In the first quarter of next year, all kinds of economic and performance growth data will be very good. Investors will make full use of this golden window, and the re-release of credit growth in the first quarter will also provide an objective favorable environment; however, before the end of the second quarter, investors will expect that after the middle of next year, the economic growth rate may fluctuate and fall back, and the effect of economic stimulus policies in the United States and China will also weaken, which may trigger investors' profit-taking; as for the third quarter, historically obvious off-season characteristics plus lack of policy support may lead to a continuation of stock market平淡ness; by the fourth quarter, investors' attention will gradually shift to 2011, and the government will also introduce corresponding policies to support and avoid the situation of "high front and low back" in 2010, in order to maintain the basic understanding of China's sustainable development. This may support the rise of the market at the end of the year. The operation trajectory of the stock market next year may form an "N"-shaped trend of rising at both ends and depressed in the middle, which is somehow internally related to the previously analyzed stock market operation mechanism. People in the investment circle are most enthusiastic about making all kinds of predictions. This is not because they are the best at it, but because they dislike "uncertainty" the most, so they always try to seek some kind of "certainty" about the future through prediction. Since it is now near the end of the year, I will also make some predictions about the stock market next year according to custom. It needs to be noted here that I also predicted an "N"-shaped trend for the market trend at the end of last year. So far this year, the stock index trend has basically been consistent with this judgment. However, next year's "N"-shaped trend will be quite different from this year. The time ratio of the rising and falling phases in this year's "N"-shaped trend is 7:1, but the duration of the rising phase in next year's "N"-shaped trend is estimated to be shorter than this year. The Central Economic Work Conference at the end of this year will set the tone for next year's policy orientation. Although I do not think there will be an explicit "exit" policy at present, non-exit does not mean no adjustment. Policy adjustments may be sequentially introduced, from the current industrial policies restricting capacity, to possibly stopping some stimulus policies boosting asset bubbles (such as the preferential tax policy on second home transactions), then clearing up other stimulus policies issued by local governments, and even eventually using direct monetary policy tools. The cumulative impact of these policies may become evident in the second and third quarters of next year. Two, the operation trajectory of the stock market next year. As the year-end approaches, it is customary to predict the market for the coming year. The purpose of prediction is not to "point out the problems" (especially when so many people are mocking the accuracy of predictions), but just to leave some written records, at least one year later we would know where we might have gone wrong. My personal view is that although market predictions need frequent corrections, it is like sand table exercises. Only by being clear in mind and having an analytical framework to rely on can we remain calm in chaos. Prediction itself is also a process of constant self-denial, gradually approaching reality. Currently, China's leading economic indicators (such as PMI) have remained stable above 50 for eight consecutive months. I believe that the leading index will peak at some point in the first half of next year, and China's industrial added value, GDP year-on-year growth rate, etc., will reach a stage high in the first and second quarters of next year. From now until then, there may be 3-5 months of time, during which the market still has a lower limit support for further rises. After the leading index peaks, the "divergence" of the stock index trend direction will significantly expand. What exactly needs to be predicted? As a one-year outlook, I think three questions cannot be avoided. First, the operation mechanism of the stock market next year; second, the operation trajectory of the stock market next year; third, the investment method of the stock market next year. For example, optional consumption is indeed an "early cycle" industry, but the optional consumption industry includes a series of sub-industries (sectors) such as automobiles, media, high-end electronic consumer goods, and consumer services, with huge differences among them. Among them, the automobile sector was the first to react due to the influence of early-stage stimulus policies during the economic recovery period. The media sector, on the other hand, reacts relatively slowly to economic recovery within the optional consumption industry, only showing improvement after the economy has recovered to a certain level of heat. Considering that the automobile sector has risen by 245% since the beginning of the year, while the media has only risen by 93%, I believe that the lagging industries ("late-cycle" industries such as media and electronic consumer goods) in the "early cycle" industries will still have investment value next year. The petroleum industry shows an opposite example. The petroleum industry includes a series of sub-industries such as refining, mining, and oil and gas services. Although the petroleum industry is a "late cycle" industry, the relatively low oil prices in the early stages of economic recovery have already caused reactions in the downstream refining sub-industry. The refining sector has risen by 91% since the beginning of the year, but the petroleum mining and oil and gas service sectors have only risen by 40%. With the further warming of the economy and the continued rise in oil prices next year, investment hotspots will gradually shift upstream along the petroleum industry chain (such as petroleum mining and oil services). Three, the stock selection method for the stock market next year. Mechanically speaking, the core three factors affecting the stock market in 2010 are: 1. The speed and sustainability of economic recovery, the latter may be more important; 2. The timing and method of the withdrawal of next year's stimulus policies; 3. Next year's inflation situation, referring more to commodity prices here. My preliminary judgment is: There are signs of accelerating economic recovery, reaching a high point in growth at some point in the first half of next year. Before this, the stock market still has room to rise further with the recovery process; but next year, national stimulus policies will transition from ensuring growth to adjusting structures. Although this is a gradual process with possible reversals, generally speaking, the period of the loosest policies will gradually pass; and international commodity prices are less clear than the former two, possibly becoming a disruptive factor affecting next year. If the trend of this year's market confirmed the effectiveness of the "investment clock," then as China's economy enters the mid-to-late stages of recovery next year, can we simply focus our investment priorities on "late cycle" industries? The answer is obviously not that simple, because the potential market gains next year will be significantly smaller than this year, which determines that the difference in gains between different industries will be difficult to widen significantly. Therefore, we must dig deeper into the "investment clock" to gain greater returns in limited space. Looking forward to 2010 (December issue): If the previous content was merely a judgment of stock market trends, equally important is the selection of stock types, and effective stock selection methods must rely on the objective environment of the stock market. This year, the gaps in gains between different industries in the stock market were enormous, with the optional consumption industry rising 142%, while the petroleum mining industry rose only 41%. Due to this, stock selection methods based on the "Merrill Lynch Investment Clock" became popular. The essence of this method is to choose strong industries at different stages based on the position of the stock market in the economic cycle. For example, the optional consumer goods industry is more sensitive to economic recovery, thus performing strongly in the early stages of economic recovery, known as the "early cycle" industry. The petroleum industry has the strongest demand expectations in the overheating stage of the economy and performs best in the mid-to-late stages of economic recovery, known as the "late cycle" industry. This year, China's economy and stock market are precisely in the early stages of recovery in this round of cycles, so the "early cycle" industries have far outperformed the "late cycle" industries since the beginning of the year. One, the operation mechanism of the stock market next year. Website www.lovojf.com/fuanna www.binglong.net Related thematic articles: Fuanna Home Textiles Opened Lower the Next Day Fuanna Home Textiles Higher Than Market Expectations of 53.0 Fuanna Home Textiles Official Website Leopard Believes