Strong Twist Cotton, ICE Cotton Review on October 21st: Rebound from Low Point, Near-term Strength and Long-term Weakness

by wdkg3duan on 2012-03-01 23:03:26

43875 On October 21, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 267.01 points, closing at 11,808.79 points, an increase of 2.31%; the NASDAQ Composite Index rose by 38.84 points, closing at 2,637.46 points, up 1.49%; the S&P 500 Index increased by 22.86 points, closing at 1,238.25 points, a rise of 1.88%. On Friday (Oct. 21), cotton futures on the ICE Futures U.S. in New York rebounded from their lowest point in 14 months seen in the previous trading day, closing higher for nearby contracts and lower for distant ones. The main December contract opened slightly lower at 96.85 cents, reaching a high of 98.80 cents during the session and a low of 96.47 cents, eventually closing at 97.10 cents, a slight increase of 0.24 cents. The December contract fell by 4.7% this week, with a trading volume of 15,052 lots and open interest of 86,064 lots; the March contract closed at 95.60 cents, up 0.18 cents; the May contract closed at 95.19 cents, down 0.04 cents. Global Adjustment Price (AWP) 2010 Cotton Fine Count Adjustment Previous Settlement 10043 Loan Deficiency Payment (LDP) 95.64 Annual High on 9/14/2011 0.00 92.84 92.71 0.13 95.19 95.23 -0.04 Change December 2012 92.94 93.01 -0.07 Today's Settlement On October 21, the China Cotton Price Index CC Index 328 National Weighted Average Price was 19,623 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan. CC Index 527 closed at 17,009 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; CC Index 229 closed at 21,027 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan. 95.60 92.84 92.71 0.13 July 2012 94.14 July 2013 95.64 Annual Low on 10/20/2011 94.90 7 Market Land Cotton Average Basic Quotation 93.92 93.61 0.31 4085 95.60 95.42 0.18 Today's Settlement 95.34 91.34 91.21 0.13 Open Interest Volume High On October 21, the China Import Cotton Price Index (FC Index M) was 113.48 cents, down 2.68 cents. Annual Low on 10/20/2011 94.90 Land Cotton Average Basic Quotation 93.92 93.61 0.31 4085 95.60 95.42 0.18 Today's Settlement 95.34 91.34 91.21 0.13 July 2012 94.14 July 2013 On October 21, the spot cotton market slm 1-1/16" cotton (color grade 41, leaf grade 4, length 34) averaged 94.54 cents/pound, with an annual high of 110.14 cents on September 14, 2011; the annual low was 94.19 cents on October 20, 2011; 1 3/32" cotton (color grade 31, leaf grade 3, length 35) averaged 97.95 cents/pound. May -0.04 On October 21, the Zhengzhou Cotton Index rose by 80 points to close at 20,006, barely above 20,000, with total trading remaining sluggish at 132,000 lots, and total open interest reduced by 8,674 lots to 332,000 lots; the main 1205 contract rose by 80 points to close at 20,040, with trading of 121,000 lots and open interest reduced by 6,288 lots to 222,000 lots. 2011.10 Metal Business www.100ppi.com 97.10 ELS Competitive Payment (PCP) On October 21, the spot land cotton market traded 6,418 bales, with a cumulative trade of 90,566 bales for the year. Last year's same period saw 46,349 bales traded. Data showed that the total trading volume exceeded 12,800 lots on Friday, surpassing the 30-day average by about 5%. Intercontinental Exchange data revealed that as of October 20, the open interest stood at 156,328 lots compared to 152,825 lots the previous trading day; Thursday's total trading volume was 22,529 lots compared to 15,343 lots the previous trading day. Market analysts pointed out that the main contract plummeted nearly 3% on Thursday's close to 96.86 cents/pound, the lowest since September 2010. A rebound occurred above the lows today, with the market falling 4.7% this week. Concerns over weakening Chinese cotton demand leading to a slowdown in US cotton exports were highlighted due to China being the world's largest cotton importer. Independent cotton analyst Mike Stevens believed it would be difficult for cotton futures to break through the $1 barrier, with a new fluctuation range for the main contract expected between 93-98 cents. On October 21, PTA main contract 1201 opened at 8,020, with an intra-day high of 8,206 and a low of 8,010, closing at 8,130, up 56 yuan/ton from the previous day's average price, with a daily trading volume of 1,045,980 lots and open interest significantly reduced by 60,212 lots to 273,082 lots. On October 21, Cotlook Cotton Outlook Index plummeted, with the A Index down 275 points, closing at 106.90 cents/pound. Global Adjustment Price (AWP) for October 21 - October 27 is 90.01 cents/pound. On October 21, NY certified inventory totaled 20,801 bales, with 4,906 bales awaiting certification. On October 21, the December light sweet crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose by $1.33, closing at $87.40 per barrel, an increase of 1.6%. On October 21, gold futures for December delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose by $23.20, closing at $1,636.10 per ounce, up 1.4%, but fell 2.8% in the week's trading.