Iran’s hard-liners have proven so effective at crushing the opposition that they are now left brawling among themselves. This is the chaotic political scramble in this week's parliamentary elections, the first major voting since the disputed re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in June 2009 and the mass protests, chaos, and crackdowns that followed. The ballots cast on Friday amount to a popularity contest among various conservative factions, which were once united against reformists but are now sniping at each other and picking sides in the power struggle between Ahmadinejad and his opponents within the ruling Islamic theocracy. The outcome could resonate well beyond the 290-seat parliament. In many ways, it may determine whether Ahmadinejad is politically spent or still able to exert influence over next year's elections to pick his successor, who will become Iran’s new international face and inherit challenges that are now hard to predict. The West still favors economic sanctions as the best tool to rein in Iran’s disputed nuclear program, but Israel says a military strike could be necessary if Tehran refuses to ease its defiance.
"This election is a test of strength for the groups still standing after the crackdowns," said Salman Shaikh, director of The Brookings Doha Center in Qatar. "The reformists are out of the picture. Ahmadinejad has been under attack. The question then becomes: Can he get a second wind out of this?"
On a broad level, Iran’s political infighting has created a lot of noise without making any fundamental changes in how the country is ruled. The grip of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the protectors of the ruling system remains as strong as ever. They control all key appointments and policies, including nuclear and defense, while vetting every candidate for president and parliament. Elected officials are allowed some leeway, yet always with the understanding that the clerics at the top can reverse any decision.
"It’s a political show. Elections make sense when they bring change. No change will happen after Friday’s vote," said Sadeq Zibakalam, a Tehran University professor and a liberal-leaning political analyst.
But the political discord points to internal tensions that could spill into critical issues, such as the direction of Iran’s nuclear program or possible attempts at diplomatic overtures with Washington. The U.S. and allies fear Iran’s uranium enrichment could lead to the development of atomic weapons. Tehran insists it only seeks reactors for energy and medical research.
Ahmadinejad, meanwhile, has been left politically wounded after daring to challenge Khamenei’s authority. The president first pushed back against Khamenei’s decision in April to reinstate the intelligence minister, Heidar Moslehi, who had been dismissed by Ahmadinejad. The ruling clerics struck hard. Dozens of Ahmadinejad aides were arrested or driven into the political margins. Hard-line media also began to smear Ahmadinejad’s confidant, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, as head of a "deviant current" that sought to undermine Islamic rule. Some critics even claimed that Mashaei conjured black magic spells to befuddle Ahmadinejad’s mind.