Just like the Mac and the iPhone, the iPad is destined to be a niche product.

The iPad Air and iPad mini Retina are indeed impressive, even surpassing the surprise brought by the iPhone 5s in September. Many people have added them to their "must-buy" list. However, the dazzling brilliance of the iPad cannot overshadow the fact that its market share continues to decline. Similar to the smartphone market, Android tablets, with their numerous low-cost options and differentiated designs, are gradually pushing the iPad into a niche market.

In IDC's latest report on global tablet market statistics for the third quarter, the iPad's share has dropped to 29.6%, a historic low. You might think this is due to a lack of new iPad models, but in the third quarter, iPad shipments only increased by 100,000 units compared to last year, reaching 14.1 million units, which is almost flat year-over-year. This marks the first time that iPad shipments have declined consecutively for three months. In contrast, the overall tablet market continues to grow, with global shipments reaching 47.6 million units, significantly higher than last year's 34.8 million units.

The once dominant lead of the iPad over the market no longer exists. Samsung shipped a total of 9.7 million tablets last quarter, more than double the amount from the same period last year. Samsung's market share in the third quarter was 20.4%, making it the second largest globally after Apple. ASUS reached 7.4% market share, ranking third. If this trend continues, Samsung could surpass Apple to become the top tablet manufacturer, while the iPad's share will continue to decline.

Washington Post author Timothy B. Lee put forward a view on Tuesday that the iPad may follow the path of the Mac from years ago. Fundamentally, this still comes down to product variety and pricing. Although Apple's vertical integration model excels at creating new product categories and early adopters are willing to pay a premium for innovation, most consumers often choose cheaper alternatives with diverse options when their functional needs are met.

Moreover, the App ecosystem that Apple prides itself on will eventually be caught up to. Although iOS app revenue still accounts for 74% of all mobile platforms, in today’s era where free software is popular, although Android apps may not be as good, they are sufficient to meet user functional needs. Using free software is a characteristic of typical users.

Timothy's conclusion may seem exaggerated, but his arguments are logical. Apple's consistent vertical integration and closed system, though providing the best user experience, always fails to meet diversified demands in large enough markets. This has already happened twice with Apple, and now it is happening again for the third time.

Should Apple launch a cheap iPad to cater to the market? The answer is obvious; the iPhone 5c has already shown that this situation will not occur. At the October launch event, the price of the iPad mini Retina was actually higher than last year, with the lowest price being offered by the previous generation iPad mini, priced at $299. Meanwhile, competitors like the Nexus 7 and Kindle Fire HD are still being sold for around $200, and Apple shows no intention of introducing a cheaper iPad.

The reason behind this, as Yin Sheng explained very reasonably when analyzing why Apple does not launch a cheap iPhone, is:

A low-cost device plan could disrupt Apple's existing business model without helping it establish a new, powerful one. Ensuring growth by selling more products seems like a good idea in the short term, but it could alter the company's long-term cost structure.

By refusing to become addicted to scale, Apple can focus on the development of revolutionary new products and maintain an innovative pace. And if the smart terminal market weakens, Apple is likely to already be standing at the forefront of the next wave.

The featured image is from iMore.