After a rush at the end of February, the beginning of March saw a rapid contraction in credit disbursement by the four major banks. An informed person told this reporter that during the first four days of March, the newly added loans from the four major banks decreased by about 30 billion yuan. In February, the newly added RMB loan disbursement by the four major banks was approximately 260 billion yuan.
From the beginning of the year to March 4, the total newly added RMB loans by the four major banks amounted to 550 billion yuan. The new scale in February for the four major banks was around 260 billion yuan, while January's figure was roughly 320 billion yuan, making the cumulative total for January and February approximately 580 billion yuan. Thus, it can be seen that during the first four days of March, the newly added loan scale of the four major banks contracted by about 30 billion yuan.
However, the above-mentioned informed person believed that fluctuations in the timing of credit disbursement by the four major banks were normal. Regarding the current reasons for negative growth, the person believed it was mainly due to insufficient demand. For example, local government financing platforms, before strict controls were imposed, a single loan disbursement by a bank could reach hundreds of billions of yuan, but after strict controls, this outlet for credit disbursement was basically suppressed, naturally leading to the emergence of a weak credit disbursement situation.
Recently, Yan Bingzhu, chairman of Beijing Bank, also told the Securities Times that with the increased strict control over local government financing platform loans and real estate enterprise loans in 2011, the total amount of credit in both areas has been declining.
An industry insider told this reporter that the decline in newly added loans by the four major banks was mainly due to the "point rushing" at the end of last month, and that such a situation had existed for a long time.
[In the last two days of last month, a certain large bank issued more than 20 billion yuan, but most of it was 'helping friendly enterprises rush points'; once it reached the next month, the money was returned to the bank, naturally resulting in a reduction in loan balances.] the person said.
As of February 19, the newly added loans in February by the four major banks were still around 70 billion yuan, with one major bank having negative newly added loans. In late February, the four major banks clearly stepped up their lending efforts, with newly added loan disbursements surging nearly 200 billion yuan, bringing the total for the entire month of February to about 260 billion yuan.
However, the newly added loan disbursement volume in February by the four major banks was still lower than market expectations. Previously, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) estimated that the credit disbursement volume by the four major banks in February should have been around 300 billion yuan, and based on this, they predicted that the overall newly added loan disbursement volume by financial institutions in February should have been between 750 billion and 850 billion yuan.
Previously, the market generally expected that the credit disbursement volume in February should have been higher than in January, but now the market has begun to lower its expectations for February's credit disbursement volume. International finance expert Zhao Qingming, based on the disbursement volume by the four major banks, speculated that the overall credit disbursement volume by all financial institutions in February would be between 650 billion and 750 billion yuan. Previously, Zhao Qingming also believed that the credit disbursement volume in February should have been higher than in January.