Apple may launch a 13-inch iPad in the next year or two.
Rumors about Apple releasing a 13-inch iPad have been around for quite some time. As early as late July this year, The Wall Street Journal learned from Asian component suppliers that Apple was testing several new products, one of which was a tablet with a screen size of approximately 13 inches. Of course, this news did not attract much attention from the majority, with many dismissing it as mere idle gossip. Some websites and netizens also believed that testing does not necessarily mean a product will be released, and perhaps the 13-inch screen device that Apple tested would ultimately not be applied to a tablet. Perhaps, they were right.
What truly caught my attention and prompted deeper reflection was an opinion article published by CNET in early October. This article claimed that an iPad with a massive 13-inch screen would not only be a successor to Apple's Mac but also a strong competitor to Microsoft's Surface products. The article cited a relatively noteworthy prediction from Barclays Capital Research: the 64-bit A7 chip used in the iPhone 5S would change future iPads. This change would not only be reflected in physical size (it would become larger) but also in functionality—it would be capable of doing more.
After reading this, I seriously pondered: is this really possible?
From the current "state" of the iPad, Apple still has work to do.
According to data from market research company Gartner, global tablet shipments soared by 42.7% in 2013. However, under these circumstances, Apple's tablet business experienced a decline. In the last quarter, Apple shipped 14.6 million iPads, down from 17 million during the same period last year, representing a year-over-year drop of 14%. For the fourth quarter of this year, analysts predict that Apple's iPad sales will continue to decline, with Morgan Stanley forecasting 13 million units, expecting a 7% year-over-year decrease.
Looking at the data provided by IDC: in August, Apple's iPad had approximately a 33% share of the tablet market, whereas this number was around 60% a year ago.
In light of this situation, I believe Apple needs a unique iPad to boost its business, not just a simple configuration upgrade.
So, what might a unique iPad look like?
It would resemble the Surface.
If Apple really needs to launch a unique iPad to revitalize its business, first, it would be a large-screen device, possibly 13 inches or perhaps 12 inches. Second, its form factor would be similar to Microsoft's Surface, though with differences: Apple's Smart Cover, in addition to keyboard and touchpad functions, might also include a built-in battery to further extend battery life.
Additionally, due to the application of the 64-bit processor from the iPhone 5S, this iPad, potentially boasting a 13-inch screen, would have more memory, with a price range between $600 and $800. The earliest release date could be next year.
Why does Apple want to launch a large-screen iPad?
Up until now, you may still be unclear about why Apple wants to launch a large-screen iPad. Besides needing a unique iPad to boost its business, there are other reasons that dictate Apple should introduce a large-screen iPad similar to the Surface:
1. The iPad cannot always remain a "toy": When people think of the iPad, their first reaction is usually entertainment. Its main application scenarios are typically on the sofa, bed, or even in the bathroom, with primary consumption behaviors involving watching movies, e-books, and PDF files. However, most people only have these needs in the initial few years. Since the end of 2012, the popularity of large-screen phones and crossover phones (i.e., phablets) has replaced the iPad's role in these scenarios, thus requiring Apple's iPad to move beyond its "toy" positioning if it wishes to continue evolving.
2. Demand for a single device: Some might argue that the iPad's uses go beyond the aforementioned scenarios, with some companies using iPads to showcase their applications or products at trade shows. That's correct; iPads indeed have greater demand in such situations. But if there were a device that had both the form factor of a tablet for display (and entertainment) and the form factor of a laptop for efficient text processing, wouldn't you use it? Nowadays, our backpacks are filled with large-screen phones, iPads, and everyday laptops. At this point, don't you wish to lighten your load? Sure, normally it might not matter much, but when traveling, don't you especially desire a device that can both entertain and efficiently handle text processing? If so, then we both have a need for a single device.
