Currently, the number of deceased individuals on Facebook has not yet surpassed those who are alive, as Facebook is still a social network predominantly used by younger people. However, will this situation change over time? If it does, when will the number of deceased individuals on Facebook surpass those who are alive? The result is: if it happens, it will be in either 2060 or 2130, according to calculations by Randall Munroe, the creator of the xkcd comic.
Randall explained that based on the growth rate of Facebook users and estimates of user ages, there may already be between 10-20 million users on Facebook who have passed away. In 2013 alone, among just U.S. users, around 290,000 would die or have already died. Expanding the scope globally for 2013, several million Facebook users might already be deceased. Over the next seven years, the mortality rate will double, then continue to double. Even if Facebook were to stop accepting new registrations tomorrow, a significant number of its current users would still die within the coming years.
If Facebook loses popularity and fewer people continue using it with no new users added, the number of deceased users will surpass living users after 2065, as shown in the graph below.
If Facebook continues to be successful and attracts new users consistently, this scenario could occur around 2130.
[oioi via gizmod]