HSBC Holdings, the largest bank in Europe, predicts that by 2016 —— According to reports from U.S. media this morning, HSBC Holdings predicts that with the expansion of business ties among Asian nations and the rising demand from emerging markets driving freight, China will surpass the United States to become the world's largest trading nation by 2016.
The global trade report released by HSBC states that over the next five years, trade in China and the Asia-Pacific region will grow at nearly twice the average global rate, mainly driven by regional trade growth and increasingly close trade links with Latin America, the Middle East, and North Africa.
The report forecasts that China's trade value will grow at an annual rate of 6.6% over the next five years, while the growth rates for Asia and the globe will be 6.5% and 3.8%, respectively. China’s share of global imports and exports is expected to increase from last year's 9.8% to 12.3%.
As early as 2009, China surpassed Germany to become the world's largest exporter.
The head of global trade for HSBC Holdings in the Asia-Pacific region said that the world's largest companies will continue to expand their supply chains in the Asia-Pacific region, which will promote intra-regional trade.
With China expanding its global reach, particularly into South America and Africa, its enormous energy needs and higher manufacturing output will drive robust import-export trade between these regions.
Moreover, the ongoing European debt crisis threatens the global economic outlook, so demand from traditional Western consumer markets is expected to slow down.
HSBC stated that as the world's second-largest economy, China will stimulate economic growth through fiscal stimulus measures and accelerated infrastructure construction, thereby increasing imports of bulk commodities from Latin America and the Middle East. (Reported by Wang JinYu)