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by haki9a900 on 2012-03-06 17:42:12

Calculating the Full Costs of O'Donnell's Defeat by Michael Scherer | @michaelscherer | November 2, 2010 | + Tweet

In the end, it seemed like Christine O'Donnell fulfilled everyone's expectations, maybe except her own. As Democrats expected, she was a lot of fun to watch, occasionally offering a parody of what Democrats love to think about Tea Party candidates. ("Just laugh," she wrote in a tweet yesterday. "Mix it up.") As institutional Republicans expected, she lost, effectively giving away a seat that could have gone to the GOP had Mike Castle not lost in the primary. This could be a big loss for the Republican party, depending on how the rest of the night goes.

Here is the math, which is a little tricky: Republicans need to pick up 10 seats to take control of the U.S. Senate. Democrats are not expected to steal any seats, so that leaves a Senate hanging on 11 Democratic states, not counting Delaware and Connecticut, which were already considered lost. Republicans have already won two of those states, in Arkansas and Indiana. North Dakota is as good as gone for the Republicans. Four more states are clearly within Republican reach: Pennsylvania, Illinois, Colorado, Wisconsin. We will know these results soon.

Assuming all these states fall, then Republicans will need to win three of the remaining four seats to win the Senate: West Virginia, Washington, Nevada, and California. That’s a tall task, considering recent polls showed significant leads for Democrats in Connecticut and California. But it would be a far less daunting task if Republicans only needed two states. This is the O’Donnell effect.

As it stands now, Democrats will essentially know that the Senate is safe if the West Virginia race, which could come at any moment, goes their way. It will not be a lock, but many in the White House will allow themselves to relax for a few hours.

Update: Just as I hit publish, news organizations called West Virginia for the Democrats, effectively closing the door on a Republican takeover of the Senate tonight. (Whether Joe Lieberman or Ben Nelson decide to switch parties is another matter.) Again, for our little O'Donnell thought experiment, imagine that she had allowed the slot to be won in Delaware. In that case, the door would still be open. Instead of having to sweep California, Washington, and Nevada, Republicans would only have to win two of them. Potentially a huge difference.