**Complete Classification of Today's Market Trend Template (2011-01-19 16:17:58)**
First, it must be clear that the rally starting from 2683 has already formed the first central pivot on a one-minute chart today. The pivot range is (2703, 2714). The first upward move starting from 2703 broke above this pivot range, so technically speaking, the subsequent strong pull-up is completely normal. The rally starting from 2703 has not finished by the market close today. Since today closed at the highest point, whether this segment has finished cannot yet be determined from a shape analysis perspective. However, what can be confirmed is that after this segment ends, there will inevitably be a retest of the (2703, 2714) pivot. If the retest does not break this pivot, it will form another third-class buying point at the one-minute level, which can be judged in real-time. Analyzing purely from the strength angle, the rally starting from 2703 has already shown an internal divergence phenomenon within the segment. Therefore, even if tomorrow’s trend rises, there will inevitably be a retest action; comprehensively analyzing both shape and technical aspects, we can conclude that there will certainly be a retest action targeting the lower pivot tomorrow. Since the pivot level is only at the one-minute level, even if a third-class buying point appears, it does not necessarily guarantee profitability on a T+1 basis, but for intra-day hedging, it definitely works.
In fact, complete classification is not complicated. The principle to grasp, as mentioned yesterday, is to look ahead and behind. Today, I will provide a template for everyone to see.
Firstly, standing at the one-minute level, the retest after the line segment rise starting from 2703 today will inevitably result in two situations: 1. No formation of a third buy point. 2. Formation of a third buy point.
If situation 1 occurs, operations can continue according to the central pivot oscillation method. However, since the index significantly deviated from the pivot today, the probability of situation 2 occurring is higher from a probabilistic perspective. This absolutely does not mean that situation 1 cannot occur. Tomorrow is the release period for the 2010 annual and December economic data. If the data is extremely pessimistic, the occurrence of situation 1 would be very likely, and theoretically, even if the pivot is left without any retest forming a third buy point, it could directly retreat back to the pivot from a high position. Of course, this is purely theoretical discussion, and such cases may rarely occur in reality.
For situation 2, once a third buy point appears, three scenarios will inevitably face: 2.1 Non-divergence pull-up to new highs, 2.2 Divergence pull-up to new highs, 2.3 Not reaching new highs.
Note that in case 2.3, there is no need to specifically discuss divergence-type or non-divergence-type pull-ups because there are no new highs, and thus no divergence. For the complete classification of situation 2, the following judgment can be made: the strongest scenario is 2.1, where the strongest among 2.1 is a direct pull up to 2770, making the five-minute level three sell invalid; the second strongest is 2.21, i.e., divergence-type pull-up to new highs but new highs reaching 2770, allowing five-minute oscillation to maintain, but short-term oscillatory adjustments are inevitable. As for not reaching new highs and divergence-type pull-ups failing to reach 2770, these are the weakest scenarios.
I don't care how the market chooses. I only know that after complete classification, when the trend unfolds, I know how to operate in real-time. Friends who followed my advice to replenish near 2688 points yesterday should always be aware of the appearance of selling points. When they appear, it's time to realize profits and start waiting for the next opportunity to come.
The life and death of trends, understanding their life and death, utilizing their life and death, that is great wisdom, that is true speculation.
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Adding a reply from me into the main text, the question is quite representative, hopefully helpful to everyone.
**Question from Jingting Jushi (2011-01-19 16:44:45):**
When the market reached 2714 today, compared with the rise from 2683 yesterday, it didn't reach a new high, indicating the weakest type, because it should have gone down further, possibly even breaking below 2683. So, I exited at that point. Subsequently, the three-bar correction to 2704 couldn't confirm the end of the segment in time, leading to untimely replenishment.
Regarding intra-day hedging, judging the end point requires very high precision. How can one do well in this? Thank you, and wishing good health to the blogger!
**Blogger's Reply (2011-01-19 17:07:43):**
Although the strength comparison is indeed weaker than the rise from 2683 to 2715, the 2714 being lower than 2715 cannot strictly compare through divergence methods. The correction at 2714 was caused by a small divergence within its internal trend. In other words, if the ending position of the 2714 segment were replaced with 2716, the correction amplitude would increase because the decline ending merely at 2714 is due to its own structural problems, which is entirely normal. If it ended at 2716, it wouldn't be its own problem but rather external systemic factors, meaning the latter compared to the former shows segment divergence. From a trading perspective, at the one-minute level, if it reached 2716, it would be considered an "out-well," although it's a low-level segment class "well," but still a "well." If it's 2714, it doesn't count as an out-well, at least not on the one-minute chart, but it might on a lower level chart. Essentially, hedging is best done under out-well conditions. Wells are divided into levels: small wells for hedging, medium wells for reducing or adding positions, large wells for liquidating or fully entering positions (note that wells are divided into two types: bull wells and bear wells). The larger the cycle chart, the greater the impact of wells, whether up or down. This belongs to advanced courses. There are many ways to construct wells, for example, with segments 12345 (odd numbers represent upward segments, even numbers downward, 234 constructing the central pivot), there are N ways to construct wells. Extracting 135, if 3 is higher than 1, the middle is a segment, if 3's strength is less than 1, then it constructs a small well. If 5 appears and is higher than 3, and 5's strength is less than 1 and also less than 3, then for this 12345, 5 constructs a large well. My general operation is to make money using wells. Due to time constraints, I cannot finish explaining, but I will talk more about this advanced course later.
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**Thought-provoking Question:** Please classify the nature of the 2837 point discussed in my reply, based on the one-minute chart.
Wells can be completely classified, let alone trends. This is the powerful aspect of the Chan Central Philosophy theory. Of course, the Chan Central Philosophy theory is absolutely a continuously developing theory, a discipline with life, and forever with life.