126735.5 120112.5 20100913 25.8 125527.0 My judgment on the market trend in the second half of last year was, overall, accurate, even precise. Hehe, saying that sounds a bit like our school's guidance; every meeting always results in me being praised. Isn't it? I'm actually boasting about myself here. However, what I want to talk about is not this, but rather why I made such judgments. 20101028 20100906 1600 [Judgment Criteria for Capital Accumulation]: After private capital involvement, within 10 trading days, the stock price basically remains above the closing price of the day when large capital was involved, and the trading volume must be much smaller than the day when large capital was involved. Let’s revisit how I correctly predicted that there would definitely be a rally in October last year. Everyone must remember that in 2010, the largest share unlocking by major and minor non-tradable shareholders occurred in October, with over 20 billion shares unlocked. In November, it was slightly less but still close to 1.8 billion shares. At the time, more than 90% of the media were bearish, and in the few days before the holiday, the market fell by approximately 3%. The trading volume shrank to 70 billion yuan. When I discussed with others in my comments, I very firmly stated that the downside was limited, the probability of an upward movement was high, and it was very likely that there would be a medium-term rally after the holiday. Why did I say that? Think about it: under such immense pressure, just before the long National Day holiday when large capital usually seeks safety, why was the trading volume so low, and why was the decline so small? We must understand from the direction of the big money in the market. If we rely on public opinion, the probability of being deceived is over 90%! Therefore, since large funds did not genuinely sell short (which actually means creating a false bearish sentiment) before the massive unlocking of shares, we should be bullish. 64728 Industrial Bank Blogger Reply: This price is almost at the 60-day moving average, and there should be support. Future expected selling price is 27.85 yuan. (2011-01-10 13:33:15) [Edit] [Delete] 15.7 601166 In complete agreement with the analysis of the two netizens above. Clearly, from a short-term perspective, this operation was premature, as operating at the 20-day moving average would have been more prudent. This purchase at the highest point was partly due to aggressive reasons and partly due to the outbreak of systematic risks in mid-to-small cap stocks. Mid-to-small cap stocks that have been bullish for two years are likely to reverse this year. Currently, signs of reversal are emerging, and in the future, we need to appropriately reduce expectations for the valuation of mid-to-small cap stocks. Profit margin 5000 74844 Zhen翔腾达 -46900 3000 [Major Market Background]: Global currency competitive devaluation, countries around the world shifting from reserve currencies to reserve resources, especially precious metals and strategic materials. The dollar index is accelerating its decline, gold prices continue to hit new highs, negative interest rates, RMB appreciation, economic development directional transformation. Date 0.865 20101119 121941.0 1200 [Big Capital Involvement Method]: Rising participation, rising price and volume, such as the situation of 600690 on 20090513; plummeting participation, falling price and rising volume, such as the situation of 000069 on 20100630; other methods, omitted, such as 002353. 20100826 On September 23, 2010, I said on Blog Post No. 220 that since the 2319 point, generally speaking, the market has been running in a box. Its bottom is the 2319 area, and it is estimated that it will not reach this low point this year. If there is no significant policy bearish news, this adjustment is likely to find support at the 60-day moving average. If there is another major bearish event, it is estimated that the adjustment will reach around 2400 points. The top of the box should be in the 3000-point area, and it is estimated that multiple attempts will be needed to break through. Currently, the daily trading volume of the market has severely contracted, showing characteristics of "low volume and low price." The probability of the market retesting 2700 points after the holiday is relatively high. Whether it can break through needs further observation. 41250 600362 57360 ? 100000.0 32.3 20100109 Registered designated 002181 -71520 Blogger Reply: 0 1400 9.07 [Operation Comment]: This year, the stock market situation should be much better than last year. On one hand, the economic fundamentals continue to improve. Large-cap, high-weight financial stocks are improving both fundamentally and technically. On the other hand, the amount of share unlocking by major and minor non-tradable shareholders is much less than last year. The only concern for mainline funds is IPOs and refinancing. But after last year's global stock market performance ranked third from the bottom, the regulators have clearly realized the significant impact of large-scale financing. It is expected that this year's financing volume will be less than last year, not more. That is to say, if the biggest bearish factor has high certainty, the large funds in the market will formulate reasonable trading plans and take action. If the market generates profitable effects in the future, then the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 4000 points is not impossible. Blogger (Post #18) sold Industrial Bank for position control needs. 42.8 20101008 600362 20100106 Stock ? Summary 72550.6 (2011-03-01 10:41:14) [Important Market Background]: Global currency competitive devaluation, countries around the world shifting from reserve currencies to reserve resources, especially precious metals and strategic materials. Accelerating decline of the Dollar Index, gold prices repeatedly hitting new highs, negative interest rates, RMB appreciation, transformation of economic development direction. 