Once, I came across a magazine that published a public survey about the most foolish mistakes in human history, and military campaigns against Russia were voted as one of them. Even great figures like Napoleon and Hitler could only take a few bites of Siberian snow before retreating hastily. In China's mobile social battlefield, this rule transforms into not being able to confront Tencent head-on.
From the initial Miliang (a chat app), to the later grand launch of Yixin (another chat app), and then Line from South Korea, it seems that each opening act was met with great enthusiasm, but the endings were always disappointing. This includes the "purest" Laiwang (chat app) launched by Alibaba, the world's largest e-commerce company. Everyone takes turns on the stage, and although we can't predict the beginning, we all know the ending.
"Shoot" Powerless - How to Interact
The term "net friend" might not have been coined by Tencent, but it was certainly popularized by them. Similarly, Tencent wasn't the pioneer of IM (instant messaging), but they are undoubtedly the most understanding social product when it comes to "human desires".
The desire to confide, to flirt, and to seek casual encounters is inherent in human nature. From the initial chat rooms to various localized QQ groups, it seems that Tencent didn't expend too much effort accumulating its initial user base. It simply utilized products that stimulated users' primal desires through word-of-mouth to "easily" achieve success. Some might say that it's because Tencent started early? Back then, ICQ and MSN were growing much faster than QQ. In fact, before being labeled as the "king of knock-offs," Tencent was initially known for product innovation.
I once read an analysis stating that WeChat surpassed Miliang because it quickly followed up two months later, and defeated Miliang by linking with QQ friends. However, in my view, what truly established Tencent's dominance in the mobile social field was the popularity of features like "Shake," "Drift Bottle," and "Find Nearby People" - so-called "hook-up" functions. Subsequently, Tencent managed to clean up its image relatively quickly. Perhaps, Tencent should also thank Momo (another social app), for if it weren't for Momo further popularizing these features, WeChat might have struggled longer to cleanse its image.
Now looking at Line, Yixin, and Laiwang, they all start by pursuing high-end, luxurious styles, avoiding ambiguity, hook-ups, and pornography, naturally not engaging in any form of "shooting." They are all formal social dance parties under the spotlight, discarding all bad habits. And in their promotions, they spare no effort. Yet, for such products, there don't seem to be many users willing to buy into them. A quick check of the recent publicly announced user scales of various apps shows that Momo far exceeds Yixin and Laiwang. If you can't even surpass Momo, how can you challenge WeChat? You might say that since Yixin and Laiwang have been launched for a short time, having fewer users is normal. But let me tell you, be content. Perhaps you've forgotten that the user numbers for Miliang have been continuously decreasing, or the once-popular NetEase Bubble and Sina UC on PCs.
Next, let's humorously analyze some currently active social apps in the market (the following content is purely for entertainment and should not be taken seriously).
One, Martial Arts Master: WeChat
Among nine dragon sons, each is different.
WeChat is currently enjoying unparalleled glory, its status as the social master is uncontested, even its close sibling Mobile QQ has to avoid its sharp edge. On WeChat, Tencent seems to want to replicate the model of using QQ as the core to promote surrounding services. Currently, the most efforts are focused on WeChat Moments, Official Accounts, games, Micro Life, and payment functions, among others. In stark contrast to the other apps' vigorous development, Micro Life seems to still be struggling to find its star avenue (the main reason being Groupon's lack of strength as Tencent's primary offline life service provider), while the payment function is still in its infancy. Although it poses a significant threat and destructive power to Alibaba and future mobile e-commerce, forming a scale will still take some time.
Overall, WeChat's strategy of constantly iterating and launching peripheral products is relatively successful at this stage, but ultimately it depends on the competitiveness of each sub-product. As Tencent's dominant position continues to strengthen, relying on iOS and Android for development will eventually face restrictions. Being prepared for all eventualities is always a good idea.
Two, Veteran in the Community: Miliang
Fated to be abandoned
Mr. Lei, do you still remember Miliang by Daming Lake? Indeed, it has been a long time since anyone remembered this product. As the earliest mobile social product, it once enjoyed a period of immense popularity. Unfortunately, from the moment it was born, its tragic end was predetermined. In Xiaomi's $10 billion valuation, I wonder how much Miliang contributes. But it's always the new ones who laugh, while the old ones cry silently. The flourishing business of Xiaomi phones makes one wonder how the people in the Miliang product department feel. It seems that Xiaomi phones' system isn't even forcibly bundled with Miliang now. So, where does the road lead?
Like a meteor streaking across the sky, it can only leave behind some memories. In the future, perhaps we'll see Miliang's name again in documents about the history of mobile social apps. A comeback is not impossible, but extremely difficult. Perhaps closer to us is the question of when Mr. Lei will completely cut ties with Miliang.
