The stock index fluctuated at the head of the market and broke through the lower part of the back. Further observation is needed-----November 23 night

by cuiyi3040 on 2012-03-05 15:03:46

The stock index vibrated and broke through the support level, requiring observation ----- Analysis and prediction review on the night of November 23, Friday: (It was expected that the Shanghai Composite Index would consolidate with reduced fluctuations on Monday. The upward consolidation signal for the stock index was at 3280 points, and the downward consolidation signal was at 3333 points. The weaker support below was at 3241 points, and the weaker resistance above was at 3352 points. The stocks discovered by the specialist, such as Weiwei Shares and Weiyanshen Shares, fell to the limit. It was reminded that the 3333 point had become the benchmark for institutional operations.

The closing price of the Shanghai Composite Index was 3308 points, quickly rising to 3320 points, stabilizing again at 3310 points, and then rising higher in two waves but failed to break through 3333 points. Approaching the noon closing, the stock index probed to 3309 points, worrying about the noon break. After the afternoon opening, it rebounded upwards to 3324 points, but during the decline, the share prices of China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and Agricultural Commercial Bank fell, showing no signs of intentional suppression of the stock index. The stock index probed to a minimum of 3305 points, and the market did not show panic. The stock index consolidated between 3316 points and 33010 points. Institutional participation pushed the volume higher, and at 2:57 PM, the stock index encountered the sensitive point of 3333 points again. The effort of institutions to push up was clearly reduced, and the stock index finally closed at 3338 points, closing at the highest point of the day, rising by 30.32 points, an increase of 0.92%, with a trading volume of 2054 billion yuan. The K-line showed a large bullish candlestick breaking through upwards, and the stock index successively set new highs for this round, but lacked the momentum and energy to attack upwards, only setting new highs in the consolidation process, and the upward floating seemed unconvincing. Considering the continuous decline of the +DI in the DMI technical indicator of the stock index daily line and the conflicting situation of the 60-minute KDJ golden cross moving upwards, whether the stock index could continue to attack upwards today still needs confirmation after tomorrow's opening. However, the medium to long-term upward trend of the stock index remains unwavering.

It is expected that the Shanghai Composite Index will have an inertial high-rise followed by a drop or an automatic adjustment followed by an upward movement tomorrow, characterized by oscillation and upward movement, with unpredictable trends. The upward signal point is at 3352 points, the resistance at 3374 points, the stronger resistance around 3400 points (a rapid rise to this level often indicates excessive gains), the oscillation support at 3310 points, and the stronger support at 3280 points (excessive gains).

Among all the listed companies, 1382 stocks rose, 77 remained unchanged, and 294 fell, indicating that the bulls controlled the market initiative, and the head market pushed higher and strengthened. 26 stocks hit the upper limit, with the food manufacturing sector rising by 4.11%. Jinjing Gongjiu, Weiwei Shares, and Lianhua Flavoring hit the upper limit. Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors rose by 3.36%, with Dahuhu Shares, Dongfang Ocean, Asia Group Xinjiang Tianye performing well. Transportation equipment rose by 2.72%, with Dongfeng Technology and Dongfeng Automobile hitting the upper limit, while JAC Motors, Jinbei Automobile, and Dimas Shares performed strongly. Non-ferrous metals rose by 2.62%, commerce and trade by 2.52%, food and beverage by 2.42%, petrochemical refining and coking by 2.52%, rubber products by 2.39%, non-ferrous metals by 2.38%, chemical products by 2.22%, and instruments and meters by 2.11%. The sectors worth attention are commerce and trade, agricultural chemicals, with Luzhou Chemicals, Chongqing Tianhua, Xiufeng Chemicals, Haitai Development, Hualian Shares, Guangbai Shares, Hangzhou Department Store, and Minmetals Development showing signs of weakness. The significant rise of heavyweight stocks was the main reason for today's oscillations. Real estate, financial insurance, energy coal, and steel sectors were in strong consolidation. Financial stocks like China Life Insurance, Shanxi Guotou, Bank of China, CITIC Securities, and China Trust Commercial Bank performed strongly. Pay attention to the trend of Haitong Securities' single plate, which may present smaller opportunities for digging out gains. The real estate sector has demands for rotational digging out gains after a long period of consolidation, with Wanda Vanke, Fenghua Shares, Zhejiang Guangsha, Wan Ye Enterprise, Huaye Property performing strongly, while Sunshine Property, Yue Hongyuan, Tiandihelv, Yinkai Development, Gentleman Business, and Leye Business showing strong upward demands. Steel stocks represented by Baosteel have signs of forceful digging out gains, including Tangsteel Shares, Shaoguan Iron & Steel, Hanggang Shares, Angang Shares, Yuansteel Plates, and Weiyang Steel Shares. These stocks might present opportunities in tomorrow's intraday trading. Today's fall and rise in the stock index were caused by Sinopec and PetroChina. Currently, these two benchmark stocks are consolidating and shaking off heavy positions, preparing to rise further, which should be positive for the stock index. Rural commercial banks adjusted for three days and received support from the 10-day moving average, also showing signs of upward rebound. The stock index will rise accordingly.

Today, the number of falling stocks was greater than the rising ones. Among the falling stocks, Wantongda fell by -2.37%, while others included Tiankang Biologic, Zhonghui Medicine, Times New Materials, Chengxing Shares, Tianke Shares, Xindu Hotel, and Shanghai Meilin. Due to the large adjustments, they all belonged to normal consolidations, which were obvious characteristics of a strong market. Therefore, the stocks that rose and then fell today were more likely undergoing shakeouts rather than bottoming out, so there was no need to panic.

On Friday, the stocks Weiwei Shares and Weiyanshen Shares hit the lower limit. Old Death Cast Pipe rose by +4.5%, Hunan Jin Huan by +3.86%, and Public Communication by +3.74%. Stocks discovered today include CITIC Securities, Shenzhen Airport, China Construction, Weiyang Steel Shares, Tangsteel Shares, Sunshine Property, Yue Hongyuan, Gentleman Business, Foreign Person Life, Minmetals Development, Chongqing Tianhua, Yaguoer, Jinlong Shares. Note that the stocks discovered are not necessarily good, and readers can observe them intraday for confirmation. Use the intraday stock price movements as a reference for learning and research purposes only, not as a basis for operation. Also, hope readers select some backup operational stocks during the hot market conditions for mutual exchange. There are no experts in the stock market, only winners and losers. Wish readers to become winners.

Trading Strategy:

1. When the stock index approaches 3300 points, one can moderately reduce positions and flexibly adjust short-term positions. In principle, one should not adopt the strategy of chasing after the downward adjustment of market hotspot stocks. Generally, maintain a position size of around 70% with a fluctuation range of 30%. Flexibly adjust the position size according to the short-term ups and downs of the stock index, but do not go full position. Use capital management to guard against stock market risks.

2. Avoid the risk of sudden spikes followed by sharp declines in individual stocks held during the trading process. Daily design flexible stop-loss and take-profit points for the stocks held. Prioritize take-profit, with stop-loss as auxiliary. Combine high-stop selling with position-taking profit. Key is accurate selection of stop-loss and take-profit points, and quick action.