Will pork prices soar again?
To find out the reasons for the recent rapid increase in pork prices and whether pork prices will repeat the madness of 2007 this winter, reporters were divided into two groups to investigate pig breeding centers in Jiaonan, Jimo, Linyi and other places.
Recently, Ms. Gao, who lives on Xinglong Road, found when she went to the farmers' market to buy pork that the neck back meat which was sold at 10.9 yuan per catty a week ago had now risen to 12.5 yuan per catty. "Will pork prices rise again to 14 yuan per catty as they did in 2007?" With vegetable and other agricultural product prices soaring recently, making citizens' "vegetable baskets" heavier, whether pork prices, which have been lagging behind in their rise, will "catch up", has become a worry for many citizens, including Ms. Gao.
In a Jinluo chilled fresh pork specialty store in a supermarket on Hubei Road, reporters saw that the price tags here had just been changed. According to Mr. Zhang, the owner of the store, from the end of last month to the beginning of this month, prices had been raised twice in just a few short days. The original price of 11.5 yuan per catty for fatty pork is now 12.5 yuan per catty, rib chops have risen from 17 yuan per catty to 18.2 yuan per catty, neck back meat from 10.9 yuan per catty to 12.5 yuan per catty, pork spine bones from 8.7 yuan per catty to 10 yuan per catty, pig's trotters from 11.8 yuan per catty to 12.7 yuan per catty, and loin meat from 14.4 yuan per catty to 15 yuan per catty. "In summary, pork prices are now about 1-2 yuan higher per catty, and sales have dropped by thirty to forty percent," Mr. Zhang said.
Wholesale Market: Stable prices in the second half of the year. Yesterday, reporters learned from Huazhong Vegetable Wholesale Market that pork prices have been continuously rising since the second half of this year. "In June, the average wholesale price for boneless pork was only 14.5 yuan per kilogram, but by July it had already risen to 17 yuan per kilogram, and remained around this level for several months, reaching 17.4 yuan per kilogram by the end of October." A relevant person in charge of the Huazhong Vegetable Wholesale Market said that during the same period last year, the wholesale price for boneless pork was 15 yuan per kilogram, with an increase of around 13% this year compared to last year. Recently, there has been another "rise" of 0.2 yuan per kilogram, but this is the first increase after four months of stability.
Local investigation of the retail market: The higher the price, the harder it is to sell. "Prices have been high all year, last week pork was still 10.5 yuan per catty, now it's already 11.5 yuan per catty, and with this rise, less is being sold every day." Mr. Wang, who sells pork at Dalian Road Farmers' Market, told reporters that he has been selling pork in Qingdao for more than 20 years, and this year's business has been particularly tough. With pork prices not low and sales volume also reduced, the money earned each day, after deducting stall fees and costs, is very little.
[Jimo] Prices were too low at the start of spring. Qiji Town in Jimo is a gathering place for pig farming in Jimo. Yesterday morning, reporters came to Zhangli Village, located 2 kilometers away from the town.
Sun Shuhua has been raising pigs for 11 years, and currently has 200 pigs at home. "Now the gross profit for one pig can reach over 200 yuan." Sun Shuhua recently sold nearly 30 pigs, each weighing over 200 jin, at a price of 6.4 yuan per jin at the time, with a gross profit of nearly 150 yuan per pig. Now, the good varieties have risen to 6.8 yuan per jin, with a gross profit exceeding 200 yuan per pig.
When asked about the recent rise in prices, Sun Shuhua said that pig prices were extremely low in the spring this year, losing two or three hundred yuan for every pig sold. By June...
[Linyi] Increased demand pushes up pork prices. Jinhua Group is one of the largest pig slaughter bases in Linyi. On November 3rd, reporters arrived at the Jinhua Industrial Park located in the suburbs of Linyi city.
Song Banglai, Sales Director of the Fresh Products Division of Jinhua Group, told reporters that retail prices in over 16,000 specialty stores nationwide, including those in Qingdao, had been raised twice within three days.