Three, Evil Sect Leader: Momo
Where does the road lead?
Momo's ultimate move is well-known. The sudden emergence of Momo must have made WeChat very happy, like a relay race. After completing the initial promotion, Momo quickly took over the "hook-up" banner, presenting a scene of exclusive beauty for a time. This relay increased Momo's user base exponentially. However, at this stage, Momo, which developed thanks to the "beauty dividend," probably wants more than anything to shed the label of "hook-up god." Struggling between commercialization and socialization, focusing on hook-ups would increasingly distance it from the commercialization process, while emphasizing commercialization would weaken hook-ups, possibly even losing users. Choosing might be the hardest part, becoming the next YY doesn't seem as simple as imagined. Where does the road lead? It seems there aren't enough people walking it yet.
Four, Spoiled Rich Kid: Yixin
Forgotten the bloody history of NetEase Bubble
Yixin is now so empty that you can hear echoes, which is not an exaggeration. Now, it seems that apart from employees of NetEase and Telecom, almost no one is speaking. Even more exaggeratedly, previously built groups and added contacts have turned into black holes. The state of Yixin leaves men silent and women in tears, full of sighs. Yixin's launch event was the grandest and most spectacular among all mobile social apps, with Telecom, Zhang Chaoyang, and Qi Xiangdong all showing up to support. The face-saving couldn't have been bigger, and the initially introduced free SMS and call functions (though with many bugs) did attract many users. However, ultimately, due to not understanding the essence of social interaction and the absence of a killer feature, Yixin's activity rate has been getting lower and lower.
Arrogant ambitions but fragile fate, breaking WeChat's monopoly has become nothing more than empty talk. Alright, everyone should remember the bloody history of NetEase Bubble, which eventually became an internal communication tool for NetEase. Will Yixin become the next NetEase Bubble?
Five, Aristocratic Offspring: Laiwang
Ideals are full, reality is harsh
Now adjust your breathing, the most trouble-making big boss is about to appear. Alibaba's de-commercialized "pure" social app Laiwang burst onto the scene, besides relying on Alibaba's previous PR energy to create a thunderous reputation, the product itself doesn't seem to have too many highlights. Read after deletion, doodling? There doesn't seem to be any new concepts. Group chats? Without users, it's like hammering away in a crowd. On the contrary, after de-commercialization, it becomes pure, but so what? Yixin can at least serve as an internal mobile social IM for Telecom and NetEase. What follows for de-commercialized Laiwang? Breaking the pot may result in no return, and there is only one Xiang Yu.
Some products seem to have no users other than the CEO. Fortunately, Alibaba's employees share a value belief, allowing them to stand together with the CEO in honor and disgrace.
Six, New Talent in Martial Arts: Renren
If you don't make a move soon, it will be too late
In fact, there are many mobile IM apps more qualified to be on this list than Renren. Renren doesn't even count as a pure IM client, it's more like a community for acquaintances, similar to a larger version of WeChat's Moments (Renren can strengthen connections between circles through you as a medium, whereas WeChat Moments are isolated between different friend circles). However, it's rumored that Renren's mobile app will undergo major changes in the 2014 version, with the main interface becoming more like IM. This is akin to doing WeChat in reverse, starting with Moments and then moving to IM. Both are communities for acquaintances, but the school attribute is stronger in Renren.
Differentiation exists, whether the product can keep up remains to be seen. Perhaps if Mr. Chen Yizhou could spend some of his stock research time on product optimization and Renren's development, achieving a certain user scale wouldn't be too difficult. Roll on, Ah Xin, but time waits for no one.
Seven, Extra Player: Line
Really don't know what to say
Currently available information indicates that Line originated from South Korea, backed by digital companies; upon trying out the product, the design appears messy, with no discernible features. Yet, it claims to have over 300 million users globally, promoting itself as the global leader. Perhaps when China opens Facebook, Line might have a chance. For now, I really don't know what to say...
Mobile social apps have changed people's lives and carried the youth and memories of a generation. Recently, I read a report indicating that users aged 45-54 have accounted for 45% of Facebook's user base since the end of 2012, while teenagers prefer Tumblr, prompting reflection. No one wants monopolies, nor does anyone wish for Tencent to dominate alone. We continue to look forward to and expect greater products that can bring new excitement to our social interactions and change the world.
P.S.: I am an IM enthusiast, often traveling, occasionally using features like "Shake" and "Find Nearby," lingering in some ambiguous communities. Fortunately, even if we meet, we will surely remain strangers.