Early warning mechanism should be established for agricultural products
Recently, the A-share market has started to warm up. The index has quickly risen from 2600 points and stabilized at 3000 points. This good news for stock investors has caused concerns in the agricultural products market. Some insiders are worried that will speculative funds suddenly leave the agricultural products market and enter the stock market? Will the prices of agricultural products fall significantly because of this?
From the initial "Garlic, you're ruthless," "Beans, you're playing with me" to today's "Sugar Emperor," "Apple, what is going on?" It has become a consensus in the industry that the agricultural products market has been severely speculated by speculative funds. Under the situation of the A-share market warming up, will these speculative funds suddenly leave?
Zhang Yuanhong, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with China Business News that the decline in the prices of agricultural products will not be too large. "Redwood furniture can be considered as collectibles, and cannot supply more in the short term. The sky-high price of redwood furniture is like a castle in the air. However, agricultural products are different. The current concern about the supply of agricultural products in the industry is relatively high. The rise in agricultural product prices has fundamental support."
Regarding this, Zhou Siran, a researcher in the food industry at China Investment Consulting, also said in an interview with China Business News that indeed, some speculative funds may shift to the stock market, after all, making money faster is more attractive. This year, the increase in prices of agricultural products such as mung beans, garlic, ginger, and sugar has indeed been astonishing. After some speculative funds withdraw from the agricultural products market, the prices of these agricultural products should see a decline.
Fortunately, the possibility of all speculative funds leaving is not very high. "There is a part of speculative funds in the agricultural products market that specifically invests in the direction of agricultural products. These speculative funds have relatively rich experience in speculating on agricultural products, stable channels, and are unlikely to leave the agricultural products market and enter the stock market. Compared to speculating on agricultural products, the stock market carries much greater risks." Zhou Siran remarked.
"To establish an early warning mechanism, a huge market information network must be established nationwide to collect information on the area and output of agricultural products in various regions, understand market sales information covering the whole country and the production and price trends of agricultural products, while collecting international agricultural trade and market information to establish a forecasting system." Zhou Siran said.
Zhang Yuanhong also indicated that our country still has a blank spot in the early warning of small agricultural products. Any slight change in their supply and demand relationship often leads to several times or even higher price changes. Our country must establish a price supervision system for small agricultural products and timely release their supply and demand data.
However, since it involves national economy and people's livelihood, fluctuations in the prices of agricultural products cannot be ignored. The previous case of redwood furniture serves as a warning. Zhou Siran suggests that in order for our country's agricultural products market to develop healthily and stably, the government should provide sufficient and stable investment channels for speculative funds to carry out diversified investments. At the same time, the government should improve the early warning mechanism of the agricultural products market. Although our country launched the construction of the agricultural products market monitoring and early warning system as early as 2002, the monitoring scope only includes corn, wheat, cotton, soybeans, sugarcane, rice, oilseeds, etc., which are greatly affected by the international market. The coverage is not nationwide but limited to a few regions. The early warning method is also limited to monitoring analysis and relying on experience.