Qualitative analysis: Fisher, the president of the Dallas Fed in the United States, stated that he opposes the Federal Reserve's excessive quantitative easing policy. He emphasized that the responsibility for stimulating the U.S. employment market lies with Congress and the government, not the Federal Reserve. Although low interest rates and a large amount of capital promote corporate hiring and have reduced unemployment rates in recent months, the only way to solve the plight of American labor is to change tax rules and laws that inhibit hiring. No amount of monetary policy can alter this tax issue; even if the Federal Reserve does more to reduce borrowing costs, it will not help. In fact, further monetary easing will only bring heavier concerns and fuel inflation. He would not support launching a third round of quantitative easing, as he believes there is no need for it—QE3 is merely a Wall Street fantasy. The tank of loose monetary policy has already been filled, and his view is that it is 'too full.' Unless the U.S. falls into deflation or there are some unexpected shocks, there is no need for further monetary easing policies. Fisher also called for the Federal Reserve to reset its 2% inflation target, stating that inflation cannot be tolerated.
Preliminary data shows that France's GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter was 0.2% (previous value: 0.3%, estimated value: -0.2%), which is below expectations. The preliminary annual GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter was 1.7% (previous value: 1.5%, estimated value: 1.1%). Germany's preliminary unadjusted annual GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter was 1.5% (previous value: 2.5%, estimated value: 1.8%), which is below expectations. The preliminary seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter was -0.2% (previous value: 0.5%, estimated value: -0.3%). Germany revised its third-quarter GDP growth rate from 0.5% to 0.6%, and its annual GDP growth rate from 2.6% to 2.7%. Italy's preliminary quarterly GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter was -0.7% (previous value: -0.2%, estimated value: -0.6%), slightly below expectations. The preliminary annual GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter was -0.5% (previous value: 0.2%, estimated value: -0.3%). Italy's preliminary annual GDP growth rate for 2011 was 0.4%.
[In conclusion]
Comprehensively speaking, the economic prospects of major Eurozone countries such as Germany are concerning, especially as the Greek issue intensifies. This casts a shadow over the Eurozone's economic recession, increasing market worries about the euro, with some prominent institutions predicting a possible collapse of the euro. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials have expressed their stance against a new round of quantitative easing monetary policies, providing favorable upward momentum for the dollar index. Therefore, under the strong dollar in the short term, gold may experience sharp declines.
[Market Review]
On the 4-hour chart, the short-term moving average of gold forms a bearish alignment with the long-term moving average.
For silver, on the 4-hour chart, the short-term moving average forms a bearish alignment with the long-term moving average.
[Trading Suggestions]
Gold should focus on the suppression effect of the 1725-1726 line; breaking above this level could lead to further rebounds. Important resistance levels for gold: 1735, 1746; important support levels: 1714, 1703.
Silver should focus on the suppression effect of the 33.6-33.7 line; breaking above this level could allow silver to move higher. Important resistance levels for silver: 33.9, 34.2; important support levels: 32.6, 33.0.