Without further ado, straight to the notes.
1. No progress in communication, is it locked down?
As a communication tool, WeChat has made almost no progress in communication this time, as if it has been locked down by the proton of the Three Body problem. Between so many add-ons and the completely unprogressive main body, it is WeChat's regression or the blindness of analysts. This should be the keynote, the number before the decimal point, which is 1. The status of new features is just the number after the decimal point, even if it's 9, it's only 1.9 points, not 9.1 points.
So many people have ignored this point, which is surprising.
2. The direction of commercialization is gaming, e-commerce has no chance
It's understandable for WeChat to monetize. Soon, the demographic dividend of WeChat (mobile internet) will also close, maybe, this is the reason for its urgent expansion horizontally.
From the new version, gaming is the main direction of commercialization. The reason is very simple, gaming is a standardized service, suitable for WeChat's simple I/O communication standard, and it makes money fast. As for the e-commerce that many people fantasize about, frankly, there is no hope. In the premise that offline is not ready at all, let's talk about the so-called O2O closed loop after another 3 years of effort, okay.
3. Tencent's WeChat, not WeChat's WeChat
The functions added by WeChat may not be what WeChat wants, but they are definitely what Tencent wants and what Tencent will give. What's with QR code scanning, what's with games, what's with street view, what's with payment, what's with translation, it's nothing more than various animals under the Tencent system rushing into the ark of WeChat, and the boat can't help it. Since it has been on Mobile QQ, it's only natural to be on WeChat again.
The difficulty for WeChat lies in resisting bloat. Zhang Xiaolong knows how to build ships, but Pony Ma is the God who selects all the people in the world.
4. Retracing QQ's path
Adding a bunch of functions on the basis of communication, QQ has already gone through this road, with both good and bad stories. The good thing is that without traffic, you can't do anything, this supports the Tencent Empire. The bad thing is that having traffic isn't everything, maps, e-commerce, search engines are still half-dead.
It's normal for WeChat to retrace this path on mobile phones, whether it can replicate QQ's success is still uncertain, but this is definitely Tencent's only opportunity in the next ten years. Hopefully users won't get tired after playing games.
5. The richness of WeChat is also demystification
WeChat can tell a good story for the stock market. For the media, HandQ is old, the interface is old, it has already been grouped and is distressing, the world has solidified. Although the real second and third-tier cities are still in HandQ's hands, in first-tier cities, HandQ's image of being young cannot be improved, so it's not fashionable enough. WeChat brings new trends, but in fact, it's still those people, just re-grouped during this process. If revolution comes every seven or eight years, then the software industry is also like this, an APP becomes bigger and bigger, and always needs a simplified version, WeChat is the simplified version of HandQ, it's like a cassock.
But this simplified version is also self-demystifying while becoming richer.
6. Possibilities are disappearing
Before WeChat was released, it was at its peak, and afterwards, it would encounter reality. Before the release, theoretically, there were N possibilities, after the release, these possibilities disappeared one by one. What's called stunning is often vulgar, this is the norm. In the future, WeChat will face more criticism, each self-media uses WeChat to express their own grievances, WeChat is a topic tool, praising it is a form of consumption, and after that, stepping on it is a way to extract remaining consumer value.
7. Talking about traffic without talking about value is cheating
All imaginative space is concentrated on the old story of "if WeChat users all **". Just like the whole nation not giving you one yuan doesn't make you a billionaire worth 1.5 billion yuan, WeChat's traffic and audience will still focus on communication, which is a funnel, only maybe 20% flow into Moments, only 10% play games, only 5% subscribe to public accounts, only 2% follow service accounts, and only 0.1% have commercial value, daily consumers are only 0.00005%. Talking about value without considering traffic quality is hypocritical, and talking about traffic conversion without proportion is shameful.
An APP cannot change the world, don't be so surprised.
8. iOS is Watching You
Even though every APP has the heart of a platform, it doesn't have the fate. A communication tool can do social networking, can勉强do games, but doing e-commerce and integrating the virtual and physical is difficult. WeChat came, it can't eat up everything, there's still UC's market, there's still Baidu's presence, and there's still Alipay's influence. WeChat wants to do Web App Store, but it still has to pass Apple's test.
The so-called true mobile internet platform and core entry point is only one: OS. Too much ambition, beware of being directly penalized by the OS.