Regarding the global economic situation in 2012, I advocate a positive and optimistic outlook. The outbreak of this round of economic crisis in Europe and America signifies the transformation of contradictions, which implies opportunities. Every major crisis always brings about adjustments in economic structure, and there are always some economies, large enterprises, and emerging industries that rapidly rise during crises.
As for China's economy in 2012, my view is that it will be better than in 2011, and it will be a year of stable development. Many people say that the first half of 2012 will be the most difficult time. In my eyes, the second half of 2011 should have been a relatively difficult period. The hardest times should already be over. In the Year of the Rabbit, the building materials industry will have a stable market. Taking the cement business, which accounts for the largest proportion in the building materials industry, from the [Tenth Five-Year Plan] to the [Eleventh Five-Year Plan], China's cement sales increased from 800 million tons to 1.88 billion tons. In 2011, sales were approximately 2.1 billion tons, an increase of 16%. In 2012, sales are expected to increase by 5%-6%, which is still a significant growth rate.
Cement demand cannot increase without limit, nor can it drop quickly. Infrastructure construction, urbanization, and new rural construction in our country determine that there will still be rigid demand for building materials like cement. However, looking at the supply and demand relationship in the past, the added capacity far exceeded the demand, leading to overall and absolute excess capacity in the cement industry. Cement prices were very low, and the industry did not achieve the expected benefits.
2012 will be the peak year for eliminating outdated cement production capacity, and it will be the last year for many provinces to eliminate small cement plants. Experts predict that in 2012, the nation will eliminate about 100 million tons of small cement production. If this goal is smoothly achieved, it will undoubtedly be a significant boon for existing cement companies. Therefore, in 2012 and for a long time in the future, the balance of supply and demand will gradually tilt towards cement producers, which is conducive to promoting market optimization and price recovery.
In the past few years, the concentration of the cement industry has significantly increased. During the [Eleventh Five-Year Plan], China National Building Material Group initiated joint reorganizations, and by the end of the [Eleventh Five-Year Plan], the industry concentration reached 25%. The [Twelfth Five-Year Plan] aims for a concentration of 35%. I predict that by the end of the [Twelfth Five-Year Plan], this ratio could reach 50%.
Related articles: The harm of computers on the skin, Taobao Alipay registration, in 2012 wooden door enterprises' marketing competition triggers significant manufacturer discounts, Taobao Juhuasuan recruitment.