Fission on the Eve of the Launch of Stock Index Futures: Future Prospects V8
Today's Observation: Today, the stock market opened higher but closed lower, showing an adjustment trend. Due to the recent volatile market atmosphere, after opening, the stock index quickly probed downwards. Subsequently, the two major petrochemical companies and insurance stocks made strong upward attacks, causing the stock index to quickly rise and turn red. However, the strength of the heavyweight stocks led to a general decline in individual stocks. After turning red, the stock index soon fell into weakness; in the afternoon, the weakness continued and there was a rapid drop. The two major petrochemical companies made another strong upward attack, causing the stock index to slightly rebound. The trading volume of both markets was significantly lower than the previous day, with a total turnover of 250.806 billion yuan, 6 stocks hit the upper limit, and 2 stocks hit the lower limit.
Bull vs Bear Comparison: Petroleum, coal, and finance were the main forces protecting the market. China Petroleum rose by 2%, Sinopec rose by 1.56%, and the coal sector had the highest increase. Online gaming, insurance, and securities showed relatively strong performances. Among the strong stocks, Chongqing Brewery, due to the stimulation of state-owned equity transfer news, continuously hit the upper limit, driving Yueyang Xingchang, which also had vaccine concepts, to hit the upper limit. But overall, the bullish force seemed somewhat insufficient.
Growth Stocks, new shares dropped sharply again, becoming the main bearish force, greatly damaging market sentiment; Small and medium-sized board stocks were generally affected by the fall; the secondary sectors such as instruments, electronics, media, power generation equipment, etc., had the largest declines, and the real estate sector suffered from renewed negative impacts and had a larger decline.
Focus Analysis: The bearish atmosphere in the market spread again. Growth Stocks, new shares, and small and medium-sized boards had the largest declines, and the previously active secondary sectors joined the selling ranks. Weighted stocks played a role in protecting the market. From the current situation, the bulls are only focusing on a few individual stocks, lacking leading sectors and flagship stocks.
Core Information:
The main positive factors include: 1. NDRC encourages foreign investment in new energy and other fields. Brief comment: In terms of industry, mainly encourages foreign investment in strategic emerging industries and high-end science and technology, such as new energy, new materials, biomedicine, information industry, etc.; geographically, encourages more foreign investment in central and western regions. Strategic emerging industries are one of the key theme investments this year.
2. MOFCOM publicly bids to purchase central reserve frozen pork. Brief comment: MOFCOM's move to purchase central reserve frozen pork at this time will play a positive role in preventing excessive price drops. To some extent, it guarantees the enthusiasm of producers.
3. Ministry of Culture: Focusing on five aspects to implement new financial support policies for the cultural industry. Brief comment: The cultural industry is based on creativity, is a green industry with high technological content, low resource consumption, and low environmental pollution, helping to promote economic structural adjustments, changes in economic development models, and stimulating resident consumption.
The main negative factors include: 1. Q1 GDP growth rate was 11%, CPI 2.2%. Brief comment: GDP growth far exceeded market expectations, experts said that China's economy has overheated to some extent.
2. State Council: Inflation expectations have strengthened, efforts will be made to stabilize prices. Brief comment: It is expected that the government will appropriately shift the focus of monetary policy towards price stability in the future, and it cannot be ruled out that the country will use interest rate measures to manage inflation when necessary.
3. State Council strongly suppresses high housing prices: asks for responsibility, strict credit control, adds new taxes. Brief comment: At the State Council executive meeting held on Wednesday, key deployments and emphasis were made on the next stage of economic work, one of which mentioned resolutely curbing the rapid rise in housing prices. The wording can be seen as very strict, indicating the attitude of the Chinese government towards the issue of housing prices.
4. Agricultural Bank selects 'A+H' IPO with nine investment banks listed, expected to list before September. Brief comment: The IPO underwriter of Agricultural Bank has been determined, indicating that Agricultural Bank's listing pace is faster than generally expected. This IPO adopts the 'A+H' form, the financing scale will not be less than 30 billion US dollars, which will become the world's largest IPO financing, with about 10 billion US dollars in the A-share market, putting considerable pressure on the market.
Technical Judgment: The trend of weighted stocks is relatively strong, but individual stocks generally fell, continuing the market style of the previous day. The view I discussed earlier that "under existing conditions, the probability of the stock index rising or falling sharply is relatively small, small-range fluctuations are the operating trajectory" still holds true. Individual stocks show extremely severe differentiation, the stock index shows violent fluctuations, indicating that the market mentality is in a restless state. In terms of the moving average system, the Shanghai Composite Index's bullish trend has not changed, and the index being strong while individual stocks being weak may be a phenomenon that does not change in the short term. The risks of Growth Stocks and new shares have not been resolved, and there is a tendency to spread to the small and medium-sized boards. Investors' choice of individual stocks will be critical.
