Although Nintendo recently created a Black Friday week of 800,000 Wii and DSi first month of 500,000 proud results, even if the PSP, Xbox360 and PS3 hardware sales also slightly upward trend, the sales of various types of software also appears to be good, but this is a specific period of time under a light, The truth is that rising sales won't stop the Japanese game market from shrinking. The root cause of the situation that continues to cause the decline of the Japanese game industry is the declining birth rate in Japan!
As early as the beginning of 2005, the population research Institute of the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare reported that due to the decreasing birthrate of the current Japanese population, and even the extreme reduction of population in the future may lead to racial annihilation, the Asahi Shimbun also called on the public to pay attention to the low birthrate in an article titled "Japan's Demise after 200 years." At present, the birth rate of the Japanese population is only about 1.35, in population theory, to maintain the current population of a race, the birth rate should not be lower than 2.08, due to the negative population growth, the Japanese population peaked in 2006, and gradually decreased after 2007 (down 16,000), according to estimates, by 2050, Its total population will be reduced by 30 million, which is 25% of the current population of Japan (120 million)!
The low birth rate brings not only the decrease of the total population, but also the problem of population aging due to the deterioration of the labor force. As early as 2000, Japan has been a typical aging society. The decrease of population and birth rate coupled with the passage of time, Japan's current pension system and a shrinking workforce will have a fatal impact on the Japanese economy.
Back to the game issue, the main player groups that supported the golden period of the Japanese game industry in the 1990s have now entered the stage of thirties, and the game group has taken the lead in entering the crisis stage of "aging", because they need to take into account practical problems such as life and the degree of support for the game is far less than in the past. The enthusiasm for games is also quite limited (the main player base of our console paradise is also showing this trend), according to the Sankei Shimbun, due to the decline in the birth rate directly caused the main player base to decrease, while the total number of new and old players is decreasing, the Japanese game market is also shrinking. After the peak in 1997, the Japanese game industry has been shrinking for many years because of the new power brought by NDS and PSP in 2005 and once slightly rebounded, but unfortunately this year suffered the most serious economic crisis in history and the reduction of spending power, the Japanese game industry will face an unprecedented grim situation.
In addition to the impact of macro social and economic issues caused by a declining birth rate on the Japanese game market, competition in the industry is also another reason, according to the Sankei Shimbun report, the number one publisher in the world in terms of performance is still occupied by Activision and Electronic Arts, rather than the booming Nintendo. In addition, in recent years, the invasion of European and American and even Korean games on the Japanese market has caused the diversion of the local market, and indirectly forced Japanese game manufacturers to divert their own business to expand overseas markets such as Europe and the United States, such as the recent NBGI set up new companies in North America. This is the combination of these various factors, in the development process of global integration of home games, Japan's game industry is indeed entering a dangerous old age!