Suddenly, as if the spring breeze came overnight, pear blossoms burst forth on thousands of trees. Repeat this sentence seven times.
Under the impact of the Q1 macro-economic data and tomorrow's launch of the stock index futures, the index presented a narrow range consolidation pattern on Thursday. The divergence of heavy-weight individual stocks in the market constrained the space for the index to expand upwards. Meanwhile, the continued shrinkage of trading volume made the观望atmosphere in both markets more intense again. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed with a doji star line, continuing to stabilize above all the moving averages. The direction of the market trend is expected to be decided tomorrow.
In terms of news, the economic data published by the market showed that the CPI rose 2.2% in Q1 this year, and 2.4% in March. The GDP total value in Q1 2010 was 8,057.7 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 11.9%, which was slightly lower than the market-expected warning line of 12%. With the recovery of the economy, a certain numerical value of GDP growth rate helps the recovery of the economy and further promotes the operation of the index. A certain range of inflation existing in the early stage of market recovery is not only not bearish for the market, but can even play a role in boosting the market. However, under the current environment, from the continuous months of data we have seen, combined with the impact brought by last year's massive credit, there is currently a tendency for the CPI growth momentum to further expand. In this case, investors' expectations of interest rate hikes have once again become an uncertain factor present in the market in the future. Secondly, online games, the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in the morning of April 14 showed that in March 2010, the house sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities across the country rose 11.7% year-on-year. On the same day, the State Council executive meeting pointed out that the problem of housing price increases being too fast in some cities was relatively prominent, and it was necessary to resolutely curb the fast rise in housing prices. This also made the real estate sector in the recent market become the target of public criticism. On one hand, the withdrawal of funds led by social security, and on the other hand, the potential policy pressure on it at any time, all made the real estate sector a dangerous area that people dare not touch. The break-down trend of OCT during the session and the desire of heavy-weight leaders like Poly Real Estate and Vanke A to break their platforms, all hidden their needs for further adjustments.
On the board, second-board stocks and GEM stocks continued to be obvious short-selling varieties in the recent market, greatly hurting market sentiment. On the other hand, due to the influence of the upcoming opening of stock index futures on the A-share market, many funds were uneasy and the atmosphere of observation was intense. However, because the valuations of current heavy-weight stocks are reasonable, the space for the index to fall in the short term will not be too large. Therefore, the overall upward trend of the market still continues, although small-cap stocks may gradually withdraw from the market's focus due to the jitteriness of heavy-weights in the near future. Technically, the Thursday doji star line stabilized above all the moving averages. With the dispersion of the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, there is hope for a short-term upward trend to emerge. The fact that the short-term moving averages were broken during the session on Thursday and then recovered again also shows the clear support below in the market. Tomorrow is the 13th trading day after the index broke through 3100 points. With the introduction of stock index futures, the market that has undergone recent low-volume adjustments has already begun preparing to break through 3200 points. Judging from the signs of a golden cross in the short-term daily KDJ indicators, as long as the market can get a significant increase in trading volume, the upward steps of the market in the short term will be opened up.
Currently, in terms of market risks, the valuations of some small-cap stocks have already overestimated the future growth of earnings. The seesaw effect caused by heavy-weight sectors and non-heavy-weight sectors will continue to accelerate the divergence of small and medium-sized cap stocks in the future. However, under the policy drive of the country's vigorous development of strategic emerging industries, for the future market, stocks with good development prospects and large profit improvement space will continue to perform strongly in the future market. At the same time, under the inflation expectation, related varieties will also attract market attention. The rise of the future market will be more about the interaction between theme stocks related to strategic emerging industries and regional economies, and heavy-weight blue-chip stocks.
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