37.55 Jiangxi Copper Company 1800 4054.6 72000 Jiangxi Copper Company ? -51680 26.97 73116.7 600362 Zhen翔腾达 Blogger (Post #35) Participated in 002408, calculated at the current price of 47.6. 5000 On October 23, 2010, I said in Blog Post No. 220 that since the 2319 point, overall, the market has been running in a box. Its bottom is the 2319 region, and this year it is estimated that it will not reach this low position. If there is no significant policy bearish factor, this adjustment is likely to find support at the 60-day moving average. If another major bearish factor appears, it is estimated that the adjustment will reach around 2400 points. The top of the box should be in the 3000-point region, and it is estimated that multiple attempts will be needed to break through. Currently, the daily trading volume of the market has severely contracted, showing characteristics of "low volume and low price." After the holiday, the probability of the market retesting 2700 points is relatively high. Whether it can break through needs further observation. 44650 20101020 1600 [Operation]: 2400 Code 0.7% Selling Price 000918 50159.0 2400 1600 0 11.0% -1.5% Brother Xiaohai provided excellent commentary on 002408 in Posts #47 and #48, summarizing that the price fluctuations of methyl ethyl ketone (commonly known as MEK solvent) are quite large. For Zhen翔腾达, whose MEK sales revenue accounts for over 65% of total revenue, the profit elasticity space is also quite large. Once the MEK price reverses, the stock price will also reverse. 1.3% ? 1600 20100827 100000 Market Perception (No. 231) 50000 The main reason for being optimistic about the market before the Spring Festival, which was already explained above, is that under such tight market conditions, the stock index still defied many experts' predictions and showed a slight upward attack strength, indicating that large funds in the market are absorbing! It can be said that there are countless reasons for the market to rise or fall, and you can never logically argue whether the market should rise or fall. People like Sha Minnong and Hou Ning, who only shout bullish or bearish, besides misleading others, harm themselves too! If we leave the judgment of the market's direction to the large funds, we will find that not only is the accuracy rate extremely high, but the timing is also very precise. 1300 On October 8th, after the National Day holiday, I published Blog Post No. 222 titled "The Shanghai Composite Index Sounds the Horn for the March to 3000 Points (No. 222)." That day, the market closed at 2738 points, and Jiangxi Copper gave me a pleasant surprise in this wave of the market! Zhen翔腾达 66062.4 -61880 47206.6 44.7 -2.0% January 10, 2011 Judging from today's market, the possibility of my pre-year prediction coming true has surged to over 90%. Continue holding and observing. (February 10, 2011, 14:58:28) From the start of blogging, I have quoted an ancient sentence countless times: Although one may have intelligence, it is better to ride the trend; although one may have a foundation, it is better to wait for the right time. "Time" and "trend" are the basics for ordinary people's investment. If you do not have the sharp eyesight to see the future San Yike, future Guizhou Maotai, or future Yunnan Baiyao, you must consider the issues of time and events. Over these four years, I increasingly feel that I am suitable for investing based on value analysis while considering the trends. Value analysis is still my weak point currently, but it doesn't matter. By comprehensively judging the will of large funds, value analysis, and technical analysis, I can make up for this shortcoming. 104471.9 -57960 121824.1 50000 Zhen翔腾达 SSE Composite Index 78602.5 99071.4 2.3% 1200 74122.4 January 6, 2011 February 15, 2011 33.5 12.1% 15.35 ? ? November 1, 2010 Blogger (Post #2) Significant capital involvement in Industrial Bank, plan to buy half the position at 25.8 yuan. (January 10, 2011, 11:37:44) ? 52570 4052.6 Effective breakout of the huge trading volume on January 20. (March 1, 2011, 10:42:08) 41.58 54557.3 Jiangxi Copper Company ? (February 16, 2011, 09:30:35) Rui Fu Aggressive Attached: Simulation Account for Capital Will 002408 42.75 002408 47100 124249.5 Number of Shares About four and a half months 119726.8 [Blog Post No. 230] An Eastmoney netizen (Post #36) tries his hand, hehe. I think we should watch its ability to break the previous high. It seems like a rounded bottom, usually followed by a retest of the 20-day line. The 60-day line hasn't turned upwards yet. (March 1, 2011, 11:55:59 IP:58.248.216.*) Blogger Reply: It's possible. The closing price on January 20 was 43.74 yuan, similar to the price of the 20-day moving average. (March 1, 2011, 17:52:11) 47707 600362 47.6 35.85 -47080 1800 1400 32.2 2603 Jia Kexieng Before the Spring Festival, I once again expressed my view on the market in the comments section. [Blog Post No. 229] Blogger (Post #4)(Blog Post No. 228, Post #42) Currently, market funds can be said to be very tight, with the weighted average interest rate for 7-day repurchase closing at 7.69%. The market expects an interest rate hike before the holiday. This expectation is not without reason, as the central bank may use the long holiday to raise interest rates. If the market remains strong in the next few days, it indicates that there will be a medium-term rally after the holiday, and the market will return to the 3000-point level. If the market adjusts in the next few days, it suggests continued volatility after the holiday, and it is not ruled out that the 2600-point support will be tested again. (January 31, 2011, 09:05:11) Regarding short to medium term positions, continue to hold and go long. For me, because I was fully invested before the holiday, I have been continuously reducing positions recently. I reduced my holdings in China Merchants Bank last Friday. 4.5% 105284.5 1100 August 26, 2010 43.25 Test Account bought Jiangxi Copper Company, calculated at 43.25 yuan. 41.9 Website www.uvdgnet.com Those familiar with Song Jiang won't be few www.uvdgnet.com Irrelevant to the position of this website www.uvdgnet.com You are currently posting anonymously www.uvdgnet.com