The stock index fluctuated and then rose, breaking through the resistance level upwards. Here's an analysis and prediction for Friday, November 23rd:
Expected that the Shanghai Composite Index would consolidate with reduced volatility on Monday. The upward consolidation signal was at 3280 points, while the downward consolidation signal was at 3333 points. Weaker support was seen at 3241 points and stronger resistance at 3352 points. Stocks such as VV Shares and Authority Spirit Shares reached their upper limits.
The closing of the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3308 points, quickly rising to 3320 points, stabilizing at 3310 points before rising again. It encountered resistance at 3333 points twice before retreating near noon. At lunchtime, concerns about the market caused a slight retreat but rebounded to 3324 points in the afternoon. A decline in prices of key stocks like PetroChina, Sinopec, and Rural Commercial Bank suggested intentional suppression. The index probed down to 3305 points, showing no panic. With institutional buying, the volume expanded, pushing the index up again, reaching the sensitive point of 3333 points at 2:57 PM. Subsequently, the index closed at 3338 points, hitting the day's high, rising 30.32 points (0.92%). The trading volume reached 205.4 billion yuan, forming a bullish candlestick pattern indicating an upward breakout. However, it lacked the momentum for further upward attacks, merely achieving new highs during consolidation.
Predictions for the next day include possible inertial upward movements or consolidations followed by upward trends. Key levels are resistance at 3352 points, strong resistance at 3374 points, weaker resistance around 3400 points, and support at 3310 points with stronger support at 3280 points.
Among all listed companies, 1382 stocks rose, 77 remained unchanged, and 294 fell. The bulls controlled the market. 26 stocks hit their upper limits, with the food manufacturing sector increasing by 4.11%, including Maotai Liquor, VV Shares, and Lotus Flavoring hitting their limits. Other sectors performing well included agriculture (+3.36%), transportation equipment (+2.72%), and non-ferrous metals (+2.62%).
The rise and fall of the index were mainly influenced by China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) and PetroChina. These two stocks helped consolidate and reduce short-term fluctuations, which should positively impact the overall index trend. Agricultural Commercial Bank, after adjusting for three days, found support at the 10-day moving average and showed signs of upward movement.
In conclusion, despite some stocks declining significantly, most adjustments were normal. For stocks that experienced sharp rises followed by falls, the likelihood of a washout is higher than a bottom reversal. Investors should not panic unnecessarily.
Stocks discovered on Friday, such as VV Shares and Authority Spirit Shares, hit their upper limits. Newly identified stocks include CITIC Securities, Shenzhen Airport, China Construction, among others.
Trading strategies:
1. When the index approaches 3300 points, consider adding positions flexibly without over-leveraging. Maintain around 70% position with flexibility to adjust based on market conditions.
2. Be cautious of sudden spikes in individual holdings that could lead to elevator-like price actions. Set elastic stop-loss and take-profit targets, prioritizing downside protection while allowing for upside gains. Combine stop-loss orders with mental stops and act swiftly based on intraday price movements.
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Note: The above information is for educational and research purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.