"This crash is too strange, people thought there would be at least a rebound opportunity, but there isn't," remarked the manager of the aforementioned private equity fund.
Industry insiders believe that the recent adjustments by regulatory departments on insurance capital investment channels will bring more investment flexibility to insurance companies, providing more avenues and possibilities for the application of insurance funds. They expect that regulatory bodies will further relax some refined investment restrictions, such as gradually lifting the restriction on "prohibiting the purchase of ST stocks, or stocks with sharply declining or severely loss-making performances," giving more decision-making power to insurance companies.
------------------------------------------ More insurance funds will be invested in the A-share market.
The reporter learned last night that the CIRC recently held a closed-door meeting with senior executives from insurance companies and insurance asset management companies. An important signal was revealed during the meeting: Insurance capital usage policies will undergo significant adjustments. The scope and proportion limits for investments in multiple channels, including A-shares, H-shares, and guaranteed bonds, will be expanded.
Although the 20% upper limit for A-share critical investment remains unchanged, stock funds will be excluded, effectively increasing the upper limit for critical insurance investments. However, industry insiders analyzed that since stock funds account for a relatively large proportion in the allocation of insurance funds, this policy adjustment could bring at least an additional hundred billion yuan worth of new funds to the A-share market.
When the reporter of this financial weekly exchanged views with a high-level official from a certain fund company, the question was asked: "How many key points do you see?"
Mainstream investors have not strongly gone short; they have been organizing defenses after continuous crashes. However, the shorts have appeared very weak, calm, and methodical.
So, what force has such quality? The above-mentioned public mutual fund manager believed that there might be a withdrawal of overseas capital. Data showed that on April 19th, the largest short-selling fund was the JPMorgan China Advantage Fund, with a reduction in holdings reaching 16.5%. Other individuals believed that it might involve some covert funds with extensive information channels.
Another well-known Sunshine Mutual Fund leader decisively reduced his positions near the 2600-point level. His own position was quite high, and he had always been relatively bullish, "precisely betting" on the situation.
This shows that mainstream investors have not strongly gone short; they have been organizing defenses after continuous crashes, even "buying tops." But the shorts have been very weak, calm, and methodical.
"2300 points."
Some unresolved puzzles seem to lack explanation.
Industry insiders are particularly concerned that this crash appears to have no winner. Because traditionally defined "national team" insurance funds were also "trapped."
"To say that insurance funds went short at 3100 points and then gently bought back at 2700 points, the possibility of this is extremely small. In other words, insurance funds themselves also appear relatively passive; they are certainly not the leading force behind shorting the market," said a research person from a Shanghai-based fund company.
Market participants believe that "at this point, the impact of policy adjustments on insurance companies is more psychological. For example, insurance companies can more confidently overallocate when buying tops."
Many market participants helplessly point their fingers at stock index futures, but through exchanges with early players in the CSI 300 Index Futures, the possibility of this has largely been ruled out. Refer to "Eight Reasons Supporting That Stock Index Futures Are Not the Main Culprits Behind the Stock Market Decline."
So, who is the real culprit behind the initial shorting?
It is known that China Life Insurance deployed over 100 billion yuan around the 2700-point mark, while Ping An Insurance acted slightly later. However, the market did not show any signs of recovery.
This crash is inexplicable. In conversations within the capital circle in Shanghai conducted by this financial weekly, almost everyone was "stunned" by such trends. The first question after social gatherings became: how low do you see the market going?
Insurance funds were also trapped. The sharp 600-point crash left many initially optimistic about the bottom.
Four Major Mysteries
One famous public mutual fund manager, when exchanging views with this financial weekly, could only temporarily use the Golden Ratio to calculate where the top should fall: "The first support line is at 2380."
Similarly, the third mystery arises: why did no institutional party provide effective warnings for this crash?
A well-known technical analyst, speaking with this financial weekly, gave the following message to eagerly awaiting friends in the circle just before the close on the afternoon of May 20th: "The direction afterward is unclear; everyone must make their own judgment."
Between these two insurance giants, people usually regard Ping An Insurance (601318.SH) as the authoritative benchmark. However, according to this financial weekly's understanding, more funds now look favorably upon China Life Insurance (601628.SH), as it seems more sensitive to grassroots information.
The first mystery is: why was this crash so rule-bound and devoid of any rebound space?
More peculiarly, this non-rebounding crash was not a continuous crash. Instead, it followed a very neat pattern of "large bullish candle + continuous large bearish candles + large bullish candle." Many realized that this crash pattern was entirely different from the continuous crash of "7ยท29" and also unlike the standard bear market decline of late 2008.