Funding market awaits RRR refund

by caip2276 on 2012-02-25 11:48:12

SPD Bank and other institutions indicated that the causes of current fund surface tension are multi-aspect, such as recent CSCEC IPO issuance, fiscal deposits payment, additional payment of margin deposit reserve requirement for small and medium-sized banks on February 15, maturity of reverse repurchase agreements for some banks, etc. HU Da, a Guotai Junan trader, pointed out that a large amount of reverse repurchase agreements before Spring Festival had been recovered after maturity in the post-festival period. In addition, market fund surface has not received direct liquidity replenishment recently. Therefore, even after the news about RRR cut was announced last weekend, market fund interest rates still continued to soar. However, judging from the absolute level of current market fund interest rate, it can not be ruled out that some institutions might take advantage of the situation. CITIC Prudential Yicaijing stated that although foreign exchange purchase re-appeared net inflow, fiscal deposits began to seasonally increase at the same time, thus basically offsetting each other. And the reverse repurchase agreements and extensions conducted by PBOC previously could only ease short-term shocks, which have now faced maturity respectively. Therefore, the excess reserve funds of commercial banks did not increase. After PBOC announced to reduce statutory deposit reserve ratio last weekend, since it has not been officially implemented yet, inter-bank market fund surface is still tight currently. Considering that 7-day repo rate still remains above 5% currently, it is expected that fund surface tension will not be significantly relieved until next week. With regard to the trend of subsequent fund interest rate and open market operations, HU Da believed that the fund surface might still maintain a relatively tight state on Wednesday and Thursday, but after formal RRR cut on Friday, fund interest rate was expected to drop sharply. It is estimated that overnight and 7-day repo rates would fall to the level of around 3% and 3.5%, respectively. Meanwhile, judging from PBOC's operation intention, open market operations this Thursday might be suspended again.