From the actual economic situation, a rebound that is too high will not be supported by the real economy; the industrial growth rate has already fallen by 11 percentage points on a month-on-month basis. However, one, China's stock market is not entirely a barometer of the economy; two, because the real estate market is temporarily unworkable and investments are unavoidable, some funds may exit the real estate market and shift to the stock market. If the bulls continue to force a rally, there is still potential for such a move. In recent stock market consolidations, whenever there was a tendency to hesitate and decline (often around 11:10-20 am and 1:30 pm), PetroChina, Sinopec, sometimes along with China Merchants Bank, would be simultaneously lifted by unknown large amounts of capital within seconds. This was done to boost morale, turning declines into gains, which clearly showed signs of manipulation. On Friday’s sharp drop, there were again significant buys in PetroChina at 14:04-14:08 with over 800,000 shares, and similar large orders appeared in Sinopec during this period, but this time they failed. The stock market continued its downward adjustment. Of course, this is just an analysis. I don't know if such actions are allowed abroad.
"Bull markets require stock selection." There are still quite a few good sectors and stocks, mainly new energy, liquor, consumer goods, department stores, agriculture, military industry, and pharmaceuticals, all of which have performed well. Especially in the SME board, some good stocks have been rising daily and weekly, continuously setting new highs, almost breathtaking. Investors have long forgotten the peaks of 3500 points and 6124 points. This shows the importance of stock selection. Stock selection must consider the macro trend while understanding public sentiment, buying "public favorites" rather than solely focusing on P/E ratios. Recently listed small-cap stocks like Zhujiang Beer and Jiashitang rose on their second day due to speculation in alcohol and pharmaceutical concepts. Similarly, Jihua Group, issued at 3.5 yuan, rose to 5.7-6 yuan in a day, driven by speculation in the military industry concept. This reflects a partial bull market atmosphere. (Of course, it is not recommended to chase these stocks now as sectors like new energy have already adjusted.)
Besides traditional factors such as GDP growth rate, CPI (urban-rural consumer goods price index), new loan money supply, M2 (currency + current deposits + time deposits) growth changes, corporate performance, asset structure, and reorganization, we should also include fluctuations in the dollar and euro, as well as the impact of stock index futures.
Yes, like the little girl Fang Deng in the movie "Tangshan Earthquake," who lost her memory after the earthquake and became timid and strange, only waking up and becoming emotionally connected again after the second major earthquake (Wenchuan). His feeling is correct; the stock market has become an entirely new one, completely unfamiliar. Investors need to be cautious.
On Friday, the stock market experienced the third adjustment since the sprint to 2700 points (which, so far, should still be considered a strong adjustment). We are closely monitoring the market trend for next week.
The impact of stock index futures on the market is quite significant. Initially, it went against the majority's expectation that the index futures would bring benefits and look forward to the era of large blue chips. Starting from April 16th, it kept going short continuously. Every rebound was an opportunity to go short, continuously digging two big holes in the A-share market on May 31st and June 29th, continuously pushing downwards. This made all those who went long or held stocks suffer heavy losses. From July 2nd, it took advantage of everyone's nervousness, continuously going long, forcing a rally, making all those who went short suffer heavy losses.
A seasoned investor who has been through the securities market for over ten years recently talked to me about how confused and panicked he felt: "This stock market has changed drastically. From last November to December, it fell for seven or eight months without any formal rebound. Since the rebound on July 2nd, it has been rising non-stop, endlessly, without any decent large pullback." "It's like an old friend whose personality and temper have completely changed, becoming unrecognizable."
Two, three weeks of hot spots in the partial bull market
Now, at around 2700 points, the divergence between the bulls and bears is getting larger. You can see the increasing open interest in September's stock index futures, indicating intense and brutal battles between the bulls and bears. Some large brokers are very skilled in stock index futures and are now heavily adding shorts, but futures are one-on-one, meaning someone is stubbornly bullish. This is somewhat similar to the 327 government bond futures incident in February 1995 (which ended with the failure of the short side led by Guan Jinsheng of Wanguo Securities).
Our era's greatest scientist —— Reprinted from the Israel Pavilion
However, China's stock market remains sunny in the west despite rain in the east. Those large-cap stocks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, Construction Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, China Yangtze Power, CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities (issued at 20 yuan, now at 14 yuan), etc., are still hovering near the July 2nd index level or have risen very little. It shows that there is still a lack of large funds seen in the bull markets of 2005-2006 and October 1998-August 1999. There is insufficient confidence in switching to a large-cap stock market.
One, Several Major Variables in Our Stock Market
From a global stock market perspective, the real economy will ultimately play a decisive role in the long run. However, from the perspective of stock index futures and capital speculation, a forced rally by the bulls is not impossible. So far, most institutions remain optimistic about the future market. However, the higher the stock market goes, the greater the divergence will be.
Asian United Pavilion: No queue, national souvenirs are exquisite and affordable. Asian neighboring countries are very enthusiastic.
A Completely Unfamiliar New Stock Market
Director of Fudan University's Financial and Capital Market Research Center, Professor Xie Baosan
This time, the bulls used the futures method, taking small steps quickly to force a rally, finally reaching 2700 points on Thursday after six attempts. The Shanghai volume also exceeded 1.3 billion yuan on Thursday, forming a partial bull market pattern.
Of course, internal factors are the decisive ones. The big fall and adjustment from December last year to July 2nd were mainly due to the central government's extremely strict real estate control policies and the high-pressure stance that was implied but not implemented. The two plans for the Shanghai "new property tax" had a huge impact, shocking both some people in the Shanghai municipal government and national investors. It seemed to be at the point of "no turning back." Due to the crucial position of real estate in China's economy (the longest industrial chain, affecting 42 industries), and its influence on the overall national industry, it caused the stock market to keep falling.
But later, after the leaders returned from abroad, people found that the two new property tax proposals submitted by Shanghai had not been submitted to the State Council Standing Committee for discussion and were shelved for a long time (the most important reason being the sharp shrinkage of real estate market transaction volumes, with the China Real Estate Association writing several letters requesting the postponement of new regulatory measures). It can be seen that the leaders also worried about overly aggressive regulation leading to a Japanese-style economic recession. Therefore, the current real estate regulation mainly focuses on differentiated interest rate loan policies and investigating idle land, which will persist for a longer period (these measures are expected to work. During recent research in Shenzhen, it was discovered that housing prices in Shenzhen are generally cheaper than in Shanghai, with Shenzhen properties experiencing a temporary halt in price increases and hesitation). Thus, the real estate market stabilized, but it wouldn't drop too much for the time being. Stock market experts predicted that policies might loosen in the fourth quarter, combined with the fact that the market had fallen for too long and too deeply, so the stock market rebounded.
Website www.uvdgnet.com This is an eternal law www.uvdgnet.com Stock prices gradually stabilized and stopped falling in the past month www.uvdgnet.com Conducting in-depth research on the solvency regulatory systems of major countries and regions worldwide www.uvdgnet.com