The stock index fluctuated at the head of the market and broke through the bottom. Lending needs to be observed-----Night of November 23rd

by cuiyi3040 on 2012-02-21 15:21:32

The index fluctuated and broke through the downward support, requiring observation ----- Analysis and prediction review on the night of November 23, Friday: (It is expected that the Shanghai Composite Index will have reduced oscillation and zero adjustment on Monday. The upward signal for index consolidation is at 3280 points, the weaker support upwards is at 3241 points, and the weaker resistance upwards is at 3352 points. The stock discovered by the specialist, Weiwei Co., Ltd., and Yan Shen Co., Ltd., fell to the limit. It was reminded that the exact high point of 3333 became the benchmark for institutional operations.

The Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3308 points, quickly surged to 3320 points, stabilized again at 3310 points after two waves of upward defense failed at 3333 points and retreated. Near noon, the index probed to 3309 points. Concerned about the lunch break, in the afternoon, as the index rebounded to 3324 points, the share prices of key stocks like China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and Agricultural Bank of China dropped without any sign of intentional suppression. The index probed down to 3305 points at least. The market did not show panic as the index consolidated between 3316 points and 33010 points. Institutions entered the market and pushed the index upward at this time, with a noticeable increase in trading volume. At 2:57 PM, the index encountered the sensitive point of 3333 points again. Institutions vigorously pushed up the trading volume significantly expanded. Ultimately, the index closed at 3338 points, closing at the highest point of the day, rising by 30.32 points, an increase of 0.92%, with a turnover of 205.4 billion yuan. The K-line showed a large bullish candlestick breaking upwards, and the index once again set a new high for this round. However, it lacked the momentum and energy for an upward attack, only achieving a new high through fluctuations. The head market's upward attack seemed unfounded, as the daily technical indicators DMI’s +DI continued to decline, conflicting with the 60-minute KDJ golden cross upward trend. Whether the index can continue its upward attack tonight still requires observation and confirmation after tomorrow's close, but the medium- and long-term upward trend of the index remains unwavering.

It is expected that the Shanghai Composite Index tonight will experience inertial upward attacks followed by oscillations or possibly automatic adjustments followed by upward oscillations. The characteristics are oscillations and downward movements, with unpredictable trends. The upward signal point is at 3352 points, the resistance at 3374 points, the stronger resistance around 3400 points (a rapid small fall to this level often indicates excessive profit-taking), the oscillation support at 3310 points, and the weaker support at 3280 points (establishing this position is excessively profitable).

Among the two markets, 1382 stocks rose, 77 remained flat, and 294 fell. The bulls controlled the market initiative, and the head market pushed higher and strengthened. 26 stocks hit the upper limit. The food manufacturing sector surged by 4.11%, with Jinjing Liquor, Weiwei Co., Ltd., and Lianhua Flavoring hitting the upper limit. Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors were up by 3.36%, with Dahuhu Shares, Oriental Ocean, Asia Excellence Group, and Xinjiang Tianye leading the gains. Transportation equipment was up by 2.72%, with Dongfeng Technology and Dongfeng Automobile hitting the upper limit, while Jianghuai Automobile, Jinbei Automobile, and Dimas Shares strengthened. Non-ferrous metals were up by 2.62%, commerce and trade by 2.52%, food and beverage by 2.42%, petrochemical refining and coking by 2.52%, rubber products by 2.39%, non-ferrous metals by 2.38%, chemical products by 2.22%, and instruments by 2.11%. The timely concern for the trade and chemical sectors saw strengthening trends in Luzhou Chemicals, Chongqing Tianhua, Xufeng Chemicals, Haitai Development, Hulian Shares, Xiabai Shares, Hangzhou Department Store, and Wuhan Mineral Resources.

The significant reversal of heavyweight sectors such as PetroChina and Sinopec was the main reason for today's oscillations. Real estate, financial safety, energy coal, and steel sectors were in strong consolidation. Financial stocks such as China Life Insurance, Shanxi Guotou, Bank of China, CITIC Securities, and China Trust strengthened. Pay attention to the trend of Haitong Securities' dual listing, which may present a significant opportunity for further gains. The real estate sector has a demand for rotational gains after a long period of consolidation, with Wanke, Fenghua Shares, Zhejiang Guangsha, Wanye Enterprises, and Huaye Property strengthening. Stocks like Sunshine Shares, Yue Hongyuan, Tiandijinliu, Yinkai Progress, Gentleman Business, and Laiyin Business showed strong upward requirements. Steel stocks represented by Baosteel had signs of exerting strength and gaining, including Tangsteel, Shaogang, Hanggang, Northern Steel, Primetal Sheets, and Yansteel. These deserve attention during today's intraday session, potentially presenting opportunities for short-term gains.

Today's index rise and fall were both due to Sinopec and PetroChina. Currently, these two benchmark stocks have shaken off heavy positions in the short term and are looking upward, which should be positive for the index movement. Rural Commercial Bank adjusted for three days and received support from the 10-day moving average, also showing a rebound request, and the index may therefore surge upward tomorrow. Tomorrow, there will be more falling stocks with deeper declines, with Wanben Da falling by -2.37% and others like Tiankang Biology, Zhonghui Medicine, Times Old Materials, Chengxing Shares, Tianke Shares, Xin Du Hotel, and Shanghai Meilin. Due to the larger adjustment, they all belong to normal consolidations, a clear characteristic of a strong market. Therefore, for stocks that surged and then fell today, the washout is greater than the bottoming out; do not scare yourself into panic.

Stocks discovered on Friday, Weiwei Co., Ltd., and Yan Shen Co., Ltd., hit the upper limit, Old Cast Iron Pipes increased by 4.5%, Hunan Jinhuan by 3.86%, and Public Connection by 3.74%. Stocks discovered today include CITIC Securities, Shenzhen Airport, China Construction, Yansteel, Tangsteel, Sunshine Shares, Yue Hongyuan, Gentleman Business, China Life Insurance, Wuhan Mineral Resources, Chongqing Tianhua, Yaguoer, Jinlong Shares. Discovered stocks are not necessarily good; readers can confirm through intraday observation, using today's intraday stock price trends as the standard for learning, research, and application, not as operational basis. Readers are also encouraged to select some standby operation stocks when the stock market is booming, for shared exchange. In the stock market, there are no experts, only winners and losers. Wishing readers to become winners.

Trading Strategy:

1. When the index approaches 3300 points, reduce positions moderately, flexibly increase short positions, and generally adopt a strategy of chasing hot stocks in the short term. Normally, maintain a position of 70% with a fluctuation of 30%, and use flexible position increases and decreases to cope with the short-term fluctuations in the index. Avoid full positions and use capital management to guard against stock market risks.

2. Prevent the risk of sudden sharp rises and falls of individual stocks during the holding process, acting like an investment elevator. Daily, prepare stop-loss and take-profit points for your held stocks, prioritizing downside losses over upside profits. Combine high selling with position-based stop-losses, reacting quickly to make decisions and operate swiftly. Choosing the right stop-loss point is crucial and requires prompt action.