The global mobile internet is showing high-speed development. In terms of its most basic platform architecture, it is basically a parallel world between Apple's iOS and Google's Android. We are not short of innovators, with Microsoft's Windows Phone (hereinafter referred to as WP) and BlackBerry's BlackBerry OS bringing new competition. The mobile internet revolution around the world is forming an ecosystem on these platforms, bringing convenience and habit changes to our lives, and opening up huge gold mines and infinite possibilities for practitioners.
Considering the layout of mobile internet platforms, Nokia decided as early as 2011 to exclude Android and choose WP as the preferred system for Lumia smartphones. Over the past two years, Nokia now occupies nearly 80% of the global WP platform smartphone market share. Nokia has also slowed down its decline and achieved basic profitability.
However, even today, we still perceive Nokia as a company that only sells hardware. The WP platform also shows market performance that is disconnected from other ecosystems: in terms of its own applications, it always rehashes old Microsoft products; popular application developers always delay or reluctantly maintain their products; users who have purchased WP platform terminals have needs but cannot get them met. This gradually escalates into a serious bottleneck for a platform ecosystem. We cannot control the development and existence of the ecosystem, but we can identify, think about, and judge from the problems. I think it's time.
Identification: WP's fragmented market performance
According to data from market research company Gartner, in terms of global mobile terminal sales in the first quarter of 2013, Apple's iOS accounted for 18.2%, Google's Android was 74.4%, and Microsoft's WP market share was only 2.9%. As of June data, Nokia Lumia shipments have exceeded 27 million units, with a total of 7.2 million WP terminal devices domestically in China, maintaining a state of slight growth in a small to medium-sized market.
In terms of apps, according to official Microsoft data, the current WP store already has more than 140,000 applications, with an average download number of 55 for WP users. In these app markets, there are also different differences in app development between the US-European market and the Asian market: concentrated popular apps in the US-European market, updated and lagging popular apps in the Asian market; both generally lack high-quality apps. Both Microsoft and Nokia have stated that they need more time. In terms of terminal sales, Nokia adopts a top-down terminal marketing strategy: flagship lumia1020 and more affordable price WP new products entering the market. Microsoft, in order to boost developer enthusiasm, improves the Windows kernel to make app development easier, and sets up millions of dollars in incentives for win8 and WP developers.
Here we can find a bipolar contradiction: WP terminal device sales are growing, but the app market has far from caught up. There is clearly a divergence between Microsoft and Nokia, despite Nokia repeatedly stating that choosing WP was the right way out. But until today, I believe that the WP line is more of Nokia overextending its brand and users, exchanging for the current market situation. This is similar to HTC encountering obstacles in WP development and Samsung planning to develop its own system platform--in the face of the global mobile internet wave, Microsoft behind WP seems to be falling behind.
Thinking: Not market-oriented enough, WP is stuck in a dilemma
The basis for saying that WP is falling behind comes from looking at the current situation. If you randomly open the review section of a WP app, you will find dissatisfaction: developers predict difficult profitability after product launch, so whether or not they can receive Microsoft's development incentive is the primary condition, which causes delays, design oversights, and even absences of many popular apps; the user experience on the app end is terrible, WP users are less likely to try paid apps, and waiting for updates is unbearable. Compared with Apple's App Store and the Android market, WP's platform ecosystem is relatively poor and shows a worsening trend. Who is responsible for these issues? Or, behind these data appearances, who is more responsible for solving these problems?
I believe the problem may lie more with Microsoft: compared to previous platforms, terminals using the WP platform indeed show significant improvements in operational experience. However, in the open mobile market, WP has almost no achievements outside of XBOX games. Importantly, WP and Nokia tightly hold onto important sectors like photography and maps, with little innovation support in connected states, making it essentially an optional third choice for developers. Most WP users would agree: in terms of basic functions and hardware experience, WP terminals obviously have advantages; but as soon as connected apps are used, they immediately fall short compared to Apple and Android.
This explains why Nokia and HTC, these WP terminal manufacturers, still seem to only sell hardware. The root cause may be that Microsoft's WP never understood the open mobile market: build a sustainable ecosystem platform, then let connected apps bring changes to users' lives and habits. As for platform competition, the essential requirement is to attract developers to go online in the first place and develop unique competitiveness on that platform. These two points have clearly disappointed us with WP, as it hasn't met either one.
Judgment: Microsoft's elite mentality, misjudging the mobile internet market
From the perspective of WP's user experience, Win8 and WP give me the feeling of Microsoft replicating its PC internet mindset to the mobile end. Developers being late has something to do with the scarcity of users, but if developers start leaving, the next ones to leave will definitely be the users. Compared with the thriving Apple and Android in China, many domestic developers have expressed, "Now the distribution platforms for the WP system are burning money waiting for tomorrow." In fact, developers are unwilling to delve deeply into the WP platform, and the fundamental reason is that they not only worry about themselves, but also have to worry about the platform: WP is not a mature market, while developers need mature conditions to operate. The reality is that most developers think, "Wait until WP sells 80 million units, then I'll act," while WP and Nokia think, "Wait until I sell 80 million units." And the user market will simply say, "That one was better before."
Therefore, in the mobile internet era, a company must clearly and transparently explain its concept and plans to the market and users. Foreign media have also criticized Microsoft: compared with Apple, iOS developers and user groups can basically rest assured about the compatibility experience when the platform upgrades; but when Microsoft launched WP8, it openly announced that devices running WP7 would not be supported or upgraded to the next version. From the perspective of product operations, this is confidence in one's own business model and respect for the user market. We can also see from WP's frequent adjustments that Microsoft and developers are not confident or blindly confident about WP. Time is running out, with increasing numbers of developers leaving and user resentment building, WP's reform is really urgent.
Looking beyond the surface at the growth behind the market scale, it must be a problem with the business model and original positioning: the WP in the mobile internet era still resembles the PC giant of yesteryear. The big boss wants to hold everything tightly, which makes communication between developers and users unfavorable. Microsoft's immaturity shows more: Win8 lukewarm reception, controversy over Surface versions, high pricing and sudden price drops. This is enough to reflect the immaturity of this giant in the mobile internet sector. The mobile internet is a market that requires cooperation from all parties, and now the relationship between Microsoft and developers has become increasingly观望and cooling. From the perspective of expecting overall prosperity in the mobile internet, on the one hand, we look forward to Microsoft making strong and swift changes to bring about change. On the other hand, we lament Microsoft and WP's pride, allowing others in the world to have more possibilities.
(Author's introduction: Su Yiyi, technology brand commentator. Sharing technology information and exploring brand perspectives. WeChat public account: Su Yiyi.)