Looking forward to the market, the balance between bulls and bears is temporarily maintained. The quality washing process in a positive rebound is also quite necessary. The support of the 5-day line indicates that the bulls have not completely abandoned control of the market. If in the near future it can reverse and fill the short-term gap in the 2580-2600 range and obtain real support for a weak rebound, then the subsequent upward space and time can be expected. However, this can only be defined as an overbought rebound. The banking sector continues to build its top structure, while small caps are constructing their early-stage tops. As long as they do not continue to rise, the stock index will find it difficult to further probe for new highs. The current policy focus on stability is quite evident. The introduction of measures related to various regional sectors and emerging industries offers the market not just speculative opportunities but more importantly reflects the determination to adjust the economic structure. In terms of operations, investors should continue to maintain good positions, conduct wave operations on weaker categories within the board, and for deeply trapped varieties, if the fundamentals remain poor and there are no such themes as restructuring forecasts, gradually reduce positions opportunistically. Pay attention to banks, industry, pharmaceuticals, electronics, information technology, and other thematic investment opportunities.
The upcoming collection of property taxes and the introduction of stricter land management policies has once again strengthened the real estate sector's rebound momentum. Although there is still some performance from speculative stocks, it is difficult to reignite significant enthusiasm. Thematic investment opportunities lie in policy-supported sectors that take turns to emerge. Each region is assigned different development missions, generally aimed at adapting to the country's economic restructuring direction. Specifically, apart from Xinjiang being assigned a higher policy level in addition to economic fields, all regions are piloting new emerging industrial clusters. Of course, amidst debates about whether real estate regulation will result in a "hard landing" or "soft landing," there must be new economic stimulus models to ignite a new round of investment fever. Regional planning combined with emerging industries gradually replacing traditional economies is the development direction for the next five years or even longer. However, people need to carefully distinguish among industries heavily supported by policies. For example, smart grids have been ongoing for quite some time, but many related products are still in the experimental stage and cannot yet form an industrial cluster, let alone bring about economic benefits. Industry estimates suggest large-scale applications may still require at least ten years. Therefore, when selecting individual stocks, investors must pay attention to whether the industries they belong to can provide genuine profit growth points for listed companies in the near future (1-2 years).
Small caps today showed narrow-range fluctuations with a quality-driven decline. The recovery of U.S. stocks the following day caused both markets to open lower. Under favorable news stimuli, the Shanghai and Jiangsu-Zhejiang sectors performed slightly better but did not form clear sector effects. Medical devices, media, nonferrous metals, and pharmaceuticals sectors also had partial performances, but the heavyweight small-cap stocks led by PetroChina, Sinopec, finance, and real estate repeatedly suppressed the market, once driving the index below the 10-day line. Supported by the 5-day line, the index made a slight rebound after opening, but due to the lack of follow-up volume and the futures market maintaining a strong pattern, it ultimately closed lower.