Who is demonizing stock index futures? y7
On April 16th, the stock index futures officially made its debut. The market today was filled with excitement and anxiety, just like a newlywed bride covering her head with a red veil, at a loss of what to do. The index basically fluctuated slightly around the natural closing price of 3166 points. There was a sharp decline in the afternoon, but it quickly rebounded. The market lacked direction and there were no prominent hotspots; the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM), however, fell significantly. The market is currently awaiting the arrival of the stock index futures.
The introduction of stock index futures is another major event in the securities market after margin trading and short selling, which will profoundly influence the development trajectory of the market and the behavior of investors. Currently, the market's understanding of it is still preliminary. How it will affect our market and the extent of its influence on the market remains uncertain. The market has no intention of engaging in battle, and completes a trading day in confusion.
Tomorrow is a brand-new day, and how will the market welcome its new bride? In the past, the market had heated discussions about stock index futures. Many experts who have never touched stock index futures came out to preach, saying that the market would be this way and the future market would be that way. However, the real situation is probably unknown even to themselves. In fact, very few people in our market have real combat experience in stock index futures. Some may exist among QFII, QDII, and companies with investment businesses in the Hong Kong market. The stock index futures simulation platform has been open for a long time, and there are many participants. But everyone knows that the simulation is like playing video games; you can play however you want, which is far from the real-life combat where blood and tears are shed. As a result, everyone is guessing, leading to some seemingly plausible but actually erroneous statements in the market. Up to now, we still don't know whether they are true or false, right or wrong.
One statement goes: according to research on other markets, the stock market will soar before the launch of stock index futures, and fall afterward. Based on this, one should operate accordingly. Tomorrow, the stock index futures will be launched, but so far, there is no sign of a significant rise in the stock market. Looking further ahead, the rise from last year until now could be considered significant, but everyone knows that this is due to the effect of the 4 trillion yuan investment and the 10 trillion yuan credit. Looking closer, if the over 200-point increase since February counts as a significant rise, it was merely a fluctuation within the box formed since the August fall last year, not qualifying as a significant rise. Moreover, this small rise may not be related to the stock index futures. Given the good economic conditions, decent corporate profits, and the rise in peripheral stock markets, the stock market might have risen even without the expectation of stock index futures. Therefore, the aforementioned conclusion is unreliable. Thus, judging that the stock market will fall after the launch of stock index futures also lacks basis.
Another statement goes: before the launch of stock index futures, large funds will rush to buy blue-chip stocks, causing them to soar. This conclusion is more imagined than actual. Instead, what we see is the crazy rise of small-cap stocks led by the SME board and GEM, which the market calls a localized bull market. Meanwhile, blue-chip stocks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, and Sinopec remain stagnant. The SME board and GEM started to fall two days ago because they rose too much. Investors operating based on the aforementioned reasoning did not make money, and the reasoning is misleading. Indeed, we saw a slight rise in some blue-chip stocks, such as those in the coal, non-ferrous metals, and insurance sectors. However, no one believes that this is due to stock index futures leading to buying behavior. The market generally considers it to be caused by the expectations of RMB appreciation and inflation. Plus, these blue-chip stocks have low prices and high safety margins, making them somewhat attractive. The involvement of some funds in these sectors has little to do with stock index futures.
In the future, stock index futures may become an important variable affecting the market. However, within a certain period, due to unclear understanding and limited participation, the impact of stock index futures on the market will definitely be minimal, almost negligible. In the long term, stock index futures may influence market trends, but looking at foreign markets, the impact is not fundamental, just an important disturbance factor. Currently, the judgment of the market can exclude the impact of stock index futures, and I insist on grasping the market based on fundamentals.
My judgment on the future market is as follows: first, the index will rise with fluctuations, entering a box centered around 3200 points, then consolidating. The subsequent trend will be judged based on the situation at that time; second, the SME board and GEM will adjust to a certain extent, lasting half a month to a month. During this period, other emerging industry small-cap stocks will still perform well and can be paid attention to. After the adjustment of SME board and GEM stocks, there will still be opportunities; third, due to the existence of RMB appreciation and inflation, there will be well-performing stocks in resource-related sectors such as oil, non-ferrous metals, and coal, worthy of exploration. Financial sector stocks such as insurance, brokers, and gold sectors are also worth getting involved in; fourth, regional sectors such as Sichuan-Chongqing, Xinjiang, Tibet, and Inner Mongolia still have investment value, and stocks can be chosen based on their economic characteristics.
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