Tie Ning: As the president, I feel unworthy and anxious; the Writers Association needs to "eliminate bureaucracy"; traditional literature has not perished; I cried due to the immense pressure when I first took office.
In the last 6 trading days, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by only 9.33 points. The trajectory of the A-share market has shifted from a previous strong climb to a slow "crawl" to the right. Why has the good upward momentum of the large-cap stocks suddenly stopped? How long will this "crawl" continue?
"Investors originally expected liquidity to be more abundant, eventually entering the stock market, but now this expectation has weakened. In January, new loans amounted to only 738.1 billion yuan, down 22.9% year-on-year," said Ma Jiaying of Xinda Securities. She pointed out that apart from insufficient capital supply, there may soon be an increase in stock supply. Ernst & Young stated that mainland IPOs could reach 300 billion yuan this year, an increase of about 10% compared to last year. Due to insufficient capital supply in the stock market, the small-scale rebound at the beginning of this year seems unsustainable.
Furthermore, from the 30-minute K-line chart of the Shanghai Composite Index, the trend of the large-cap stocks has formed an ascending wedge. Senior investor Li Buwei stated, "An ascending wedge is a terrible formation." He pointed out that from a technical analysis perspective, the future of an ascending wedge will weaken, "Unless there is a rapid upward attack to change this formation. Otherwise, at any time below 2400 points, it will encounter stronger resistance and fall back, and the ascending wedge will ultimately break downward."
Special invited analyst Yunnong of Sohu Securities Live Room believes that the space for maneuvering between bulls and bears is getting smaller and smaller, and the showdown will occur within the next day or two. "Investors should appropriately reduce their positions and prepare for both scenarios."