Market research company Gartner has, for the second time this week, revised downward its forecast for Windows device shipments this year. It said that although a rebound in Windows device shipments is expected next year, the pace of recovery will slow.
Gartner estimates that Windows' share of intelligent device shipments this year will fall by 4.3% compared to last year, more than doubling the 2% predicted four months ago.
Sales of Windows devices are expected to bottom out in 2014 with a market share increase of 9.7%, reaching nearly 367 million units shipped. Gartner had previously estimated that Windows device shipments would grow to 378 million units. The reason for the downward revision in forecasts for Windows device shipments is its status as a "minority player" in the 8-inch tablet market.
In the past four months, there has been no improvement in Microsoft's fundamental issues. Microsoft's heavy reliance on the shrinking traditional PC business — which accounts for 85% of Windows device shipments — and its lack of a feasible strategy to increase smartphone and tablet market share remain significant challenges.
The Surface RT has been nothing short of a disaster, forcing Microsoft to write off $900 million in assets in July due to poor sales of the Surface RT. The Surface Pro 2 starts at $899. The Surface strategy has become a drag on Microsoft.
Gartner is not the only one pessimistic about the rebound in Windows device sales. Market research firm IDC predicts a 7.6% year-over-year decline in global PC shipments in the third quarter — marking the sixth consecutive quarter of declining sales.
Gartner forecasts that smart device shipments in 2013 will reach 2.3 billion units, with Windows devices accounting for 14.3% of this total; next year, this figure is expected to rise to 14.6%. Apple is expected to narrow the gap with Microsoft, capturing 11.7% of the market this year and rising to 13.6% next year. The heroes driving Apple’s growth in smart device shipments are smartphones and tablets. Android’s share of smart device shipments is expected to be 38% this year and 45% next year.
Market research companies like Gartner and IDC have repeatedly postponed their timelines for the rebound in Windows device sales. Windows continues to face numerous challenges, including fewer apps compared to Android and iOS. This is an issue Microsoft needs to address.