From November 28-29 (last Saturday and Sunday), at the invitation of Shenzhen's "Stock Market Dynamic Analysis" magazine, I held a professional stock training course in Shenzhen. Participants came from all over the country, including Hangzhou, Zhengzhou, and Yunnan. After two days of training, the participants clearly felt that their practical skills and understanding of the market had reached a new height, with an overall sense of great harvest! At the same time, some participants also planned to contact local training institutions upon returning home, preparing to invite me to lecture locally, which would benefit more people and be more efficient! Theoretically, I can make it on Saturdays and Sundays. It is also hoped to gain greater publicity effects! The main content of the course was behavioral finance on Saturday, focusing on the psychological problems investors encounter in investment operations, such as why investors like to take profits but dislike cutting losses? This has a significant relationship with human choices between certainty and uncertainty! Why does the herd effect among investors keep happening? The internal mechanism originates from inner fear, and uncertainty is the source of fear. Meanwhile, the "anchoring effect" on investors' price misguidance was explained, and the advantages and defects of momentum trading strategies and contrarian trading strategies were analyzed in detail! The technical class on the second day mainly discussed the consolidation and reversal patterns of candlestick charts, clarified the shortcomings of technical indicators, especially for so-called "working lines". In recent days, theme stocks have been performing crazily as the market style faces transformation. Some individual stocks have been rapidly rising with the help of news, attracting followers' attention. Especially, some local real estate stocks in Shenzhen this week have seen dramatic fluctuations, with both bulls and bears fighting fiercely. A large volume of transactions highlighted the significant divergence between the two sides regarding the future. Various messages and predictions have emerged endlessly. Pessimists believe that under the pressure of refinancing, the index will re-enact the decline from 3478 points to 2639 points, while optimists believe that under the backdrop of a macroeconomic recovery, the index will move towards new highs. Therefore, both sides fought fiercely between 3300-3100 last week. Last week's adjustment in the stock market was breathtaking, with the sharp fall of the index shocking many investors, including some professionals who were fully bullish just a few days ago, immediately turning bearish. It seemed as if the world had changed overnight, with just a few down days completely altering prediction judgments. I couldn't help but shake my head, which only showed the lack of resolve of predictors, whose all predictions lacked a solid foundation, merely following the market's restlessness and blindly following trends! Everyone talks about learning from Buffett, but old man Buffett could remain calm in the face of the tech stock craze in 99. Some of our so-called professionals lost their composure just facing a few days of decline, the contrast is obvious! My views remain unchanged, continuing to firmly believe: 1. The fall from 3361 points last week was nothing more than a large-scale washout operation created by super majors using the time difference of the economic work conference. Those who fell into the trap are those full of fear, having no confidence in their own judgment, cowards! 2. After experiencing last week's rapid fall, the index will regain its upward trend, aiming to break through the obstacle of 3478 points blocking multiple aspects, with this breakthrough expected to be completed in December! Last week, the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) saw an overall adjustment trend, mainly due to the news of GEM expansion on Tuesday. I described this aspect in last week's article, and it indeed came out this week, catching the market off guard, resulting in a single-day sharp fall. Currently, the stocks in the GEM have shown a two-level divergent trend. One group is represented by Jifeng Agricultural Machinery (300022), where the institutional stock defied the market trend and reached a high of 72 yuan. Other stocks followed, such as ShenZhou TaiYue (300002), LiSiChen (300010), YinJiang Shares (300020), DaYu Water Saving (300021), BaoDe Shares (300023). The other group remains relatively low, mainly small and medium-sized investor-favored stocks like Huayi Brothers (300027), E-Win Lithium Energy (300014), LeP Medical (300003), Tuobo Explorer (300005), AnKo Bio-Tech (300009), and LaiMei Pharmaceutical (300006) hovering at the bottom. From the overall valuation analysis of the GEM market, there currently exists some bubble, but given the relatively slow pace of GEM expansion, these 28 stocks still have some room for growth. Among them, some individual stocks are more directly manipulated; with enough funds, they can control the market. This kind of manipulation through capital accumulation cannot represent the true value of the GEM, more like gambling chips used for cashing out and trading in the market. With the increasingly fast recovery steps of China's