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This morning, the market fluctuated slightly. There was news in the morning that Rongping Ogawa, the director of Standard & Poor's Asia sovereign ratings, said that the market had already digested the potential risk of a possible downgrade of U.S. ratings. In addition, he believed that Japan's fiscal situation was still worrying, and Japan's credit deterioration was continuing. However, although sovereign risks were still rising, they had not yet reached the level of another rating adjustment.
There was news before that Moody's had planned to lower Japan's rating and had sent a special envoy to Japan for communication. As a result, the yen returned to the appreciation track again. However, due to concerns about possible intervention by the Bank of Japan, the foreign exchange market did not fluctuate much.
From the perspective of the US dollar index, although the US dollar index fluctuated significantly, it still managed to maintain a upward trend. However, the multi-day rebound of the US dollar index failed to effectively break through the suppression of the 30-day moving average line. Now, the daily line indicators of the US dollar index have reached near the mid-axis. From a technical point of view, a breakout is needed, otherwise it may turn into a downward trend. The inducement could very likely be the U.S. non-farm data on Friday, so the current situation is a bit awkward. From a technical point of view, the US dollar index can be bought low, but the fundamentals show divergence, so short-term operations are recommended. It is suggested to buy the US dollar index low, but it is best to liquidate before the non-farm data.
Australian Dollar/US Dollar:
The Reserve Bank of Australia announced on Tuesday to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged, and the Australian dollar continued to fall back from around 1.10. Investors who chased short yesterday would have satisfactory gains. Even investors who entered at 1.08 would be relatively satisfied. Currently, the Australian dollar has broken down on the hourly line. Today's important support is around 1.0710. If it stops falling again, you can try to go long with a light position. But if it breaks through the support, you can continue to chase short.
From a technical point of view, after a sharp fall, the Australian dollar has entered the rebound cycle. The resistance above is located around 1.08 and 1.0850. If it encounters resistance when rebounding to this level, you can look for opportunities to enter and go short.
Gold:
Gold is no different from the previous fundamental forecast, and the target position of 1650 has also been reached. It has now strongly stood on the position of 1660 US dollars. Various indicators show that gold is overbought and may face a technical correction. If the horizontal disk replaces the fall, continue to hold. If there is a pullback, consider exiting accordingly. The support below is around $1635. If it stops falling here, you can continue to consider going long.
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