What was Ferguson thinking? According to Sina Sports, amidst the cheers of 74,242 fans, Manchester United lost a game that, by all accounts, they should not have. With a score of 0-1, this was certainly not the result Sir Alex would have accepted, despite his post-match emphasis on the positive aspects. Before the match, CSKA Moscow had reversed their fortunes against Wolfsburg at home, meaning United only needed a draw against bottom-of-the-table Beşiktaş in their next game to secure top spot in the group with a round to spare. However, after 90 minutes, the result likely disappointed the manager, as his team suffered their first Champions League home defeat in 4 years and 9 months.
In what appeared to be an inconsequential yet crucial Champions League group stage match, the lineup Sir Alex fielded left every United follower astounded. Foster, Gary Neville, Rafael, Brown, Vidic, Obertan, Gibson, Anderson, Park Ji-sung, Macheda, and Welbeck - this was United's starting eleven. You read that right; it was a genuine League Cup lineup, one that wouldn't even suffice for an FA Cup game.
Aside from Vidic in defense, the manager intent on exercising his squad sent out 10 substitutes. Where were the other starters? Besides Ferdinand and O'Shea who were nursing injuries, Van der Sar who had a minor knee collision in the Everton game, along with Evra, Fletcher, and Carrick sitting on the bench, Rooney, Berbatov, Giggs, and Valencia were given a break by Sir Alex. In the second half, under losing conditions, Sir Alex only substituted in Evra and Carrick. In other words, among the 14 players Sir Alex used in this Champions League group stage match, only three were United's regulars. Perhaps deceived by the opponent's previous record of 1 draw and 3 losses in 4 games, or overly confident in his young squad, such disdain for the opposition was bound to lead to defeat. After all, the opponent had just achieved a 6-game winning streak domestically and recently thrashed league leaders Fenerbahçe 3-0.
Sir Alex's intention was clear to all: with qualification secured, he aimed to exercise the squad while allowing the starters ample rest for the upcoming weekend league match. Objectively speaking, the squad was indeed exercised, and the starters got their rest, but Sir Alex failed to achieve the goal he set for this match. What’s peculiar is that United's weekend opponent wasn't a formidable foe but Portsmouth, who had already lost 10 of their 13 league matches this season. Following Paul Hart's departure earlier in the week, Pompey now lacks even a head coach.
In contrast, Chelsea, also having qualified two rounds early, saw Ancelotti bring all his available starters to Porto, aiming directly for top spot in the group. Despite needing only a draw to virtually secure top spot (with their last match being at home against bottom-placed Apoel, which wouldn’t be too challenging), Anelka's goal completed a double over Porto both home and away. Ancelotti nearly fielded all his starters and got the desired result – securing top spot in the group a round early. To be fair, Chelsea faced a much tougher schedule than United, as they had to return to London this Sunday for an away game against title rivals Arsenal. Two consecutive away games, with one less day of rest compared to Arsenal, were actual issues Chelsea faced. Nevertheless, Ancelotti still played almost his entire first-choice squad, whereas against a weaker team like Portsmouth on the weekend, Sir Alex gave several key players ample rest, making it somewhat baffling.
As things stand, if in the final round United lose away to Wolfsburg and CSKA fail to win away to Beşiktaş, United could very well end up finishing second in the group. If so, both United and Wolfsburg would have 10 points each. If United lose 0-1, Wolfsburg would take top spot (United beat Wolfsburg 2-1 at home but lost 0-1 away, fewer away goals). If United lose 1-2, both teams would have beaten their opponents 2-1 at home, comparing goal differences, United with 1, Wolfsburg with 4, Wolfsburg would take top spot. As long as United scores at least 2 goals away and loses by only 1 goal (like 2-3, 3-4, 4-5), United would secure top spot due to more away goals. If United loses by 2 or more goals, Wolfsburg will definitely finish top.
Of course, there's another possibility where United finishes first even if they lose. Because if CSKA beats Beşiktaş away and United loses to Wolfsburg, all three teams would end up with 10 points. Comparing results in the mini-league, United has 7 points with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss; Wolfsburg has 6 points with 2 wins and 2 losses; CSKA has 4 points with 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses. In that case, United would definitely finish top. This might be the way Sir Alex prefers to secure top spot, as even a loss wouldn't matter, allowing him to further exercise the squad. But is taking such a risk worth it? Would Sir Alex dare?
Of course, finishing second isn't the end of the world. Last season, Chelsea and Arsenal both finished second in their groups and met strong opponents Juventus and Roma in the knockout stage, but they both advanced smoothly after two legs. However, finishing second means United has a significant chance of drawing Real Madrid or Barcelona, who are likely to finish top in their respective groups. Among the eight Champions League groups, Bordeaux, Arsenal, and Chelsea have already secured top spot. The remaining four groups, excluding United's, see Real Madrid, Barcelona, Sevilla, and Fiorentina as potential group winners. According to the principle that teams from the same country don't meet in the knockout stages, United won't face Arsenal or Chelsea, but they could encounter Real Madrid or Barcelona.
This season, UEFA intentionally or unintentionally grouped the four major clubs involved in high-profile transfers together – Milan, Real Madrid, Inter Milan, and Barcelona – with Kaka returning to Milan, Ibrahimovic back at Meazza, and Eto'o at Camp Nou, creating a spectacle vital for maintaining viewership. Accordingly, United's left-back Evra had already predicted that United could likely face Real Madrid in this season's Champions League, given the summer's most sensational news: Ronaldo joining Real Madrid for £80 million. "I know we'll face Real Madrid, but I can't explain why, it's just a feeling. Perhaps everyone will understand next round."
Unexpectedly, Evra's prediction seems increasingly plausible. If United finishes second, they could very well draw Real Madrid in the Champions League knockout stage. After this summer's reinforcements, Real Madrid is significantly stronger than last season, making it harder for United to face them compared to last season's Inter Milan. Moreover, with this season's Champions League final venue being Bernabeu and Ronaldo being a crowd favorite, UEFA naturally hopes Real Madrid progresses further. Lastly, the fixture schedule doesn't favor United. Can they overcome Real Madrid? It's highly questionable. And if they face Barcelona, one could only say the draw is poor. This current United side struggles against an upgraded Barcelona with Ibrahimovic, as evidenced by their three defeats in 13 Premier League games this season.
Away against Beşiktaş and home versus Wolfsburg, veterans Scholes and Giggs scored consecutively; in the two-legged tie against CSKA Moscow, Valencia scored the winner away and saved the day in injury time at home, leading United to secure their place in the knockout stage. United relied on veterans plus new signings to enter the elimination phase, but will they have the same luck in the Round of 16? Especially with an unfavorable home-first, away-second schedule, no one feels confident.
If Sir Alex hadn't been so complacent, the advantageous away-first, home-second schedule and relatively weaker opponents could have easily seen United into the quarterfinals procedurally. On December 8th, they play away at Wolfsburg and then host Aston Villa in the Premier League on December 12th. To avoid finishing second, United must secure points against Wolfsburg, necessitating the deployment of full or partial first-teamers, as the opponent's strength cannot be underestimated. Returning from Germany, a fierce Villa awaits United, seeking revenge for last season's heartbreak at the hands of Macheda. Aston Villa has already defeated Liverpool and Chelsea this season. Is Sir Alex implying they aren't as strong as Portsmouth? Without doubt, this time, the old man really went too far.