economy in 2009, it is expected that the growth rate in 2010 will further accelerate. The improvement in exports makes it possible for GDP to reach double digits. In this big trend of economic recovery, apart from the numerous sectors mentioned earlier that will perform well, the steel industry, as an important industrial structure of the national economy, is expected to achieve comprehensive recovery! The important real estate market, especially in second-tier cities, is developing faster. The main trend is the continued urbanization wave of rural populations. The infrastructure market will again welcome another round of development after the government withdraws part of the revitalization plan. After digesting the excess capacity from the previous period, steel prices are expected to rise again! Another round of iron ore negotiations has started, and price increases are likely. The increase in upstream raw materials will naturally lead to an increase in downstream steel prices. The new construction area of real estate in 2010 will significantly increase, with housing construction expected to grow by 12.7%, becoming the largest engine driving steel demand. Currently, it is winter, so the demand is not particularly evident. This situation will change after spring. Car sales are expected to continue growing next year, becoming another support for steel prices. Currently, international steel demand is also increasing in operations. There are various methods for selecting individual stocks. Fundamental analysis focuses on mid-to-long-term layouts with stability characteristics but is powerless for ultra-short-term movements. This may not be very suitable for investors who prefer super-short-term operations, plus the authenticity of fundamental information can always be doubted, so fundamental research has never been truly implemented or widely promoted in China! Technical analysis pursues individual stock characteristics, using various theories to judge future markets, which is not a bad operational method. However, various indicators often contradict each other. Elliott Wave Theory provides detailed post-event deductions, while cycle theory shows fixed cycles when looking back. For future market changes, what can bring investors profit is the judgment of trends. Once the trend reverses, paper profits will quickly diminish. Conversely, you will enjoy the fun of asset expansion. However, judging trends is difficult. First, trends are often clear only after they finish, making it too late to act. Second, it's hard to judge primary, secondary, even micro-trends. Often, adjustments are mistaken for downward trends leading to complete liquidation, a common phenomenon in the 2009 uptrend! Or in a major downtrend, rebounds are mistakenly considered as new upswings, a common occurrence in the 2008 market crash. Yesterday afternoon, the index suddenly plummeted, combined with the herd effect and inertia-driven selling, causing the index to collapse like an avalanche, ending the day's trading with a sharp drop of 115 points. Where will the market go next? There are various prediction methods. Medium-term predictions are temporarily ignored. Let's talk about short-term predictions. We can use classic candlestick combination theory to predict the future direction of the market! On Monday, November 16th, the market pulled out a large阳line with obvious volume expansion. However, observing the next day's movement, we found that the index did not rise accordingly but instead hovered in a narrow space between 3280-3350, with the upward momentum clearly obstructed and no synchronized volume expansion. Formally, this already constituted adjustment pressure! Analyzing from the 5-minute chart, the index breaking below the critical support level of 3340 points at 13:42 was a signal to start falling! The index breaking below the critical support level of 3274 points at 14:15 clearly indicated a short-term downward trend! How will the market run next? The prediction results of wave theory will be released tomorrow or the day after. According to K-line patterns, since the fall from 3361 points, a short-term pressure has already formed. Based on K-line pattern research today, the index will form a new dynamic balance at the 3180 point position. The principal is quietly unloading goods amidst the tension. Since 1994, I have worked successively at Shenzhen China International Futures Company, Guotai Junan Securities Company, and Shenzhen Guocheng Investment Company, personally experiencing the fifteen years of turmoil in the futures and stock markets. I am skilled in technical analysis for precise trend prediction and strategic hotspot sector grasp, currently serving as the General Manager of an investment management company in Shenzhen. Classification content reading... Long-term adjustment will follow the madness. Can a few down days alter the upward steps of the market? Weekly review of the Growth Enterprise Market - GEM (No.18) Steel sector - another turning point Approaching and differing from the overall market stocks - Winner's Tool 102 Distinguishing the main trend and the secondary trend - Winner's Tool (101) Using candlestick theory to predict market trends - Winner's Tool 100 Principal quietly unloading goods amidst tension [email protected]