratio 441 times; N Jin Fu closed at 33.96 yuan (-5.67 yuan), P/E ratio 56.4 times; N Ao Ke closed at 76.58 yuan (-9.91%), P/E ratio 114 times; N Heng Xin closed at 39.28 yuan (+1.29%), P/E ratio 81.63 times. Two stocks fell below their issue prices on the first day and are expected to continue declining. The large issuance of new shares has created a bubble, bringing risks and pressures to an already fragile market. Only two stocks hit the upper limit: Fu Xiu Bei Fang and Jiang Zhong Xi Ni. The stocks with the largest declines were mainly cement construction stocks such as Qi Lian Shan, Nan Xiu Jian Cai, Xiao Yuan Gu Fen, Ta Pai Group, and Hai Luo Xing Cai. They were affected by the decline in real estate stocks and rebounded after being oversold today, but they do not have the ability to sustain a rebound. Among all sectors, only the metal sector turned red, while others remained green. The sectors with smaller declines were timber furniture, instruments, and forestry livestock fishing. The sectors with larger declines were ferrous metals, financial insurance, and energy coal. From the perspective of theme concepts, the sectors holding and equipment manufacturing turned red, but it was not an active long-term situation. There were five stocks hitting the lower limit today: Lan Zhou Guan Bai, Xin Zhong Ji, Jin Shan Gu Fen, Jin Yuan Jin Zhan, and Ke Mian Mu Ye, showing that the strong stocks had completed adjustments and started a new round of declines. Funds further withdrew from the market, and investors' confidence was once again hit.
Previously introduced stocks like Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. (600019), Huashen Chemical Co., Ltd. (600426), Meiling Electric Appliances Co., Ltd. (000521), Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. (600688), Jiangsu Sunshine Group Co., Ltd. (600220), and Lute A (000726) maintained strength and can continue to be watched. Today, we noticed Ansteel Co., Ltd. (000898), Hisense Electronics Holdings Co., Ltd. (600060), China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Corporation Limited (000951), and China Railway Construction Corporation Limited (601186). When the stock index stabilizes, buying at low levels is always the operating principle.
Ultimately, whether this stock is good depends on individual judgment. This is akin to a blind person predicting fortune-telling. These are my personal views summarized for learning and research purposes and may provide operational references.
Trading strategy: For foreign holdings, continue to add positions when encountering resistance. Offline, you can pay attention to rebound-digging stocks and blue-chip stocks with low market-to-earnings ratios and increasing performance. Keep the position quality around 50%. Long-term investors, if choosing stocks with good trading volumes and potential, can adjust the position size to a level where they can control the risk, but must never be fully invested or completely empty-handed. 2. Select good rebound hotspot stocks, observe energy, potential, and space, trade fast, enter and exit quickly, and grab opportunities. If it doesn't rise, sell quickly. Appropriately grasp the opportunities for offline rebounds during adjustments. 3. Any position held must set stop-loss orders and execute them promptly when necessary. Go down to lose, go up to win, ensuring the safety and profitability of your own funds. 4. Monitor the market in real time, analyze and judge immediately, and adjust the trading strategy accordingly. One of the main reasons for ordinary investors' losses is not having enough time to care about their investments.
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5-day moving average suppresses stock index and hides upward trend again - May 20th evening
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