[Market Observation]
The Yin Cross Star Has a Yang Scheme: Institutional Large Orders Enter the Four Major Banks
The Fragmented Consolidation is Near its End, Big Ups and Downs to Follow?
"Inspection Before the Half-Year Line": A-Share Market Rests and Recovers to Prepare for Another Battle
[Market Analysis]
Optimistic View: The Yin Cross Star Could Be a Squat Before the Leap
Rebound Takes a Break, Gathering Strength to Charge Again
China Merchants Fund: The Market Continues to Evolve Towards a Rebound
Cautious View: Possibility of Short-Term Adjustment in the Market Increases, Watch the Support at the 10-Day Moving Average
The Main Force Brews a Shocking Change in the Market, Beware of Short-Term Sharp Declines
The Yin Cross Star Has a Yang Scheme: Institutional Large Orders Enter the Four Major Banks
Statistics Show That 33.33% of Institutions Are Bullish on the Future Market, While 40% Are Bearish
Yesterday, the market faced pressure from the half-year line, with the whole day showing a narrow-range consolidation pattern. In the morning, the Shanghai Composite Index was driven by education, media, cloud computing concept sectors, approaching a new high for the year. However, it was ultimately suppressed by selling pressure. In the afternoon, the selling pressure intensified further, causing the market to dip, momentarily breaking through both the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. Subsequently, under the collective rise of large blue-chip stocks, the market rebounded, closing at 2356.86 points, with slightly reduced trading volume, and the K-line again showed a Yin Cross Star.
Analysts noted that the 60-minute K-line indicated that the market's fluctuations were within an ascending wedge, maintaining the same operational pattern and rhythm. However, amidst this consistency, changes are brewing, as the characteristic of the wedge is that the space becomes increasingly narrower, allowing less room for the market's fluctuations. As time progresses, the market has approached the top of the wedge, making the turning point increasingly imminent. Perhaps Friday will determine the outcome. According to statistics from the Securities Daily on the views of 60 brokerage institutions, 20 institutions are bullish, accounting for 33.33%, 24 institutions are bearish, accounting for 40%, while another 16 institutions remain neutral.
Only Eight Industry Categories See Net Inflows of Large Orders
From the perspective of fund flows, yesterday’s A-shares saw net outflows of large orders, with a total net outflow of 2.1 billion yuan.
Additionally, 23 industry categories saw net outflows, with the top five industries having the largest net outflows being: Chemical Fiber (3.82 billion yuan), Electronic Information (3.76 billion yuan), Machinery (2.74 billion yuan), Education Media (2.67 billion yuan), Coal Petroleum (2.08 billion yuan).
In terms of market performance, overall there were more falling than rising A-shares. In the Shanghai market, 332 A-shares rose while 522 fell; in the Shenzhen market, 509 A-shares rose while 814 fell. Among all A-shares, 37.56% rose. From the perspective of limit-up and limit-down stocks, there were 14 limit-up A-shares in both markets, and no limit-down stocks, indicating that bullish sentiment remains.
Industry sectors mostly fell. The seven rising sectors were: Power (1.80%), Education Media (0.41%), Telecommunications (0.37%), Water Supply & Gas (0.26%), Computers (0.23%), Other Industries (0.11%), and Instruments & Meters (0.07%). The five sectors with the largest declines were: Insurance (-1.31%), Liquor & Food (-0.99%), Coal & Petroleum (-0.86%), Nonferrous Metals (-0.69%), and Machinery (-0.63%).
Three Factors Contributing to the Stock Index Drop
Market analysts pointed out that the main reasons for yesterday's downward movement in A-shares were threefold:
Firstly, uncertainties in external factors increased. Tensions in the Middle East have risen again, oil prices remain high, and Greece's bailout efforts have encountered setbacks. These uncertainties to some extent interfere with overseas markets. Overnight, European and American stock indices began to stagnate at high levels, and today, the Asia-Pacific market adjusted comprehensively, suppressing the space for A-shares to continue rebounding.
Secondly, there is adjustment pressure from a technical perspective. After the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets attacked the 60-day moving average, enthusiasm for chasing highs weakened, and trading volumes did not effectively expand. The 120-day moving average became a short-term resistance level. Without sufficient adjustments, it would be difficult to break through effectively. Yesterday's index decline after reaching a high was a technical adjustment.
Thirdly, January's credit and monetary data were much lower than market expectations, which could only be attributed to seasonal factors due to the overlap of two festivals, especially the inclusion of the complete Spring Festival holiday and the continuous outflow of funds outside the table. The key lies in how much improvement February's data can bring. Before then, it would be difficult to change the market's expectations regarding liquidity.
However, positive news countering the above negative factors also came in strong support. CSRC Chairman Guo Shuqing stated on Wednesday at the establishment meeting of the China Listed Companies Association that the dynamic P/E ratio of the CSI 300 blue-chip stocks is currently 11.2 times, showing rare investment value. Analysts believe that this will continuously ferment over a period of time, driving the return of blue-chip stock values.
Directional Choice Approaching
Yesterday's market once again witnessed a rare phenomenon: Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank reappeared with mysterious ten-thousand hand buy orders, particularly concentrated in Industrial and Commercial Bank. Meanwhile, statistics showed that Bank of China (601988) received large order support, with net inflows of 144 million yuan and 150 million yuan respectively. Guangzhou Wanlong believes that corresponding to this is Chairman Guo Shuqing's explicit statement that blue-chip stocks show rare investment value, fully demonstrating that although the index experienced a slight adjustment forming a Yin star, behind it large funds were secretly entering and deploying positions. With the endorsement of the CSRC chairman, it indicates that the main force has already planned for the future market.
At the same time, Guangzhou Wanlong believes that from all aspects, the funds entering the four major banks are undoubtedly from super-major forces. We believe that in the near future, once bank stocks erupt, they will drive the index to attack again and reach their goal directly. Therefore, the current pullback is a good opportunity to buy.
Lianxun Securities expressed that from recent trends, the index has consolidated around the 2350-point area for several days, with bullish sentiment and energy gradually dissipating. Although some individual stocks remain strong, the single-sector bullish effect cannot sustain continuous market momentum, and market resonance has never appeared. The adjustment of large-cap weighted stocks and the performance of small- and medium-sized capitalization stocks always appear mismatched, increasing market divergence, and the upward pressure on the index is gradually increasing. It is expected that the market will still face further adjustment pressure in the short term.
Shenyin Wanguo believes that the index faces short-term pressure from the half-year line and may experience fluctuations, but the rebound trend has not changed, and the recovery of oversold stocks is expected to continue.