In the future, the domestic PTA market will face considerable expansion pressure. A community in Tianjin held a "pet fashion show". This article is from the Global Textile Network. Please indicate if you reprint! The long-term supply and demand situation of PTA is bearish, and the rebound of the futures price may not be optimistic. On Monday, driven by factors such as the People's Bank of China's RRR cut and the preliminary agreement between Greece and international creditors, the domestic commodity market opened higher as a whole. However, due to the continued existence of the risk of Greek default, plus the heavy fundamentals of PTA, the PTA futures opened higher but closed lower. Since the long-term supply and demand situation of PTA remains bearish, the rebound of PTA may not be optimistic. The Greek debt risk still exists. Over the weekend, the Greek government agreed to implement a new financial compression plan, and the Greek government reached a basic agreement with international creditors. On Monday, the Eurozone finance ministers' meeting will decide whether to agree on the second round of bailout plans for Greece. If it is not approved, Greece will face debt default. Currently, the market generally estimates that the possibility of approval is relatively large. If it is approved, it will constitute a certain short-term benefit to the commodity market. However, the European Central Bank announced that it will accept bank loans as collateral for refinancing operations, which seems to indicate that Germany intends to expel Greece from the Eurozone. Even if the Eurozone passes the aid plan, facing Greece's declining economic state, this model of borrowing new debts to repay old debts cannot completely prevent Greece from defaulting in the future. In addition, the Bank of Japan recently unexpectedly announced an increase in the intensity of its loose monetary policy, and the scale of the newly added asset purchase and lending plan of 10 trillion yen created certain conditions for stimulating economic recovery. Over the weekend, the People's Bank of China announced a 50 basis point RRR cut, indicating that the reserve requirement ratio has officially entered the reduction channel, showing that China's monetary policy tends to loosen, which is a short-term benefit to the domestic commodity market. However, the Chinese government still emphasizes the need to stabilize prices, and the domestic money market is unlikely to truly loosen. The cost-driven effect may weaken. Affected by factors such as the Iranian geopolitical crisis, WTI crude oil has recently strengthened again and hit a stage high, which also drove naphtha prices to oscillate higher. However, PX prices have not fully followed, and instead have adjusted downward somewhat due to the weakness of PTA, indicating that under the circumstances where PTA profit margins are almost non-existent or even at a loss, the pressure for PX to rise further is relatively large. Currently, the spot price of PX in the Asian region hovers around $1600/ton, with a price difference of about $550/ton compared to naphtha, and the price difference with MX also hovers around $240/ton, indicating that the profit condition of PX enterprises is good. In addition, three sets of PX equipment in Asia will be inspected in February, and supply will remain tight. Combined with the current strong operation of oil prices, overall, the downside space for PX is limited. Considering that the current PX price has largely reflected the tight supply situation of PX, the cost-driven effect on PTA in the future market may weaken. The rise of PTA in the future needs to rely on the improvement of demand or expected demand. There is considerable adjustment pressure in the medium term. After several years of low-speed expansion, the domestic PTA market will once again face a peak period of expansion in 2012. Following the commissioning of BP's 200,000-ton PTA capacity expansion at the beginning of the year, another 2.7 million tons of PTA capacity expansion will come online domestically in April and May from Far East Petrochemicals and Tongkun Group, and even larger PTA capacity expansions will come online in the second half of the year. From a timing perspective, part of the PTA capacity expansion time in the first half overlaps with the traditional spring peak season for PTA, which may offset some of the benefits brought by the improvement in demand expectations. Large-scale capacity expansion is the main reason for the bearish long-term supply and demand situation of PTA. In terms of demand, the downstream demand for PTA has not yet fully started, and the improvement in demand or expected demand may not occur until March. After the holiday, the start-up rate of major weaving production bases in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces continued to increase, and most weaving factories have basically resumed operations, but they generally reported fewer orders, with many gray fabric sales being sluggish. Many weaving factories still have relatively high inventories of gray fabric, reflecting that the terminal market demand for PTA remains weak. In summary, looking at the medium to long term, the fundamentals of PTA are bearish, and there is considerable adjustment pressure.