Kai-Fu: The potential opportunity of mobile internet is 14 times that of PC internet.

by swsw007 on 2010-10-31 21:56:26

The potential opportunities in mobile internet are 14 times those of PC internet: (1) China has 300 million computer users who use their devices for 3 hours daily, (2) China has 800 million mobile phone users who use their devices for 16 hours daily, (3) hence the potential opportunities in mobile internet are 14 times those of PC internet. Reasons why mobile phones will replace PCs as personal information centers: (1) They are cheaper and more convenient than PCs, (2) they create value from fragmented time, (3) they are carried around all day, (4) they have richer interaction methods – touch, compass, voice, and camera, (5) mobile payment convenience – greater consumption potential, (6) more people are willing to store personal information on their mobile phones, (7) geographic information adds value. Challenges in the development of the mobile internet ecosystem: (1) Smartphones are too expensive, (2) there is a lack of good domestic software (not enough developers), (3) 3G fees are too expensive and it's hard to reduce them. Three driving forces to overcome challenges in mobile internet: (1) The rise of smartphones costing less than 1000 RMB (an inevitable consequence of industrial horizontal integration), (2) Diversification of product distribution channels (apart from historical SP + mobile, there are now three carriers, plus internet distribution channels), (3) Diversification of payment channels (developers could only get 30-40% in the SP era, but can get >90% using the father of the internet). Three timing factors to overcome challenges in mobile internet: (1) Huge market gaps (the PC software market is relatively saturated, but the mobile phone software market only has a few popular products), (2) The beginning of a merger wave (Google, Apple, DeNA, even Baidu and Tencent are acquiring companies, which creates exit space and validates opportunities), (3) Development costs at historic lows (open source, cloud computing, online stores). From the PC era, we can learn that network services are the biggest opportunity: (1) The value of internet giants > software giants > chip manufacturers > hardware manufacturers, (2) Mobile internet will be the same, so the biggest opportunity lies in creating service value in mobile internet. Seven predictions: (1) The WAP era is over, welcome to the true mobile internet era, (2) Full-function Android phone prices will drop to 1500 RMB this year and 750 RMB next year, (3) Bandwidth is hard to reduce, so optimize rich clients + minimize bandwidth, (4) Entertainment + social applications will dominate the Chinese mobile internet market. (5) Network market pre-paid models will be replaced by localized payment models, (6) Industry revenue will grow several times within three years: from charging users 5 yuan per game to users actively paying 50 yuan per month, (7) Future user bifurcation: high-end users use mobile phones as tools for fragmented time, while grassroots users conduct all their online activities via mobile phones. Four suggestions for entrepreneurs: (1) Avoid the core areas of giants, but don't be overly afraid, (2) Refer to the US and Japanese markets, but deeply understand the differences, (3) Don't be infatuated with hot concepts, dig into real needs, (4) Use user pain points as opportunities.