[LaiXi] Reluctant to sell 100 pigs. In just ten days, the purchase price of live pigs rose by four or five mao per catty, giving Li Bing, a villager from HouTa Village in LaiXi who raises over 400 pigs, hope for profit. He told reporters, "If it rises a bit more, the profit will be quite considerable." Li Bing said that currently, the gross profit for one pig is 200 yuan, and after deducting labor costs and other expenses, there is almost nothing left. Therefore, surrounding breeders neither replenish their stock nor rebuild pig farms. The only way to follow the upward trend is "reluctance to sell."
Li Bing's family has over 100 pigs that have exceeded 200 jin, but he is reluctant to sell them.
Production site visit [Jiaonan] Cost increase is the main reason. On the afternoon of November 4th, reporters drove to Yushun Farm in Shangzhuang Village, Baoshan Town, Jiaonan City. This is one of the larger pig farms in Baoshan Town, with an annual output of about 1,000 pigs, mainly sold to slaughterhouses in Jiangsu, Anhui, Zhucheng, Gaomi, and other places within the province.
"From piglets to market-ready pigs, all related costs have increased." In the eyes of Li Xueyu, the boss of the farm, the recent rise in pork prices is not accidental, and cost increases are the main cause. Li Xueyu gave reporters an account: he purchases piglets twice a year, and the price of piglets has risen from 5.7 yuan per catty in the middle of the year to 6 yuan per catty; pig feed prices have skyrocketed, with corn rising from originally 0.9 yuan per catty to nearly 1.1 yuan per catty; labor costs have also risen from originally 20 yuan per day to now thirty to forty yuan per day. "Generally, pigs are sold once they exceed 160 jin in weight. Before September, one could earn about 60 yuan per pig, now it's about 80 yuan." Li Xueyu said.
Pig prices finally rebounded in July, but feed prices also began to rise. "Corn collected from local farmers costs 1 yuan per catty, and soybean meal has risen from 1.7 yuan per catty to 1.85 yuan per catty." Sun Shuhua said that the current profit margin is relatively reasonable, and she is quite satisfied.
"Not in a hurry, let's wait and see. We lost a lot in the first half of this year, and feed prices soared in the second half. Breeders need to make some money, don't they?"
Opinions No big price surge expected
Almost all industry insiders deny the possibility of pork prices repeating the crazy trend of 2007 this winter.
Zheng Fangyu, a large-scale breeder in Jiaozhou: In 2007, the highest acquisition price for live pigs reached 8.7 yuan per catty. Considering the breeding costs at the time, this price was extremely abnormal, and the reason behind it was a sharp decrease in the number of pigs in stock, leading to supply failing to meet demand. This issue does not exist now. Without special events like pig disease outbreaks, the price increase space will not exceed 0.5 yuan per catty.
Li Xueyu from Jiaonan: With high breeding costs and risks, it's unlikely that the number of pigs in stock will significantly increase within a year. Pork prices will rise before the Spring Festival, with 7 yuan per catty as the target!
Mr. Tian, the factory manager of Wanfu Group, a Qingdao slaughterhouse company: The cap price for live pig acquisitions is 7 yuan per catty. The supply and demand for pork is balanced this year. The recent price increase is related to breeding costs and the entry into the peak consumption season, so the possibility of a large price fluctuation is small.
Official statement: Ample pork supply this winter. Reporters recently obtained some relevant data from the Municipal Commerce Bureau: In October this year, the city's live pig stock was 2.52 million heads, and the number of productive sows was 348,100 heads. Last year during the same period, these numbers were 2.4 million heads and 350,000 heads respectively. That is to say, if there are no unexpected events, this year's supply will not be lower than last year's. "Considering the rise in breeding costs, the current pork price is equivalent to no rise," said Mr. Luan, director of the Vegetable Office of the Municipal Commerce Bureau. Although entering the peak consumption season will increase demand, various slaughter companies, our city, and the country all have corresponding reserve pork, so the possibility of a large price increase this winter is small.
Song Banglai analyzed that compared to other items in the 'vegetable basket', pork prices have been relatively stable, especially under the circumstances where breeders lost money in the first half of the year and feed prices surged sharply in the second half. The acquisition price for live pigs has only risen by about 5% recently, which is relatively normal. In addition, Song Banglai indicated that the recent rapid price increase may be related to demand. As the weather gets colder, citizens' demand increases, and meat processing enterprises are preparing for the Spring Festival, resulting in increased sales.