The mobile internet war is still in the preheating stage. From previous exchanges with VCs, investors, and mobile internet professionals, I have found that everyone is pushing hard to move forward. According to my observations, the currently hot areas are as follows:
1. Mobile gaming industry cluster, mainly focused on social games and app-store level games. Companies within the industry primarily serve foreign mobile operators and overseas users. Due to domestic openness and data fee issues, mobile gaming has not yet achieved large-scale profitability in China. The industrial pattern is: traditional web-level companies like Shanda are actively joining this industry. The market size is large, and the industry is in a state of "Warring States" chaos. Currently, the mainstream game format is still MMORPGs, and nearly 80% of mobile online games are unprofitable or even losing money. According to recent data from iResearch's "2010 China Mobile Game User Behavior Research Report," among surveyed mobile internet users, the driving force behind mobile games lies in product innovation and pricing models. "Concern about data charges" and "low playability" are the main reasons why users do not play mobile online games. From the overall survey results, high gaming costs and poor user experience are hindering the development of mobile online games. Without rapid market expansion, a large number of new games are flooding in, with significant differences between products. The differences mainly lie in server stability, image detail, and operational smoothness. To break through under the current circumstances, improvements must be made in product quality, pricing models, platform expansion, etc. Moreover, technical and product accumulation should be done before large game manufacturers flood into the mobile online game market to gain stronger competitiveness.
2. Location-based services (LBS) field. Several domestic companies are imitating the LBS layout abroad. The check-in (geek) trend is emerging. I, Tang Xingtong, am very optimistic about this industry chain. In the future, LBS can be combined with map merchants, coupons, reviews, searches, SNS, etc. LBS will create a great enterprise by integrating surrounding resources. This requires a charismatic leader (the Jack Ma or Steve Jobs of the wireless field) to integrate these resources and strong financial support. A conservative estimate suggests an investment of no less than $100 million, with a future market value of over $1 billion or even tens of billions of dollars. I think it will become a leading enterprise in China's mobile internet industry. Positioning or LBS may become the third major internet high ground after PC operating systems and search engines.
3. Operating systems, application embedding in "shanzhai phones." The future belongs to Android, and the hope for the future lies in shanzhai phones—this is a consensus. Currently, everyone is competing for the early embedding of shanzhai phones, which means pre-installing their software. There exist quite a few "black-hearted" companies following the previous SP model, charging fees and making money unethically. "Making money quietly, very low-key," the main companies are concentrated in Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Shanghai, and other places. Another aspect relates to mobile browsers and operating system competition. My view is: open mobile operating systems like Android will dominate in the future, and affordable smartphones will lead the market. Mobile browsers, operating systems, hardware, etc., are stars in the early stages of mobile internet but will become suppliers and infrastructure in the future. Admob's 2010 report shows the shares of different mobile operating systems. Future stars, in my opinion, entertainment consumption such as games and music will continue to lead the development of the mobile internet industry, but I believe their trends will gradually decline from their current dominant position to a reasonable proportion. I personally believe that applications in the future mobile commerce field will be more impactful, involving wireless shopping, wireless search, wireless communities, and interactive modes between wireless and offline businesses.