In the technology field, experts, professors, and some CEOs love to "predict" various things in order to showcase their visionary foresight. As facts have shown, some predictions seem quite accurate today, while others are extremely off the mark, sounding more like huge jokes. Below, we will take a look at the top 10 most unreliable predictions about tech and digital products in history, including even "legendary" figures like Steve Jobs.
1. "The iPhone won't succeed" — Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer (April 2007)
Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer could be described as a "big mouth," often making shocking statements or predictions, with one of the funniest being his claim that the "iPhone wouldn't succeed." When the first iPhone was released in 2007, Steve Jobs called it a "reinvention of the phone," but Ballmer publicly stated: "The iPhone will not gain any significant market share," citing reasons such as high contract prices. Fast forward to 2013, the iPhone not only captured 42% of the U.S. smartphone market and 13.1% globally, but also brought numerous new inspirations to the mobile industry in terms of design, operation, and functionality, becoming one of the greatest digital products of modern times.
2. "People don't need home PCs" — DEC CEO Ken Olsen (1977)
In fact, when Compaq acquired DEC in 1998, CEO Ken Olsen should have realized how big of a mistake he had made. He once said during a speech: "People don’t need to use PCs at home." Although he later explained that the media had taken this statement out of context, what he actually meant was that people didn't need to depend on computers for everything. However, by 2013, IDC predicted total PC sales would reach $345 million. If you include smartphones and other portable PC-like devices, it's clear that people indeed need computers of various kinds at all times.
3. "Within five years, tablets will no longer be popular" — BlackBerry CEO Thorsten Heins (2013)
Perhaps BlackBerry CEO Thorsten Heins just wanted to forget the failure of the PlayBook or maybe he forgot about something called the "iPad." Regardless, his "death of tablets" theory is one of the funniest predictions in the tech industry this year. Even though a month later, he mentioned BlackBerry still has interest in the tablet market, it was too late. In reality, tablet sales grew by 142% in 2013 compared to the previous year, and products of various sizes continue to emerge. The claim that they would "disappear within five years" is pure fantasy.
4. "Music streaming subscription models are outdated" — Former Apple CEO Steve Jobs (2003)
The late former Apple CEO Steve Jobs made many correct predictions, including the coming of the post-PC era and the death of Flash technology (though partially driven by Apple). But he also made incorrect judgments. Despite iTunes' massive success in the digital music space, Jobs was very skeptical about subscription-based music streaming models. However, Spotify now boasts 6 million subscribers, and Apple launched its own iTunes Radio subscription service this year, clearly showing it's a growing trend.
5. "Remote shopping will not succeed" — Time Magazine (1966)
Maybe in the 1960s and 70s, catalog shopping didn't succeed, but that doesn't mean remote shopping is unfeasible. Time Magazine gave the reason that women prefer window shopping and buying products through real-life experiences. However, e-commerce has completely changed this form of shopping. From luxury brands like Burberry down to items on Taobao, women worldwide share a common hobby—shopping online!
6. "Windows Phone's market share will climb to second place by 2015" — IDC (2011)
Famous research firm IDC once claimed in 2011 that Windows Phone's market share would rise to second place by 2015, surpassing the iPhone. But looking at the situation now, this seems like an "impossible mission." In the first quarter of 2013, WP's market share was only 3.2%, even lower than the previous Windows Mobile, far behind iOS and Android systems. At this point, IDC quietly revised its prediction, stating that the third place in the market would be between Microsoft and BlackBerry.
7. "The Internet will crash in 1996" — Ethernet inventor Robert Metcalfe (1995)
Ethernet inventor Robert Metcalfe predicted in 1995 that the Internet would suffer a catastrophic collapse in 1996. Of course, everyone was fine. But this internet pioneer wasn't idle; in 2011, he again made claims about a "social network bubble"—Facebook, watch out…
8. "HP will become No.1 in the tablet market" — HP VP Erik Cadde (2010)
After HP acquired Palm at a sky-high price to obtain Web OS and released the TouchPad, naturally there was some arrogance, leading to the above bold statement. Of course, facts have proven that Web OS was a complete failure, and HP's mobile internet strategy has thus been dashed.
9. "Cellular phones will not replace landline phones" — Inventor Marty Cooper (1981)
Not all inventors are farsighted, and even the inventor of the mobile phone, Marty Cooper, failed to correctly predict the future of cellular phones, possibly because he didn't consider digital technology at the time. Clearly, digital cell phones have replaced landlines and become indispensable tools, with data showing that more and more people do not have landlines but do have mobile phones.
10. "Flying cars will appear in 1944" — Pilot Eddie Rickenbacker (1924)
Famous pilot Eddie Rickenbacker stated in 1924 that within 20 years, cars would have flying capabilities, similar to seaplanes. Of course, this is just a scene from science fiction movies, and it's hard to imagine widespread adoption anytime soon. However, an American company is already working on this project, requiring a prepayment of approximately $280,000, with operations starting officially in 2015.