Regarding the future direction of monetary policy, authoritative figures stated that currently, the monetary policy has entered an observation period. The judgments formed at the beginning of the year about inflation trends, domestic and international economic situations, and changes in the real estate market need to be appropriately adjusted. This requires the monetary authorities to control the direction, intensity, and rhythm of regulation well, enhancing the relevance, flexibility, and foresight of regulation. "Especially in a relatively tightened environment, there should be a 'targeted easing' policy implemented for small and medium-sized enterprises, affordable housing, and other sectors."
Rong Zhenwei, Chief Economist of Industrial Bank, said that according to past patterns, after May, credit growth usually maintains a stable trend. Bank loan disbursement enters a more rational phase. Lian Ping, Chief Economist of Bank of Communications, believed that overall credit supply will still be tight in the second half of the year. With some slowing down in credit demand expected, it is anticipated that credit growth will continue to show a steady decline.
An insider from within a bank mentioned that entering July, under conditions where deposit reserves have increased, considering factors such as slightly higher loan disbursements at the start of the quarter, banks have a strong incentive to disburse loans. There was a rush to disburse new loans in the first week. Market reports suggested that regulatory bodies had provided window guidance to several banks.
According to information gathered by China Securities News reporters from multiple branches of various banks, all banks felt that overall new loan amounts would be tight in July, with widespread increases in loan interest rates. A person from a Beijing branch of a joint-stock bank stated that by July 1st, the branch's July quota had already been fully disbursed. The entire branch could not increase its loan scale and could only make new disbursements upon the maturity of existing loans within the original quota.
Based on the central bank's initial plan setting this year's new loan scale between 7 trillion to 7.5 trillion yuan, considering the quarterly loan disbursement rhythm of 3:3:2:2 and the monthly rhythm of 4:4:2, the new loans in July should be controlled between 560 billion to 60 billion yuan. Analysts believe that since the banking industry’s credit scale in the second half of the year accounts for only 40% of the annual target, even though banks’ loan pricing power has strengthened, the phenomenon of 'price up, volume down' will still affect bank performance. It is expected that the growth rate of bank earnings will slow down in the second half of the year.