3. An inevitable development for Apple: Some might question whether, even if there is such a demand, Apple would never release a large-screen iPad because it would inevitably impact the sales of Apple computers. However, the reality is that according to IDC's PC shipment data for the third quarter, released on October 10th this year, Apple's computer sales decline in the U.S. market was particularly noticeable—sales dropped by 11.2%. One reason for the decline in Apple computer sales might be that some users are waiting for the new MacBook, but more importantly, it's due to the impact of mobile devices. Under such circumstances, launching a large-screen iPad is very necessary. Not innovating means being overtaken by others. Rather than passively waiting, it's better to take a risk and actively let the iPad business impact the Apple computer business. This approach won't significantly affect Apple because it's merely shifting profits from the left hand to the right hand.
4. iLife, iWork free, a harbinger of Apple’s push towards large-screen iPads: On October 22nd, Apple announced at its event that the iLife and iWork software suites would be free on iOS devices. This move is clearly aimed at competing with tablets like Microsoft's Surface that can be used for both entertainment and commercial office work. Since Apple has started aggressively promoting business office software, how far away can the launch of a large-screen iPad similar to the Surface be?
5. Devices similar to the Surface represent the best form for tablet development: BlackBerry CEO Thorsten Heins mentioned in an interview in May this year that tablets would no longer be necessary in five years. In my article "Will Tablets Really Vanish in the Next Few Years," I also pointed out that tablets will no longer be necessary in the future.
The main reasons are:
Portability and practicality are inferior to smartphones
Specialization is inferior to desktop PCs and enterprise desktop virtual deployments
Under the trend of integration, multifunctional computing devices will replace tablets
The popularity of tablets is only a temporary phenomenon and doesn't indicate anything significant
Performance and functionality are inferior to devices combining tablet and notebook forms, like those similar to the Surface
Therefore, the current form of tablets is not their final developmental form. They must transform to avoid the awkward role that tablets might face in the future. Thus, they must become more practical, combining entertainment and office functions. The Surface has well indicated the ultimate direction of tablet development. Consequently, Apple, which once led world trends, may also have to follow the optimal developmental path set by Microsoft's Surface this time.
Summary: Jobs defined the tablet at its inception—it's not a PC; it's merely a balance between the functions of a laptop and the portability of a smartphone, a supplement. However, after this role has been gradually filled by large-screen smartphones, Apple must introduce a large-screen iPad to gradually transition.
System competition is the fundamental reason I believe Apple will introduce a large-screen iPad.
Besides the aforementioned reasons, I believe the most fundamental reason Apple will introduce a large-screen iPad is: the need for the convergence of mobile and desktop systems.
Currently, mobile devices and desktop PCs each have their own separate system. However, looking to the future, the convergence of these two is an inevitable trend. In terms of the system combinations among Microsoft, Google, and Apple, Microsoft's Windows Phone and Windows combination currently have the greatest chance of success. Among Apple's iOS and Mac OS and Google's Android and Chrome OS combinations, Chrome OS's weak performance places Google at the bottom among the three. However, due to its open-source and free advantages, it's highly likely that in the future system competition, the fusion of Google's Android and Chrome OS will surpass Apple.
Therefore, after Microsoft launched the Surface device to explore the convergence of mobile and desktop systems, it is also very necessary for Apple to introduce a large-screen iPad similar to the Surface to pave the way for future system competition.
Last question: If the iPad is no longer portable, does it lose its meaning?
After Apple launches a large-screen iPad, the portability of this new form of iPad will undoubtedly be affected. Some may question whether this would make the tablet, which has always emphasized portability, lose its significance.
Here, it's important to understand that portability is no longer the top priority for tablets because their role as content consumers has been replaced by large-screen smartphones and crossover phones. At this moment, for tablets, combining entertainment and simple office tasks is their greatest requirement.
It's worth emphasizing that I am merely stating that Apple may introduce a large-screen iPad similar to the Surface in the future. I am not negating the existence of the current size or smaller iPads, as they will continue to exist for a while.
Final Thoughts:
As I mentioned in my article "The Second Generation Surface Is Indeed Mediocre But Represents the Future Trend," after the wave of tablet entertainment subsides, people may suddenly realize that life involves more important things than just entertainment. This awakening of awareness and recognition will also be one of the factors driving Apple to release a more practical large-screen iPad.
