The US trade deficit and unemployment rate that the market was anxiously waiting for were finally released yesterday. The data was better than expected. Although the dollar did not experience significant fluctuations, it basically recovered from the previous day's decline, reaching a high of 89.67, higher than the previous day's high point. If the US Dollar Index can test above 90.00 and maintain operation within the range of 90.00-90.70, the medium-term downward pressure will be reduced; conversely, if it continues to break down, the initial support level is at 88.80. If it continues to break down, the downward trend of the US Dollar Index can be basically confirmed.
Euro vs US Dollar: Overnight, due to the narrowing of the US trade deficit, the Euro/USD was pressed down to 1.2043, triggering stop-loss orders below this level, causing the Euro/USD to remain in low-level fluctuations subsequently. Only by breaking through 1.2120 can the Euro reduce its medium-term downward pressure and have the possibility of testing 1.2200. In the short term, the downward pressure on the Euro/USD is limited, finding strong support near 1.2000, with rebound targets between 1.2080-1.2120.
Pound Sterling vs US Dollar: Since last Friday, the upward trend of the Pound/USD has stopped three times near 1.7720. Overnight, the exchange rate was resisted at this level for the third time, being suppressed by the continuous demand for the US dollar, causing the Pound/USD to fall to a low of 1.7580 and close at 1.7600. For the Pound to stabilize above 1.7810, the double bottom for the medium term will be established; conversely, there is a possibility of retesting 1.7140. Short-term resistance levels are at 1.7670, 1.7720; support levels are at 1.7580, 1.7520.
US Dollar vs Japanese Yen: Overnight, the USD/JPY was boosted by central bank buy orders and the strong rise of the US dollar, rising nearly 100 points from 113.40, reaching a high of 114.42. The daily chart shows that the USD/JPY has been in a single-sided downward channel since December last year, with a relatively strong bearish sentiment in the medium term. In the short term, the USD/JPY found support at 113.50, slightly rebounding but with insufficient momentum. Resistance levels are at 114.90, 115.50; support levels are at 113.80, 113.50.
US Dollar vs Swiss Franc: Overnight, traders holding US dollar shorts were completely shattered, with the USD/CHF exchange rate quickly rising from 1.2750 to around 1.2890 without giving investors a chance to catch their breath. However, due to the lack of follow-up buy orders at the high point, the USD/CHF remained in range-bound fluctuations. Since the beginning of the year, the USD/CHF has hovered between 1.2680-1.2900. Only by breaking below 1.2780 can confidence in the USD/CHF shorts increase, with further support at 1.2720; resistance levels are at 1.2900, with stronger resistance at 1.2950.
Australian Dollar vs US Dollar: Overnight, the AUD/USD fell from near 0.7550 to the support at 0.7500, then maintained fluctuations within the range. On the daily chart, the AUD/USD fluctuates near the W-bottom neckline position. If it can effectively break through 0.7580, an upward trend will be determined; support below is at 0.7480.
US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar: Overnight, the USD/CAD began a significant rise as the EUR/USD approached the 1.2000 support level, with the exchange rate rising to the resistance at 1.1653. If it can hold steady at this level and test 1.1760, the double bottom on the daily chart will be established, leading to a reversal in the future; conversely, if it continues to break down, the initial support is at 1.1570, and breaking below could lead to a further drop to 1.1450.
Huafu Investment (www.huafufa.com) ---- Lin Xiufen