Previously, the author had provided a quantifiable standard for judging the arrival of a medium-term upward trend in three conditions: 1) In the weekly line system, the weekly K-line must recover and stand above the 10-week line. This is the first key condition for a bottoming signal; 2) The 10-week line must clearly be seen turning upwards. This is the second key condition for a bottoming signal; 3) The MACD indicator in the weekly line system must clearly form a golden cross, and at least three definitive red columns must appear. "World stock god" Warren Buffett once said: "I like to buy when others are panicking, and sell when others are crazy," and now, it is precisely the time when the majority is panicked! Are you ready? The above opinions are only one person's view, for reference only. Operations based on this are at your own risk! If you have any questions, feel free to exchange ideas! Xiao Li Feidao from Guangzhou.
In 2011, the U.S., which was deeply mired in a debt crisis, is about to set a new high for its Dow Jones Index. Meanwhile, China, which had no debt crisis in 2011, is preparing to hit a new low in its A-share market. However, China’s A-share market financing amount still reached a global high in 2011! If the technical trends of the market meet all three conditions, then we can confirm that the market will definitely see a medium-term upward trend. The more thorough the previous market adjustment and decline, the stronger the future rise will be. Conversely, the strength of adjustments will vary, such as the 2008 crash followed by the 2009 rally, or the fourth quarter adjustment in 2010 and the first quarter rebound in 2011. This typically reveals the practicality of my "secret move."
Finally, everyone is welcome to tune in every Monday at 8:30 PM to the "Gua Gua" voice chat room to listen to Feidao's analysis of the market, dissection of hot topics, outlook on the market, and sharing of bull stocks. Please remember and bookmark this room, named "Financial Online School," with room number: 352841. History may not repeat itself simply, but it might show surprising similarities! I anticipate that after the Spring Festival this year, there may be a medium-term upward rebound in our A-share market, somewhat similar to the 2008 crash followed by the 2009 rally. Now, please prepare your "new bullets." After the New Year's Day holiday, you will need to be ready to act at any time.
From a technical perspective, since the Shanghai Composite Index began falling from 3067 points on April 28, 2011, the market has currently shown a "wave 3-3" style decline. Now, it is exactly the last wave, but the "time and point" of the end of the last wave remains a mystery to everyone. The arrival of the bottom is also beyond our ability to predict. What we can do is to follow the trend and invest when the trend appears.
Additionally, due to market expectations before the holidays that the reserve requirement ratio might be reduced during the New Year period, this favorable expectation did not materialize. At the same time, because the index advanced to the 20-day moving average, which was originally a mid-term protection line, it has now become a pressure line suppressing the index's upward movement. With the failure of favorable expectations and the 20-day moving average exerting downward pressure, the market opened higher but closed lower, casting a veil of uncertainty over the future.
Today is the first trading day of 2012. Although the US and European markets rose sharply overnight, our A-share market fell continuously after opening higher, and even experienced a plunge at the close due to rumors of a military coup in North Korea. Alas, we thus welcomed the "black start" of 2012.
The Chinese stock market, which is not experiencing a debt crisis, behaves as if it were undergoing one. We can hardly imagine what would happen if China really experienced a debt crisis. Actually, this has always been the strange state of the Chinese stock market. Just like from 2001 to 2005, the global economy and stock markets continued to climb slowly in a bull market, but the Chinese stock market kept declining in a bear market!
Will the A-share market improve or worsen in 2012? This question troubles many people and causes many to continue being bearish on 2012. Under this kind of habitual thinking, will 2012 see a turning point? We will wait and see.
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