Another question is capital flow. Regarding China's economy, joining the WTO was an important milestone for the country’s finance. In 2005, after the reform of the RMB exchange rate mechanism, it also became a very important milestone for China's finance. We know that in the two years after 2005, liquidity was very abundant, with large amounts of capital inflow, increased monetary reserves, and growing foreign exchange reserves. Most of these reserves grew within two or three years. In fact, these were all due to the large-scale inflow of foreign capital.
From the perspective of the banking industry, China's financial system is mainly indirect finance, so the condition of the banking industry affects the overall economic operation. During the Asian financial crisis, the banking industry at that time was relatively bad. The fiscal policy was very active, but the banks couldn't pull through, loans couldn't be issued, and they were criticized for being reluctant to lend. This time there was no reluctance to lend. Why? Because this time the banking industry had sufficient resources, and their operating conditions had significantly improved.
The total amount of new projects started this year has increased by 70% to 80% compared to last year. There cannot be no new projects next year; there will still be a series of new construction projects launched. In addition, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, we see that private investment and real estate investment have also accelerated.
In terms of credit, the growth rate next year will definitely slow down compared to this year, but the increment will not be very obvious. This year is between 9.5 trillion to 10 trillion yuan, which was our prediction at the beginning of the year, and it is still our view now. If the credit undergoes a significant contraction next year, then the economy cannot bear it. At the same time, it will also push the economy towards overheating, with side effects. From the current situation, the situation of capital flow has significantly slowed down at the beginning of this year and at the end of last year, but as the recovery state of our country's economy has become apparent, and the current speed continues to accelerate, the capital inflow has also sped up.
Looking back, in recent years, the monetary policy and market expectations have shown initial tightening and adjustments, which were very cautious. Only when the economy rapidly declines does the relaxation of monetary policy occur in a short period of time, and the relaxation is very strong. This is the characteristic of monetary policy expectations.
Thus, from the entire financial perspective, the liquidity next year will still be relatively loose. Correspondingly, if there is overheating, if asset prices rise too fast, and inflation rises significantly, there is no doubt that the tightening of policies will be a logical necessity. However, I think that when the economy begins to warm up and moves towards a relatively high growth rate but is still unstable, there should not be a very tight monetary policy. At the beginning, interest rates may be adjusted once or twice, and the adjustment range will also be small. The reserve requirement ratio may also be adjusted slightly and stabilized for a period of time.
Lian Ping —— A relaxed financial environment next year can still be expected. It is worth noting that on the fiscal side, more than half of the 1.18 trillion yuan stimulus package over two years will be placed next year, which should be paid attention to. From this point of view, the fiscal policy next year will still be relatively active. Because more than half of the 1.18 trillion yuan fiscal stimulus measures will continue to be invested next year. According to estimates, the figures next year may be slightly more than this year. The investments in the first few quarters of this year have not been completed yet, and the fourth quarter is still investing, which will continue to drive the financial growth next year.
Credit next year will likely reach over 800 billion yuan, and even reaching 900 billion yuan "can" be possible. At the same time, direct financing needs attention next year. In fact, direct financing has developed relatively quickly in recent years, especially corporate bonds and stock issuance, which have clearly exceeded last year this year. We estimate that direct financing next year could reach around 2 trillion yuan. If 8 trillion yuan in credit plus 2 trillion yuan in direct financing scale, it "can" be comparable to the total financing scale of this year. The intensity of financial support should still be relatively large.
From the international market perspective, the situation has also improved somewhat. Although we cannot expect very good growth in exports next year, it will definitely be much better than this year. Because this year, the GDP decline was mainly compensated by investment. The growth rate of assistance next year will definitely be lower than this year, and the effect of investment driving GDP will weaken, but at the same time, the effect of exports will turn from negative to positive.
For developing countries, continuous growth and inflow of capital are beneficial for promoting economic growth. However, excessive inflows bring great pressure on monetary policy. Therefore, from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, capital inflows will further accelerate. And the expectation of RMB appreciation reignites the hope of capital flowing into China for higher returns.
This year, the GDP growth in the fourth quarter is relatively fast, and prices are recovering, there is no doubt about this. Next year, in the first quarter, the GDP "can" grow faster. From a year-on-year perspective, the first and second quarters of next year will be relatively high. For the whole year's growth, "can" be higher, such as above 9%, even around 10% GDP growth can be achieved. At the same time, prices will gradually rise mildly, but under various factors acting simultaneously, there may be a round of rapid price increases in the short term.
Therefore, I believe that continuing to inject 8 trillion yuan next year, whether from the loan-to-deposit ratio or the capital adequacy situation, there will not be any major problems. It should be said that as long as there is a certain external financing supplement capital under good market standards, added to the internal capital, the capital adequacy status of commercial banks will not have too many issues.
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