Roommi News, December 5: Faced with an increasingly complex economic situation, more and more home buyers are falling into a state of "bewilderment", worrying whether they should "take the plunge" and buy property. However, a speech by Professor He Xiaoxing, a renowned economics professor at Xiamen University, allowed every listener to "see clearly through the fog" and have their own "scale" in mind. At 2:30 PM on December 3, a special lecture titled "Analysis of Current Macroeconomic Situation and Private Enterprise Investment Directions" presented by Professor He Xiaoxing of Xiamen University commenced.
In his speech, he stated that first, speculative home buyers (those owning multiple properties) account for between 5% to 10% of all home buyers; secondly, elite group home buyers make up about 20%, who usually own three houses - the first house they bought, and then a second house when they find the first one too small and need a larger one. When the economy reaches a certain capacity, they may buy another villa in the neighborhood for leisure; lastly, the largest proportion of home buyers is those with rigid demands, accounting for about 70%.
At the same time, Professor He compared the historical experiences of urbanization development in other countries and contrasted them with per capita GDP, believing that China's real estate golden period will last at least 30 years. He indicated that countries with a per capita GDP ranging from 1000 to 8000 US dollars will enter a high-speed development period for the real estate industry, which usually lasts for 30 years. Starting from 2003, China's per capita GDP exceeded 1000 US dollars, so based on a 30-year golden cycle, China's real estate golden period can continue until 2033. Moreover, when the per capita GDP exceeds 8000 US dollars but remains below 12000 US dollars, the real estate industry will enter a mature phase, continuing to develop but at a slower pace. In this sense, China's real estate development has another 30 to 40 years.
Regarding the recent announcement by the central bank to cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points starting December 5, Professor He said it would release 700 billion yuan. Meanwhile, combining the European debt crisis with various banks' "moves" to rescue the market, he proposed a not-so-certain idea in his mind: now might be the time to buy a house. (Source: Roommi News)
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